January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Great to see the cold air getting down the valley so quick even on an outlier north model like the GRAF.

Mark has said the GRAF is pretty reliable in the this timeframe. I hope it’s right!

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

You mean, after you guys get all the snow in round 1? Dont want to share the goods now??

It would be a cool setup that would open the door for more cold air down the road. It was just an observation. Unfortunately it’s the day 6 icon so who knows.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Timmy said:

Do we have any analogs for Tim going against the euro? Should be a fun weekend

 

I mean, if you live north of Portland and all you care about is snow, you have to hang on to the GFS. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Timmy said:

First look at the gefs looks a little further south and more light on precip at hour 78

Trending warmer.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

 

06Z EPS looked exactly like that as well.  

[bainbridgekid]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I also think the GFS was the first model to pick up on the low yesterday that brought all the wind.   Definitely cannot discount the GFS now just due to its stubbornness.  

It definitely was. And people thought it was crazy for blowing up that "972mb low seemingly out of nowhere" but it ended up happening pretty much just like the GFS predicted.

[ShawniganLake]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Arctic front snow per 12Z GEM.  

Also a nice looking arctic front across Vancouver Island. A few inches of snow with falling temperatures during the afternoon.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice morning. 

If this trends south more, or the GFS is right and we just get ice, this could be the best the snow looks during this "event."

[Timmy]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Trending warmer.

The gfs did yes. Gefs not sure yet!

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I mean, if you live north of Portland and all you care about is snow, you have to hang on to the GFS. 

I really just don’t see all the models jumping on with the gfs, it’s on its own. Even the other models are shifting south at the same time. The gfs has shifted south a bit over time. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Trending warmer.

I'm assuming you are just being silly...

[RentonHill]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

I really just don’t see all the models jumping on with the gfs, it’s on its own. Even the other models are shifting south at the same time. The gfs has shifted south a bit over time. 

the navy would like a word

[Timmy]

Some kind of compromise of the euro gem and gfs would be ideal for pdx

[Blizzard777]

2 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Verrado is nice too, but it's a much different feel than Estrella. You'd kinda have to spend a lot of time in both to figure out what you prefer. 

But yes, next time you are down, let me know and I can get you the exclusive tour

That’s awesome and I will take advantage of that offer!  
Last time down I went on a couple dates with a gal and she got me into the Verrado clubhouse!  Pretty sweet place and lots of pools!  
Ok…Back to weather

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The best b et for Seattle now is watching the arctic trough for more digging and bringing in more precip with the arctic air. Very possible,

[TT-SEA]

GEFS trend for Saturday.  

[Doinko]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

GEFS trend for Saturday.  

Highest mean for PDX yet

[GHweatherChris]

About a 50/50 rain snow mix here currently.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM really brings some strong systems in about a week out. Would be nice to delay that a bit and enjoy some inversion. 

[Tyler Mode]

Snow stopped right at Chehalis last night it looks like, and nothing south of the river except at elevation.

That's about 30 miles or more north of where even the Euro showed it on yesterday's run.

[Doinko]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GEM really brings some strong systems in about a week out. Would be nice to delay that a bit and enjoy some inversion. 

I remember the models kept extending the inversion in Jan 2017 after the storm here I think

[FrozenBites]

With the cold air coming, there will be surprises. Nobody should give up on hope for snow. Models are a prediction, not the answer. 

Lots of people will be satisfied. We have the pacific ocean to our west. Most complicated thing to predict accurately. Cold vs Ocean, let's watch this unfold!

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Doinko said:

I remember the models kept extending the inversion in Jan 2017 after the storm here I think

That was a nice inversion, it was sunny all the way down the valley too. Even though they didn't have snow with the big event on the 10/11th most of the valley flirted with sub freezing highs. 

[Blizzard777]

Lots of fun advisories and warning 

Arctic air, your move 

[ShawniganLake]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I mean, if you live north of Portland and all you care about is snow, you have to hang on to the GFS. 

I’m hanging on to the EPS in the hopes that YVR sees -19C 850s.  Not normally a stats guy really but would be cool to set a near benchmark for this century. 

[Phishy Wx]

7 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Some kind of compromise of the euro gem and gfs would be ideal for pdx

they should have a Zoom call, work it out

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GEM really brings some strong systems in about a week out. Would be nice to delay that a bit and enjoy some inversion. 

send these bad boys in a little further south and we got ourselves a stew goin'

 

[Phishy Wx]

purty chilly

 

 

[Weiner Warrior]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GEFS trend for Saturday.  

Yep, not expecting anything more than an inch or so hopefully in Seattle.

[TT-SEA]

All GEFS members for Saturday.

Interestingly some shifted way north from 00Z run.   Like #19 which looked like the GEM on the 00Z run and now looks like the GFS from yesterday morning.   Crazy.   This is definitely not decided yet.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That nav model must be real old tech, It has that low way north lol.

[Sandy rocks]

I grew up in Cathlamet, Wa, west of Longview. Name is similar to the indian name for the Lewis. The county is Wahkiakum, which was the name of one of the chiefs.  Cathlamet was quite a large community of maybe 1,000 which is larger than the current town. It was a prominent tribe on the lower Columbia.

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

send these bad boys in a little further south and we got ourselves a stew goin'

 

Wow that looks perfect right there, thank you  

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Awesome!   That is impressive for your area.

Absolutely! Yet our district has only one day allocated for snow each year so they hate using it. If used, the Fri before Memorial Day becomes a half day instead. Last year we had nothing that would be close to a snow day but used it due to a power outage that only existed at the school. We had about 15 minutes to play in it before taking him via sled to school. Would have loved a late start but they plowed all the roads shortly before school.

[Doinko]

UKMET looks south as well

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, RentonHill said:

send these bad boys in a little further south and we got ourselves a stew goin'

 

Good point, it's very possible and perhaps something to watch out for. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It would be awesome for the arctic front to leave a few inches for western Wa and then the bigger batch move in south so everyone would have a prize. That would be perfect and be colder longer leaving the door open for even more snow like 2008 and other examples like that. I'm always scared of a last minute north trend that will fry all of us.

Edited January 10 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[ShawniganLake]

Pretty wild model swings and variations for what happens next week.  Like we have literally no Clue where this is going.  

[SnowWillarrive]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

That nav model must be real old tech, It has that low way north lol.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Pretty wild model swings and variations for what happens next week.  Like we have literally no Clue where this is going.  

Odds are for the south solution but we have been burnt by this so many times i lost count.