January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Phil]

Just now, AbbyJr said:

Do you think that solution is pretty much locked in now or is there still time a miracle?

There’s always time for a miracle. That’s why they’re called miracles.

But I have yet to see one in my 20+ years of watching model guidance. I’ve seen plenty of anti-miracles, though.  

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Model riding punishes my hubris.

We’re all gluttons for punishment…

Still think Tuesday is the action day. Either all in or all out. 

[DC1]

Just now, AbbyJr said:

Do you think that solution is pretty much locked in now or is there still time a miracle?

The models can definitely still shift back toward a colder solution. Maybe not as cold but they definitely can

 

[Requiem]

5 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Are you going to UO now???

Yep! 

[Mid Valley Duck]

Graphcast ran and it’s still cold and looks like a big snowstorm Seattle south to Portland. It’s not quite as cold as prior runs though, especially for NW Oregon 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

There’s always time for a miracle. That’s why they’re called miracles.

But I have yet to see one in my 20+ years of watching model guidance. I’ve seen plenty of anti-miracles, though.  

Really? Even not an event where a little snow is forecasted and a lot falls? Happens all the time here. Or are you talking larger scale flips?

[Slushy Inch]

Wtf is wunderground on?

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

We’re all gluttons for punishment…

Still think Tuesday is the action day. Either all in or all out. 

What are your thoughts on the January 1998 comparisons? Do you think that this is the type setup historically that we would see a big valley/metro ice storm?

[Slushy Inch]

Reload lol!

[Phishy Wx]

I mean I guess it could come back, technically the features presented are still just modeled at this point right?  except maybe the -nao?

I'm not paying attention to that granularity level because I don't pay for full model access so not sure.

[RayRay]

Redmond Wa went back down to 9 degrees Fahrenheit as low temp…

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Wtf is wunderground on?

shrooms

[Rubus Leucodermis]

HRRR looks good.

 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Really? Even not an event where a little snow is forecasted and a lot falls? Happens all the time here. Or are you talking larger scale flips?

I’m talking about the airmass itself, not mesoscale stuff. This is somewhat anecdotal, but out here guidance is often too aggressive both in advecting arctic air into, and out of, the region. It’s generally more slow and stubborn on both ends.

[Phishy Wx]

see the all or nothing crowd may be right? huh

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

What are your thoughts on the January 1998 comparisons? Do you think that this is the type setup historically that we would see a big valley/metro ice storm?

At face value, sure. If we froze the clock, all the pieces would be in place with tons of low level CAA and what appears to be a decent amount of Pacific interaction. Good or bad though, it’s still 4-5 days out. And good or bad, next weekend probably won’t play out as it’s being modeled. Things are clearly still in flux.

[Front Ranger]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

We’re all gluttons for punishment…

Still think Tuesday is the action day. Either all in or all out. 

Is there ever a time when things aren't pretty settled by 48 hours out? Can't think of an Arctic blast that was/wasn't modeled within 2 days and then suddenly things flipped.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Is there ever a time when things aren't pretty settled by 48 hours out? Can't think of an Arctic blast that was/wasn't modeled within 2 days and then suddenly things flipped.

Which is why I asked the same question earlier. Don’t ever recall a flip within 2 days. I think there’s still a bit of time left but the window is fast closing. We’ll see how the models goes tomorrow but should be settled by Tuesday imo. 

[Cold Snap]

15 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Wtf is wunderground on?

Shows this for me lol.

[RayRay]

Cannot believe we are already on 100 pages in a few days

[Tanis Leach]

Just now, RayRay said:

Cannot believe we are already on 100 pages in a few days

And this is part 2. Part one had like 277

[luvssnow_spokane]

55 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm shocked by the negativity on here.

Always the one to be so shocked and the last to see the writing on wall.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Shows this for me lol.

Probably because they haven’t yet incorporated the latest model guidance and moderated temperatures accordingly.

[RCola]

In a traditional three act play, the end of the second act is typically the lowest point of the play. Maybe we need a part three three thread to manifest better runs in the next few days. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

Always the one to be so shocked and the last to see the writing on wall.

Deep down inside he knew it was tenuous. Yesterday I offered to wager him on whether or not it would moderate and he declined.

[DC1]

I have definitely seen models change wildly within a couple days for sure. I’ve also seen models over the years showing an arctic blast and snow storms all the way to the event and nothing ever happened. So it is definitely possible to change around a little more. 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Deep down inside he knew it was tenuous. Yesterday I offered to wager him on whether or not it would moderate and he declined.

I think a model compromise was inevitable because of how far apart they were.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

I think a model compromise was inevitable because of how far apart they were.

And how crazy cold the Euro was then. Climo almost always wins.

[SeanNyberg]

To be clear. This has been a hugely positive shift for Seattle and surrounding areas.

sure a single digit freeze would be fun for a day. But I’ll take 30 and snowy any day.

i know I know. Euro doesn’t show the snow!! It’s there. I promise. Been doing this long enough. Gfs was on to it the entire time.

So Washingtonians. Dont let your Oregon brethren get you down. This has multi day epic snow storm written all over it.

Champagne should be popping.

oh. And that is why weather underground shows that snow for Bothell, because it’s coming.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And how crazy cold the Euro was then. Climo almost always wins.

You call this climo?

[Slushy Inch]

Still a solid chance western WA gets 20 or less. That’s a decent Arctic outbreak. Can’t be too upset that historic cold is off the table.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

You call this climo?

Significantly closer to it than it used to be!

[DC1]

4 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

To be clear. This has been a hugely positive shift for Seattle and surrounding areas.

sure a single digit freeze would be fun for a day. But I’ll take 30 and snowy any day.

i know I know. Euro doesn’t show the snow!! It’s there. I promise. Been doing this long enough. Gfs was on to it the entire time.

So Washingtonians. Dont let your Oregon brethren get you down. This has multi day epic snow storm written all over it.

Champagne should be popping.

oh. And that is why weather underground shows that snow for Bothell, because it’s coming.

100% I think this is gonna turn out awesome! 

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

To be clear. This has been a hugely positive shift for Seattle and surrounding areas.

sure a single digit freeze would be fun for a day. But I’ll take 30 and snowy any day.

i know I know. Euro doesn’t show the snow!! It’s there. I promise. Been doing this long enough. Gfs was on to it the entire time.

So Washingtonians. Dont let your Oregon brethren get you down. This has multi day epic snow storm written all over it.

Champagne should be popping.

oh. And that is why weather underground shows that snow for Bothell, because it’s coming.

That forecast is too optimistic

[SnowWillarrive]

5 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

To be clear. This has been a hugely positive shift for Seattle and surrounding areas.

sure a single digit freeze would be fun for a day. But I’ll take 30 and snowy any day.

i know I know. Euro doesn’t show the snow!! It’s there. I promise. Been doing this long enough. Gfs was on to it the entire time.

So Washingtonians. Dont let your Oregon brethren get you down. This has multi day epic snow storm written all over it.

Champagne should be popping.

oh. And that is why weather underground shows that snow for Bothell, because it’s coming.

Hope this doesn’t turn into a Canadian only event. Just being real. 

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

That forecast is too optimistic

Probably, but Washington posters have no reason to be gloomy right now considering every model shows either significant cold or snow for you guys 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Requiem said:

Probably, but Washington posters have no reason to be gloomy right now considering every model shows either significant cold or snow for you guys 

Agreed 

[Gradient Keeper]

Night Shift 6z GFS in 1 hour 30 minutes. Who knows what it's going to show.

[TT-SEA]

The system on Tuesday night is interesting.   It comes in south of Seattle which usually means east wind up here.  But the ECMWF shows south wind up here and to the south of the system.   Can't remember ever seeing that before.  

[Slushy Inch]

Could characterize this ensemble as showing a lot of uncertainty. Could go either way. Definitely lost a number of cold members.