January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

31 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

It’s just a frigid anomalous Arctic airmass dropping down. Glad we’re going to get a part of it rather than it all sliding east of the Rockies.

 

It’s going to slide east as the GFS shows

[TT-SEA]

Worth noting... the ECMWF and EPS are showing significantly less precip overall over the weekend.    The GFS just seems unreasonable wet for such a weak system.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

In most cases where PDX outperforms BLI, you see a pretty distinct cutoff around Olympia.

January 1960 for example gave a decent dump to OLM but then had a sharp cutoff just to the north. Same with the December 1919 storm.

So the southern trackers for NW OR/SW WA usually extend out about 100 miles either north or south, but every setup is a little bit different.

Olympia cut off like this?  

Side note... this is actually a southward shift for the control run from its 00Z and 06Z runs.

 

[snow_wizard]

The EPS is colder overall after the snow event.  Loving the trends on this.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

@snow_wizard you gotta like that for tonight at least. 

I would be shocked if it happens, but it is pretty cold.  40 with a strong south wind is impressive.

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Worth noting... the ECMWF and EPS are showing significantly less precip overall over the weekend.    The GFS just seems unreasonable wet for such a weak system.

I don't think it's too unreasonable-- the system is packing quite a bit of PWAT and drags additional moisture in with it. That being said I do think the GFS is overdoing precip, but these situations often end up dynamic as far as how much actually ends up falling 

[BLI snowman]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z control run keeps it south... 

 

 

Kalama FTW.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Olympia cut off like this?  

Side note... this is actually a southward shift for the control run from its 00Z and 06Z runs.

 

But further north than the 12z.  I like our chances here.  That big improvement on the Spire today was nice to see.

[MossMan]

I like this little guy here and he is going to track just like that! 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

I don't think it's too unreasonable-- the system is packing quite a bit of PWAT and drags additional moisture in with it. That being said I do think the GFS is overdoing precip, but these situations often end up dynamic as far as how much actually ends up falling 

The thing does look impressively juicy considering the circumstances.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

New Rod Hill update.

 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I like this little guy here and he is going to track just like that! 

Too far north.  It would ruin it for almost everyone.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I don't think it's too unreasonable-- the system is packing quite a bit of PWAT and drags additional moisture in with it. That being said I do think the GFS is overdoing precip, but these situations often end up dynamic as far as how much actually ends up falling 

frontogenesis...or something. No wait, isentropic lift. er, isothermal coupling???

[snow_wizard]

Not unreasonable to think the GFS will go a little deeper and the ECMWF a little shallower on tonight's runs.

Whatever happens I would want too far south over too far north any day.

[TT-SEA]

Did anyone mention the 18Z ICON?   

 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

New Rod Hill update.

 

That cold air graphic is pretty misleading.

[BLI snowman]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Olympia cut off like this?  

Side note... this is actually a southward shift for the control run from its 00Z and 06Z runs.

 

Lil bit!

Good news is that northward extent in a suppression pattern like this is often overmodeled (meaning too suppressed), even in the short range. Let alone at 108 hours. And the models can barely agree on what day of the week it is right now....

Edited January 10 by BLI snowman

[fubario]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Did anyone mention the 18Z ICON?   

 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Did anyone mention the 18Z ICON?   

 

Earlier.  Bottom line...we still don't know.

[MikeInEverett]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Worth noting... the ECMWF and EPS are showing significantly less precip overall over the weekend.    The GFS just seems unreasonable wet for such a weak system.

I feel like we’ve seen this exact scenario with many events of the past. Usually the ECMWF is right with the dryer solution unfortunately.

[TT-SEA]

Almost all of the EPS members are south on Saturday now. 

 

[RentonHill]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I like this little guy here and he is going to track just like that! 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Lil bit!

Good news is that northward extent in a suppressed pattern like this is often undermodeled, even in the short range. Let alone at 108 hours. And the model can barely agree on what day of the week it is right now....

I'll never forget in 2012 how the moisture just kept creeping north more and more on each run pretty much while it was happening.

[BLI snowman]

Some hail showers roaming about tonight already here. Unexpected. Dynamic system.

[FroYoBro]

Power is out in my neighborhood for the rest of the night. A branch fell on top of the line down the street, caught on fire and then I heard the transformer blew. Going to be a cold, dark and incredibly snowy night here! 

[KingstonWX]

My phone's weather app just completely removed all the snow, aside from 0.10" on Friday. 

It's so over. 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Almost all of the EPS members are south on Saturday now. 

 

The point is it will probably trend north a bit more tonight like the 18z vs 12z.  It's like you have given up hope already.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, KingstonWX said:

My phone's weather app just completely removed all the snow, aside from 0.10" on Friday. 

It's so over. 

Oh brother.

[KingstonWX]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Oh brother.

I hope I didn't need to add the /s on this forum. 

We're so back.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

I can't believe how he picked the one that would screw almost all of us.

[Ken in Wood Village]

10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I like this little guy here and he is going to track just like that! 

Sharpie gate  again!!!!

[Olive1010]

Meteogram for KPDX snow to liquid ratio 10:1. I love these meteograms

[snow_wizard]

I'm sticking with my call for precip making it to Everett during the snow event.

[CloudJunkie]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Almost all of the EPS members are south on Saturday now. 

 

There's still a huge amount of variability in these members.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Did anyone mention the 18Z ICON?   

 

I did

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Too far north.  It would ruin it for almost everyone.

Except for the quality posters.

[bainbridgekid]

10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Lil bit!

Good news is that northward extent in a suppression pattern like this is often overmodeled (meaning too suppressed), even in the short range. Let alone at 108 hours. And the model can barely agree on what day of the week it is right now....

Seems like this has happens nearly every time in these battleground setups (Nov 2010, Jan 2011, Jan 2012, early Feb 2014, late Feb 2014, Jan 2020, Feb 2021, etc)

 

Models almost always overestimate how quickly the arctic air moves South and therefore overestimate how much it suppresses the incoming low. This also often allows the storm to deepen stronger than modeled and come in further North. 
 

Not saying the GFS solution will be correct, but the fact it’s so strong/North gives me pause to believe the far South solutions. Big runs ahead.

[Requiem]

What seems apparent at the moment is we will have a moisture-laden system collide with frigid air. This is our setup, guys. We wait weeks and months every winter for fleeting chances like this, and as of now it seems like somewhere between Eugene and Bellingham will have a bonafide snowstorm. I think this is enough to be happy about for the current moment 

[ajreich]

Very chunky rain already at 600’ in the west hills 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Did anyone mention the 18Z ICON?   

 

I saw it. Very cold!