January 11-13 Major Winter Storm/Blizzard

[hawkstwelve]

21z vs 15z RAP. It still snows more after this frame...

[CentralNebWeather]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

This trend gif of the past four runs shows the NW trend on the GFS a bit better.

I'd expect one of the model camps to break towards the other on the 00z runs tonight. I'll be waiting with bated breath...

 

What I’ve noticed is it has moved the heavier snow farther west into Nebraska 

[hawkstwelve]

Just now, CentralNebWeather said:

What I’ve noticed is it has moved the heavier snow farther west into Nebraska 

Yeah the NW trend definitely benefits both of our areas. Crossing my fingers we can both score another round!

[CentralNebWeather]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Yeah the NW trend definitely benefits both of our areas. Crossing my fingers we can both score another round!

Sounds great. I then hope to pick up the waves off the mountains. Those probably stay well southwest of your area. 

[tbone8]

2 hours ago, indianajohn said:

WSW just issued for  NWI

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations in excess
  of 6 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Indiana and southwest Michigan.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Friday evening commute. Gusty winds could
  bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Conditions are expected to deteriorate
  through the day Friday. Wind gusts from the west of 35 to 45
  mph are possible Friday night and Saturday.

[Clinton]

EAX showing 2 -3 for me but my confidence is low on this one.

[james1976]

29 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

21z vs 15z RAP. It still snows more after this frame...

8" for MSP I wish!

[CentralNebWeather]

5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

EAX showing 2 -3 for me but my confidence is low on this one.

I don’t think Hastings has much of an idea either. The earlier models trended down. Now they seem to be trending back up. It’s not like this system is next week. It is supposed to start here after lunch tomorrow. Model mayhem around here imo. 

[james1976]

Local met just showed 3.5" for MSP from their in house model.

[gabel23]

It’s very bizarre how both oax and gid are downplaying this. A WWA for my area with 5” of blowing snow while most models are showing my area between 6-10”. We shall see. 

[hawkstwelve]

18z GEFS practically doubled the mean for Sioux Falls from the 12z run.

Obviously, as NWS FSD mentioned in their AFD, ensembles shouldn't be used a great deal at this point given the mesoscale features at play that they are unable to pick up. But could be a sign of where the 00z GFS may end up going tonight.

[CentralNebWeather]

6 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

It’s very bizarre how both oax and gid are downplaying this. A WWA for my area with 5” of blowing snow while most models are showing my area between 6-10”. We shall see. 

It is odd. Hastings with a very poor discussion with any details. Really never talked about various models. Now the ICON and GFS have increased amounts again. 18z Canadian looks very juiced on the meteocentre site. 

[Bumblin Bman09]

[Bryan1117]

10 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

It’s very bizarre how both oax and gid are downplaying this. A WWA for my area with 5” of blowing snow while most models are showing my area between 6-10”. We shall see. 

Let Omaha have this one, gabel23… LOL

[Clinton]

15 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I don’t think Hastings has much of an idea either. The earlier models trended down. Now they seem to be trending back up. It’s not like this system is next week. It is supposed to start here after lunch tomorrow. Model mayhem around here imo. 

The morning of the last storm they showed me getting a dusting - 2 and I got 6.  I don't like my odds with them showing accumulations for me lol.

[gabel23]

11 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Let Omaha have this one, gabel23… LOL

For sure!! Hope you guys get buried!!! Just weird with what models are showing further west. Don’t want to jinx you guys but you’re looking good!

[tbone8]

975.81mb, wow...

[bud2380]

27 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Local met just showed 3.5" for MSP from their in house model.

Is that the "blammo" guy that used to be on KWWL?

[james1976]

31 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Is that the "blammo" guy that used to be on KWWL?

Haha I can't remember that guy's name but I know it's not him.

[Money]

Mets would much better forecast lighter than saying 10-14 and getting 5 

[Hoosier]

This is relatively low confidence, but if I had a gun to my head I'd go with about 6" here.  Riding near the edge of the better snows though and this setup in particular is a very dynamic/volatile one with substantial lingering questions on precise surface low track/intensity as well as timing the erosion of any warm layers aloft, not to mention exact surface temps and the role they will play in accumulation.  Would not at all be surprised to come in with less, but some minor tweaks in a positive direction could result in higher amounts.  So basically, 6" is the best guess/middle ground approach at this point.

Although I expect a large percentage of the snow to be of the wetter variety, that will end up freezing as temps drop and could lead to an outsized blowing/drifting impact for whatever amount of drier snow does manage to fall.

[hawkstwelve]

18z Euro remained pretty much unchanged. Slightly higher totals in NE. 

Not really surprising there were no large changes considering 18z runs don't get new data input. 00z runs on the other hand will (hopefully) be very telling. 

[KTPmidMO]

14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z Euro remained pretty much unchanged. Slightly higher totals in NE. 

Not really surprising there were no large changes considering 18z runs don't get new data input. 00z runs on the other hand will (hopefully) be very telling. 

Do you have the Central US one for this through the whole storm? Thanks in advance

[hawkstwelve]

Just now, KTPmidMO said:

Do you have the Central US one for this through the whole storm? Thanks in advance

Kind of hard to capture the entire storm in one frame with Kuchera but here's the portion with the highest amounts around MO. 

[The Snowman]

I guess it’s go-time from a models perspective… if the 0z suite keeps improving Nebraska totals, imagine OAX will follow suit in the overnight update… high stakes! Here we go!

[jcwxguy]

Quote

000
FXUS63 KOAX 102331
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
531 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 .....

By midnight Thursday night, northerly winds of 20-30 mph build
in as CAA kicks into a higher gear. The thermometer Friday
morning should read within a couple of degrees on either side of
zero, but with the gusty winds, wind chills will slip as low as
-25. Near white-out conditions due to the blowing, drifting, and
 lofting of the notably fluffy snow are expected Friday morning
 (SLR may start off at 10:1 and climb to near 20:1 by Friday
 morning). Should the gusts of 35mph be progged to last three
 hours or more, the winter storm warning may need to be
 upgraded to a blizzard warning. Confidence isn`t quite there as
 of yet. Either way, travel will be difficult to impossible and
 cancellations are likely.

 

[hawkstwelve]

HRRRRRR up first. Does it stick with it's NW solution or does it bend the knee to the global models? 

[jcwxguy]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

HRRRRRR up first. Does it stick with it's NW solution or does it bend the knee to the global models? 

hrrr and rap are notorious for a northern bias, especially  after the hr 18 mark 

[Money]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

HRRRRRR up first. Does it stick with it's NW solution or does it bend the knee to the global models? 

The storm is gonna disappear and hit no one 

[hawkstwelve]

Through midnight Friday, it didn't move away from the northern solution but does look a bit weaker. 

[jcwxguy]

9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Through midnight Friday, it didn't move away from the northern solution but does look a bit weaker. 

thats only through like midnight thursday

[hawkstwelve]

Final frame able to compare to 18z. It's still snowing in spots after this. 

Definitely did not bend the knee to the southern solutions. 

[shakjen]

9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Final frame able to compare to 18z. It's still snowing in spots after this. 

Definitely did not bend the knee to the southern solutions. 

That shows all rain for all of Illinois. Have a hard time believing that based on temps. But who knows. 

[Money]

Using HRRR or RAP 48 hours out isn’t very smart tbh 

they aren’t good long term models

[bud2380]

NAM isn’t shifting south yet. 

[NickH4NU]

[Minny_Weather]

Yup, my drive on Friday night is not going to be a fun one

[Hoosier]

24 minutes ago, shakjen said:

That shows all rain for all of Illinois. Have a hard time believing that based on temps. But who knows. 

HRRR has been trending the Friday morning initial WAA snow farther south in our areas.  I think it'll eventually trend south/colder for the later parts of the storm, but the million dollar question of course is how much.

[Bumblin Bman09]

This Rain/Snow line is getting too far north.  Id prefer to have all SNOW.  I don't like the mix

 

[CentralNebWeather]

FV3