hawkstwelve Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 21z vs 15z RAP. It still snows more after this frame... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: This trend gif of the past four runs shows the NW trend on the GFS a bit better. I'd expect one of the model camps to break towards the other on the 00z runs tonight. I'll be waiting with bated breath... What I’ve noticed is it has moved the heavier snow farther west into Nebraska 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 Just now, CentralNebWeather said: What I’ve noticed is it has moved the heavier snow farther west into Nebraska Yeah the NW trend definitely benefits both of our areas. Crossing my fingers we can both score another round! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Yeah the NW trend definitely benefits both of our areas. Crossing my fingers we can both score another round! Sounds great. I then hope to pick up the waves off the mountains. Those probably stay well southwest of your area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbone8 Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 2 hours ago, indianajohn said: WSW just issued for NWI ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations in excess of 6 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 to 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northern Indiana and southwest Michigan. * WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Conditions are expected to deteriorate through the day Friday. Wind gusts from the west of 35 to 45 mph are possible Friday night and Saturday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 EAX showing 2 -3 for me but my confidence is low on this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 29 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 21z vs 15z RAP. It still snows more after this frame... 8" for MSP I wish! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, Clinton said: EAX showing 2 -3 for me but my confidence is low on this one. I don’t think Hastings has much of an idea either. The earlier models trended down. Now they seem to be trending back up. It’s not like this system is next week. It is supposed to start here after lunch tomorrow. Model mayhem around here imo. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 Local met just showed 3.5" for MSP from their in house model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 It’s very bizarre how both oax and gid are downplaying this. A WWA for my area with 5” of blowing snow while most models are showing my area between 6-10”. We shall see. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 18z GEFS practically doubled the mean for Sioux Falls from the 12z run. Obviously, as NWS FSD mentioned in their AFD, ensembles shouldn't be used a great deal at this point given the mesoscale features at play that they are unable to pick up. But could be a sign of where the 00z GFS may end up going tonight. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 6 minutes ago, gabel23 said: It’s very bizarre how both oax and gid are downplaying this. A WWA for my area with 5” of blowing snow while most models are showing my area between 6-10”. We shall see. It is odd. Hastings with a very poor discussion with any details. Really never talked about various models. Now the ICON and GFS have increased amounts again. 18z Canadian looks very juiced on the meteocentre site. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bumblin Bman09 Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 10 minutes ago, gabel23 said: It’s very bizarre how both oax and gid are downplaying this. A WWA for my area with 5” of blowing snow while most models are showing my area between 6-10”. We shall see. Let Omaha have this one, gabel23… LOL 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 15 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: I don’t think Hastings has much of an idea either. The earlier models trended down. Now they seem to be trending back up. It’s not like this system is next week. It is supposed to start here after lunch tomorrow. Model mayhem around here imo. The morning of the last storm they showed me getting a dusting - 2 and I got 6. I don't like my odds with them showing accumulations for me lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 11 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said: Let Omaha have this one, gabel23… LOL For sure!! Hope you guys get buried!!! Just weird with what models are showing further west. Don’t want to jinx you guys but you’re looking good! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbone8 Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 975.81mb, wow... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 27 minutes ago, james1976 said: Local met just showed 3.5" for MSP from their in house model. Is that the "blammo" guy that used to be on KWWL? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 10 Report Share Posted January 10 31 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Is that the "blammo" guy that used to be on KWWL? Haha I can't remember that guy's name but I know it's not him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Mets would much better forecast lighter than saying 10-14 and getting 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11 Author Report Share Posted January 11 This is relatively low confidence, but if I had a gun to my head I'd go with about 6" here. Riding near the edge of the better snows though and this setup in particular is a very dynamic/volatile one with substantial lingering questions on precise surface low track/intensity as well as timing the erosion of any warm layers aloft, not to mention exact surface temps and the role they will play in accumulation. Would not at all be surprised to come in with less, but some minor tweaks in a positive direction could result in higher amounts. So basically, 6" is the best guess/middle ground approach at this point. Although I expect a large percentage of the snow to be of the wetter variety, that will end up freezing as temps drop and could lead to an outsized blowing/drifting impact for whatever amount of drier snow does manage to fall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 18z Euro remained pretty much unchanged. Slightly higher totals in NE. Not really surprising there were no large changes considering 18z runs don't get new data input. 00z runs on the other hand will (hopefully) be very telling. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 18z Euro remained pretty much unchanged. Slightly higher totals in NE. Not really surprising there were no large changes considering 18z runs don't get new data input. 00z runs on the other hand will (hopefully) be very telling. Do you have the Central US one for this through the whole storm? Thanks in advance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Just now, KTPmidMO said: Do you have the Central US one for this through the whole storm? Thanks in advance Kind of hard to capture the entire storm in one frame with Kuchera but here's the portion with the highest amounts around MO. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 I guess it’s go-time from a models perspective… if the 0z suite keeps improving Nebraska totals, imagine OAX will follow suit in the overnight update… high stakes! Here we go! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Quote 000 FXUS63 KOAX 102331 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 531 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 ..... By midnight Thursday night, northerly winds of 20-30 mph build in as CAA kicks into a higher gear. The thermometer Friday morning should read within a couple of degrees on either side of zero, but with the gusty winds, wind chills will slip as low as -25. Near white-out conditions due to the blowing, drifting, and lofting of the notably fluffy snow are expected Friday morning (SLR may start off at 10:1 and climb to near 20:1 by Friday morning). Should the gusts of 35mph be progged to last three hours or more, the winter storm warning may need to be upgraded to a blizzard warning. Confidence isn`t quite there as of yet. Either way, travel will be difficult to impossible and cancellations are likely. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 HRRRRRR up first. Does it stick with it's NW solution or does it bend the knee to the global models? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: HRRRRRR up first. Does it stick with it's NW solution or does it bend the knee to the global models? hrrr and rap are notorious for a northern bias, especially after the hr 18 mark 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: HRRRRRR up first. Does it stick with it's NW solution or does it bend the knee to the global models? The storm is gonna disappear and hit no one 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Through midnight Friday, it didn't move away from the northern solution but does look a bit weaker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Through midnight Friday, it didn't move away from the northern solution but does look a bit weaker. thats only through like midnight thursday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Final frame able to compare to 18z. It's still snowing in spots after this. Definitely did not bend the knee to the southern solutions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Final frame able to compare to 18z. It's still snowing in spots after this. Definitely did not bend the knee to the southern solutions. That shows all rain for all of Illinois. Have a hard time believing that based on temps. But who knows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Using HRRR or RAP 48 hours out isn’t very smart tbh they aren’t good long term models 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 NAM isn’t shifting south yet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickH4NU Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 Yup, my drive on Friday night is not going to be a fun one Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11 Author Report Share Posted January 11 24 minutes ago, shakjen said: That shows all rain for all of Illinois. Have a hard time believing that based on temps. But who knows. HRRR has been trending the Friday morning initial WAA snow farther south in our areas. I think it'll eventually trend south/colder for the later parts of the storm, but the million dollar question of course is how much. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bumblin Bman09 Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 This Rain/Snow line is getting too far north. Id prefer to have all SNOW. I don't like the mix Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 11 Report Share Posted January 11 FV3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.