January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[TacomaWx]

Definitely looking like the best of the event is going to be south of the Puget sound region…but I still think atleast south of Seattle will probably get some snow on the fringe of the northern boundary with precip extending a bit further than expected into western Washington. I like the sound of some bitter cold and a bit of snow here. 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I'll never forget this epic snowstorm on January 10th, 2017. I don't remember what time I went to bed that night because I loved watching it snow. The East winds were blowing a bat out of hell through the Gorge and it was snowing for hours. I wish we could have another storm like this one 🌨

Just scrolling through on my phone and my initial thought was you were buried last night!   Then I read your caption.    Great pics though.

[TT-SEA]

06Z ECMWF was another notch south from the 00Z run.    Still there will be some lucky areas south of Portland that will be in the perfect position between the cold air and the moisture.   And Andrew should get a bunch of snow over the weekend.  

[LowerGarfield]

Everything is white outside and really coming down. I need to go back to sleep but it's beautiful. The snow plow hasn't come by yet and SR 12 is snow covered here.

[TT-SEA]

Slowed down loop for Thursday showing the projected timing of the arctic front per the 06Z ECMWF.   Looks like the front comes through the Seattle area and King County starting around 1 p.m. and temps are down to freezing a little after sunset.     Temps shown at 12 p.m., 2 p.m., and 4 p.m.  Unfortunately moisture appears to be ahead of the cold air.   Too much back door action with this arctic front.   

[TT-SEA]

@Chewbacca Defensethe ECMWF shows some c-zone type snow in Bellingham already before dawn tomorrow.   Might be more dicey for your son that I thought.   Bellingham is going to score early (and probably best) with this front.   But its not actually the SW moving arctic front on Thursday morning up there... it a localized area of convergence.   Precip is moving to the NE during this little event.  

[snow maniac]

Not looking good for puget sound

[TacomaWx]

Just got into work. Snow accumulating at about 1000’ on tiger mountain. Winter wonderland up there. Not sticking here at 850’ but snowing at least. 

[TacomaWx]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Slowed down loop for Thursday showing the projected timing of the arctic front per the 06Z ECMWF.   Looks like the front comes through the Seattle area and King County starting around 1 p.m. and temps are down to freezing a little after sunset.     Temps shown at 12 p.m., 2 p.m., and 4 p.m.  Unfortunately moisture appears to be ahead of the cold air.   Too much back door action with this arctic front.   

The only thing I can see potentially happening is the Arctic air being delayed which seems to happen every time. If that’s the case the Arctic front could be a bit better than what’s shown. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Just got into work. Snow accumulating at about 1000’ on tiger mountain. Winter wonderland up there. Not sticking here at 850’ but snowing at least. 

Just some flakes in the air here and windy on this side of the ridge... not sticking and 34 degrees.

The highest point along Hwy 18 there is around 1,300 feet but must be accumulating a little lower than that as well.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the GFS caved some more. 

[TacomaWx]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just some flakes in the air here and windy on this side of the ridge... not sticking and 34 degrees.

The highest point along Hwy 18 there is around 1,300 feet but must be accumulating a little lower than that as well.  

Yeah the accumulation line is just a little up the hill lol. I was hoping for some sticking snow at work but just a little too low here. Fun to see though! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like maybe another inch of snow this morning. Temp is down to 30 now in the cold air behind that little low so the quality of snow falling right now is much higher than the slop we got last night. 

[LowerGarfield]

Snow plow just came by based on the rumble. Going back to sleep or trying to now that it's six and there seems to be no change in school operation.

[Snownerd3000]

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

06z GRAF shows about 4 inches of snow for PDX through Friday 11pm with the Friday system. Temps crash to 20 with strong east winds.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

06z GRAF shows about 4 inches of snow for PDX through Friday 11pm with the Friday system. Temps crash to 20 with strong east winds.

06z EURO is pretty similar with the temperature drop for PDX. It’s also showing some light snow during that time frame.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Frontal Snowsquall said:

06z EURO is pretty similar with the temperature drop for PDX. It’s also showing some light snow during that time frame.

Seems like there might be some light precip along that arctic frontal boundary. Assuming guidance is slightly overdone for PDX Saturday they could probably pull off a high in the 23-25 range. 

I think I may have to fully winterize tomorrow. 

[LowerGarfield]

I give up. Cant sleep. Can't wait to see what we got. Didn't set out my board last night due to the strong winds but I have a few flat surfaces to measure.

[Fircrest]

I have been following the forum for quite a while and usually only contribute during snow events. I am currently home from work recovering from hernia surgery so having something to track has been entertaining. It's been quite a ride following these models runs, though currently disappointing since I'm located just west of Tacoma in Fircrest.  We'll see what happens, still room for surprises I suppose. Thanks to everyone for analysis, discussion and even the drama, haha. Now let's have a dynamic arctic front or shift things north and get some snow!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting how a lot of these operational runs throw us some more cold/snow chances down the road, but the ensembles are pretty terrible once we get into next week. Just have to take it one day at a time, but if we can pull off an impressive cold snap regardless as we crash back to a Nina next year, have to consider that a huge win. 

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

I have been following the forum for quite a while and usually only contribute during snow events. I am currently home from work recovering from hernia surgery so having something to track has been entertaining. It's been quite a ride following these models runs, though currently disappointing since I'm located just west of Tacoma in Fircrest.  We'll see what happens, still room for surprises I suppose. Thanks to everyone for analysis, discussion and even the drama, haha. Now let's have a dynamic arctic front or shift things north and get some snow!

Our best hope is the Arctic front moving through a bit slower than what’s modeled currently. That typically happens so it wouldn’t be surprising. It’s always a watch the radar type of situation models never get it right.

The other hope is that the swath of precipitation shown covers a larger area than shown…particularly on the north edge. Thats also a decent possibility. Either way this all will probably go down differently than what’s shown and surprises will happen. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Our best hope is the Arctic front moving through a bit slower than what’s modeled currently. That typically happens so it wouldn’t be surprising. It’s always a watch the radar type of situation models never get it right.

The other hope is that the swath of precipitation shown covers a larger area than shown…particularly on the north edge. Thats also a decent possibility. Either way this all will probably go down differently than what’s shown and surprises will happen. 

12Z NAM is indeed a little slower than its 00Z run.   That just brings it in line with ECMWF though.

[Mid Valley Duck]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z NAM is indeed a little slower than its 00Z run.   That just brings it in line with ECMWF. 

Also looks further south and with less precip. The 6z NAM was epic from Salem to PDX (6-12”) with more on the way. We’ll see about this run.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z NAM is indeed a little slower than its 00Z run.   That just brings it in line with ECMWF. 

The NAM is usually too aggressive anyways right? Either way I don’t really remember an event where there wasn’t a lot of worrying because the Arctic air slowly pushes southward. Seems like it always takes longer than expected to push through the puget sound. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

12z NAM is a lot weaker and further south with the surface low out ahead of the parent low. The way things are trending down the home stretch TWL might be the big winner

[Snownerd3000]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interesting how a lot of these operational runs throw us some more cold/snow chances down the road, but the ensembles are pretty terrible once we get into next week. Just have to take it one day at a time, but if we can pull off an impressive cold snap regardless as we crash back to a Nina next year, have to consider that a huge win. 

Hoping so. What's the point of cold if it's bone dry? Was hoping we'd see a little more over water trajectory for the front. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems like there might be some light precip along that arctic frontal boundary. Assuming guidance is slightly overdone for PDX Saturday they could probably pull off a high in the 23-25 range. 

I think I may have to fully winterize tomorrow. 

I’m thinking the models might be underestimating moisture with the Arctic boundary. Hoping it can over perform.

[Mid Valley Duck]

NAM looks a lot like last nights euro.

[jakerepp]

Almost couldn't believe my eyes! Beautiful morning.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

06z GFS and EURO at hour 72. I usually like to take a “blend” of these two starting at day 3 and less when I make my forecast. 
 

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

NAM looks a lot like last nights euro.

I have a feeling it's being a bit too anemic with precip-- Euro actually has quite a bit, it just happens to fall as ZR

[TacomaWx]

3F at lake Williams BC this morning. 0F at prince George BC. Some chilly air up north that’ll be here in about 36-48 hours! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

Hoping so. What's the point of cold if it's bone dry? Was hoping we'd see a little more over water trajectory for the front. 

I'd rather get cold than no cold, but I get I'm in the minority with that.

 

[ajreich]

22 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

I have been following the forum for quite a while and usually only contribute during snow events. I am currently home from work recovering from hernia surgery so having something to track has been entertaining. It's been quite a ride following these models runs, though currently disappointing since I'm located just west of Tacoma in Fircrest.  We'll see what happens, still room for surprises I suppose. Thanks to everyone for analysis, discussion and even the drama, haha. Now let's have a dynamic arctic front or shift things north and get some snow!

Hope you have a speedy recovery and get feet of snow

[Mid Valley Duck]

Just now, Requiem said:

I have a feeling it's being a bit too anemic with precip-- Euro actually has quite a bit, it just happens to fall as ZR

The 6z was extremely juicy so it’s probably the NAM just being the NAM. Honestly think you, me and TWL could end up the big winners. Which a day or two ago I would have thought it was impossible

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

3F at lake Williams BC this morning. 0F at prince George BC. Some chilly air up north that’ll be here in about 36-48 hours! 

I mentioned late last week it was 30 in Prince George. New things would turn around!

[TacomaWx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'd rather get cold than no cold, but I get I'm in the minority with that.

 

Yeah it’s better than December for sure even if we see little or no snow up here. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

06z GFS and EURO at hour 72. I usually like to take a “blend” of these two starting at day 3 and less when I make my forecast. 
 

I don't think a blend works this time... the ECMWF has been consistent while the GFS is still going through its caving process.

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

The 6z was extremely juicy so it’s probably the NAM just being the NAM. Honestly think you, me and TWL could end up the big winners. Which a day or two ago I would have thought it was impossible

Not sure if Eugene will be able to avoid a nasty ice storm instead, but your neck of the woods is absolutely in a good spot right now (and you guys deserve it more than anyone in PNW lowlands atp)