January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Meatyorologist]

46 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

They talked to Cliff 

When I was touring the NWS during February 2019 they were relentlessly shit talking his anti-AGW agenda lol

[Cloud]

14 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Missing Rob too 

Rob is not gonna be around 4-5 days leading up to an event. He’s usually with his FB group and will check in occasionally. 

[iFred]

6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

so a 'garden variety' GFS solution is most likely?

Sliding east with snow in Spokane and rain in Seattle? Then yes. The GFS turn around is now partially blind until tomorrow afternoon.

I remember reading about how Hurricane Hunter obs could be useful for 36 hours, so I figure that data collection had a similar influence on initialization.

Tomorrow night might be “historic” for the forum, one way or another.

[RaleighHillsRunner]

35 minutes ago, Ziess said:

Man I hope these really cold temps happen, it would decimate the box elder/stink bug populations! 

Ha! Honestly that might be the biggest win for me out of all of this - we’re surrounded by the maples they love and it’s been a rough few years  

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

When I was touring the NWS during February 2019 they were relentlessly talking his anti-AGW agenda lol

AGW?

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Rob is not gonna be around 4-5 days leading up to an event. He’s usually with his FB group and will check in occasionally. 

What a butthead. FB is poop 

[DareDuck]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

When things get real juicy in the model world he prioritizes his time and mostly stays on his FB weather group. 

He’s not been feeling well the last couple days. I’m sure he’ll be back when he feels better. 

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

AGW?

 

[Slushy Inch]

Trough before the big one is a bit west this run

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Hour 48, 3 run trend

[MossMan]

The calm before the storm. Currently 34 degrees. 

[GHweatherChris]

6 minutes ago, iFred said:

Sliding east with snow in Spokane and rain in Seattle? Then yes. The GFS turn around is now partially blind until tomorrow afternoon.

I remember reading about how Hurricane Hunter obs could be useful for 36 hours, so I figure that data collection had a similar influence on initialization.

Tomorrow night might be “historic” for the forum, one way or another.

This is borderline hate speech Fred.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Hour 48, 3 run trend

Block looks better?

[Slushy Inch]

This run is certainly getting cold. Improvements in all the right spots 

[Meatyorologist]

Euro looks like it's making another positive synoptic move. But will I be right...?

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

 

Ahh it’s seems he mostly focuses on dispelling the idea that every extreme weather event is climate change, which I agree with him. But is also is too optimistic 

[Meatyorologist]

-PNA and -NAO blocks are both improved by hour 60.

[Slushy Inch]

The not all that weak low diving into NW Oregon is somehow back. This has been quite the model riding.

[jakerepp]

15 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Imagine a Husky doing that tomorrow. Scholarship revoked!

[Meatyorologist]

11 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

AGW?

global warmin' (specifically human-caused, or 'anthropogenic')

[OysterPrintout]

Be very nice if we can swing that Tuesday overnight low just exactly right and get some snow heading into this 

[Slushy Inch]

Got to love this trend!

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Day 3, 3 run trend 

[lowlandsnow]

Nice improvement

[Weiner Warrior]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

The not all that weak low diving into NW Oregon is somehow back. This has been quite the model riding.

The gfs has that as well.

Edited January 7 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[Slushy Inch]

850s change.

[Cloud]

12z euro says the 00z run wasn’t cold enough.. so let’s make it colder?

[RCola]

24 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

These maps are the worst

For your area perhaps, but I must say, even though I'm not a fan of Cliff, his model did decently around the Seattle area last year modeling snow. While GFS and even Euro showed a few inches in downtown on several occasions, WRF consistently showed snow only in higher elevations outside of downtown.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

ITS COMING!

[Front Ranger]

Euro looks great at day 4.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Nice improvement

LETS GOO!!!

[Slushy Inch]

This is early!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Interesting,  the new euro has that low Tuesday and now the gfs has it. It was gone for several runs on gfs but last time it was there was 12z Fri and it was a cold run

 

[Slushy Inch]

Looks like a strong Arctic front up north. Actually looks like PSCZ. Let’s drop that south.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, RCola said:

For your area perhaps, but I must say, even though I'm not a fan of Cliff, his model did decently around the Seattle area last year modeling snow. While GFS and even Euro showed a few inches in downtown on several occasions, WRF consistently showed snow only in higher elevations outside of downtown.

Mostly they are ugly. Unicorn vomit.

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

850s change.

1°C warmer in Corvallis and Eugene

It’s over

[iFred]

1 minute ago, RCola said:

For your area perhaps, but I must say, even though I'm not a fan of Cliff, his model did decently around the Seattle area last year modeling snow. While GFS and even Euro showed a few inches in downtown on several occasions, WRF consistently showed snow only in higher elevations outside of downtown.

Its terrain resolution and terrain type, not the model.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Day 4, 3 run trend!

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

1°C warmer in Corvallis and Eugene

It’s over

Winter cancelled