January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[van city]

Icon is slightly delayed but matches perfectly tha Canadian.

[Doinko]

06z is a bit warmer than 00z ICON but it definitely is still cold

[SpaceRace22]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Spire is cold.

 

[Slushy Inch]

Shift east but still cold.

[Slushy Inch]

Icons matches spire. This may be where we are headed.

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Icons matches spire. This may be where we are headed.

I'm gonna press X to doubt on that one. The ICON is an absolutely useless model, and the Spire is entirely unproven. I'd need to see some clear indication of that from the Euro before saying that's at all a possibility.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, SpaceRace22 said:

I'm gonna press X to doubt on that one. The ICON is an absolutely useless model, and the Spire is entirely unproven. I'd need to see some clear indication of that from the Euro before saying that's at all a possibility.

Also is pretty close to euro. 

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Also is pretty close to euro. 

Yeah I suppose you're right at the 500mb level. The Euro still manages to spill a ton of bitterly cold air out over the ocean though, so I guess my brain isn't really thinking of it the same. It guess it is though.

[Tanis Leach]

EPS 10-90% highs and lows for Sat/Sun for PDX.

 

5 day window crosses now so announcements start today if 12z holds. Computer still out so graphics will be intresting. 

 

Oh, and if it's sub 20, should I do a 5k time trial and get a time under 20:00? I did it last year and in 2017 (the last 2 sub 20s)

[GobBluth]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Death to ground insects!

[Doinko]

Graphcast looks good!

[iFred]

7 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I'm gonna press X to doubt on that one. The ICON is an absolutely useless model, and the Spire is entirely unproven. I'd need to see some clear indication of that from the Euro before saying that's at all a possibility.

The ICON has value, and quite a bit for us in the winter. Folks need to look at how it manages features that develop in the first few days as opposed to what it spits out at day six.

[Cloud]

Caving? Ridge is improved at day 2. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

GFS has kicked off.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Caving? Ridge is improved at day 2. 

By a hair

[snow_wizard]

Seeing some signs this GFS run might be better.

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, iFred said:

The ICON has value, and quite a bit for us in the winter. Folks need to look at how it manages features that develop in the first few days as opposed to what it spits out at day six.

Doesn’t it have a warm bias?

[Tanis Leach]

For local PDX TV stations:

KOIN is going with 33 on Saturday with snow showers. 

KGW is going mixed and 36

KPTV is going snow showers and 36

KATU is going 38 and mixed. 

NWS is going 32 and mixed? That question mark is intentional as I doubt it would be mixed if it's 32. It's also rare they're the most aggressive. 

Rod is going a low confidence 32 on Saturday and implied he may raise it, since he flat out admitted to discounting the EPS because it is too cold in his latest video. He is heavily leaning on the GFS. 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Tanis Leach said:

For local PDX TV stations:

KOIN is going with 33 on Saturday with snow showers. 

KGW is going mixed and 36

KPTV is going snow showers and 36

KATU is going 38 and mixed. 

NWS is going 32 and mixed? That question mark is intentional as I doubt it would be mixed if it's 32. It's also rare they're the most aggressive. 

Rod is going a low confidence 32 on Saturday and implied he may raise it, since he flat out admitted to discounting the EPS because it is too cold in his latest video. He is heavily leaning on the GFS. 

Who is Rod?

[Tanis Leach]

Forgot something. Rod also said the EPS has a cold bias in our area this past year. 

 

Press X to doubt when comparing to GFS. 

[Cloud]

Still not as good as the Euro but a smidge better. 

[Meatyorologist]

Poor buddy. So lost.

[Tanis Leach]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Who is Rod?

Rod Hill since he runs his own weather site in addition to KGW mornings. 

 

[RayRay]

How is the newest gfs run 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Poor buddy. So lost.

Even at 3 days very different 

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, RayRay said:

How is the newest gfs run 

Bad

[Cloud]

Little buddy is still on its own.

[SnowySeeker50]

GFS continues to be out for lunch

[Slushy Inch]

Actually slightly farther east. Goodnight yall

[Cold Snap]

GFS is such a laughing stock.

[Cloud]

Waste of time watching this model.

[RayRay]

4 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Bad

Time to sleep

[SpaceRace22]

That is actually wild that it somehow managed to get worse. If every single other model weren't firmly in our camp, I might be a little more upset by this run, lol

[Requiem]

It's also the 06z-- I'd expect more drastic changes next run 

[Cloud]

This model is a trainwreck and I’ll very surprised if it is right. 

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

That is actually wild that it somehow managed to get worse. If every single other model weren't firmly in our camp, I might be a little more upset by this run, lol

We even have the jma 

[SpaceRace22]

6 minutes ago, Requiem said:

It's also the 06z-- I'd expect more drastic changes next run 

Also a good point. The 12z usually has the best initialization data for the West Coast, thanks to the timing of the westbound bank of flights from Asia to the US and the ACARS data they provide. There's almost no planes in the air over the north Pacific prior to the 06z, so it has even less data than it otherwise would as one of the druncle off-hour initializations.

I have to imagine once the 12z gets some reality injected into it with more initialization data, it will start the process of coming back to Earth. Given how close we are getting to this, it has to see a pretty dramatic flip soon.

[Phil]

Oh goofus.  

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

This model is a trainwreck and I’ll very surprised if it is right. 

Can’t wait to see Cliffs emergency post before temps plummet. Liking clinging to sinking ship. We need to improve gfs or just take it out Ol Yeller style

[SpaceRace22]

8 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Can’t wait to see Cliffs emergency post before temps plummet. Liking clinging to sinking ship. We need to improve gfs or just take it out Ol Yeller style

The GFS should just be blocked out inside of day 7. Allow its results to be viewed from day 7 to 16, but then turn it off inside of there.