January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[ShawniganLake]

Hanging on to hope up north with the Navy model

 

[Mid Valley Duck]

3 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Devastating trendz for pdx

FWIW 72 hours out for last nights event the ICON had that system south of TWL. So not sure how reliable it is with that far south of a solution. But at face value I wouldn’t even get any precip 

[MWG]

Well looks like that all night just rain and stayed around 39F and 37F and currently still 37F. I think last night was our only chance to see accumulating snow. 

[MossMan]

A mix and 33.4 currently. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Hanging on to hope up north with the Navy model

 

Would also be a hilarious outcome given how much weenie mode there has been about a dry blast!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

FWIW 72 hours out for last nights event the ICON had that system south of TWL. So not sure how reliable it is with that far south of a solution. But at face value I wouldn’t even get any precip 

I think you will get precip, question is will it be ZR or snow, snow chances seem to have improved dramatically in the past 24 hours. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

13 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Ice accumulations light through midnight.

Looks like the snow/ice line reaches south PDX Metro. But initially down to around Wilsonville it starts off as snow.

[LowerGarfield]

3.5 inches of snow and not even a late start.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Hanging on to hope up north with the Navy model

 

And then you have the brand new 12Z RDPS hot of the presses... going waaaaaaay south.     Is Tiger too far north??  

[runninthruda206]

Man if  we don’t even see flakes fly in Seattle tmrw evening…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

And then you have the brand new 12Z RDPS hot of the presses... going waaaaaaay south.     Is Tiger too far north??  

All he wants is a sub-freezing high. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

3.5 inches of snow and not even a late start.

Awesome!   That is impressive for your area.

[RaleighHillsRunner]

First flakes of the season last night but nothing around this AM. Temp 34. Models wanna push this thing south of PDX but I think we’ll be able to snag something going into the cold weekend. Sunday/Monday with clear skies, frigid temps and something on the ground would be a great holiday weekend.  

[MossMan]

I bet Tim is frothing from the mouth to tell us the 12z GFS has shifted the low south to San Francisco. Only a few more minutes to go!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, LowerGarfield said:

3.5 inches of snow and not even a late start.

As of right now my daughter is on a 2-hour delay. She was hoping for a full day. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

I bet Tim is frothing from the mouth to tell us the 12z GFS has shifted the low south to San Francisco. Only a few more minutes to go!

Should be interesting.   I wonder if it will keep SW WA in the game?   Or maybe bring it all back  up to Vancouver BC??  

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Should be interesting.   I wonder if it will keep SW WA in the game?   Or maybe bring it all back  up to Vancouver BC??  

Nah this one is over for anyone north of Portland. Even they are in trouble now. 

[Olive1010]

Dang it

[TT-SEA]

Daylight has revealed another slushy coating in places here.   Still really windy too as is common in the rain shadow.

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And then you have the brand new 12Z RDPS hot of the presses... going waaaaaaay south.     Is Tiger too far north??  

Probably!

Abbotsford is forecast to drop from 32 to  18 with the passage of the arctic front tomorrow afternoon.  
 

Official forecast for a high of only 9F on Friday with clear skies.  Fraser River outflow will be impressive with this. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I know I'm going to get a lot of hate for this, but I love these trends. A strong low level arctic push like this is much more rare than a little snow. Especially in January! At the end of the day I might root against your snow, but I'll never root against your cold. On top of that we are doing this during a strong Nino, talk about playing with house money!

[The Winter Warlock]

2 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Dang it

WHAT IS THIS, A MAP FOR ANTS?  

[iFred]

Welp this sucks.

Going to get the Tim special. A clear and dry bout of cold air that moderates before the moisture shows up and then bam, springtime.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Daylight has revealed another slushy coating in places here.   Still really windy too as is common in the rain shadow.

The wind last night was ridiculous here once that low passed just to our north. Much of our area lost power, but fortunately we did not. 

[Timmy]

Hour 48, gfs looks like it may not back down!

[MossMan]

Everything…And I say  EVERYTHING rides on tomorrow’s arctic front having some unforeseen extra juice (as in moisture) as it starts moving south tomorrow. If not we are complete toast along with my poor grass that will get nuked by the dogs without any snow cover to protect it. 
 

This is 2009 all over again. I lost a pizza bet at my old job because of that stupid setup. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is a little faster with the arctic air tomorrow... but still takes until evening to go below freezing in Seattle.   

Arctic front snow and temps early Friday morning.    Guessing this is still too warm for Portland.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is a little faster with the arctic air tomorrow... but still takes until evening to go below freezing in Seattle.   

Arctic front snow and temps early Friday morning.    Guessing this is still too warm for Portland.

Doesn't take much of a guess when we have a map showing it in the low 40s. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Hour 48, gfs looks like it may not back down!

Slight shift south on Friday but still nowhere close to as far south as the other models.

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I know I'm going to get a lot of hate for this, but I love these trends. A strong low level arctic push like this is much more rare than a little snow. Especially in January! At the end of the day I might root against your snow, but I'll never root against your cold. On top of that we are doing this during a strong Nino, talk about playing with house money!

If we do get some snow we could put up colder temps Monday on

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is a little faster with the arctic air tomorrow... but still takes until evening to go below freezing in Seattle.   

Arctic front snow and temps early Friday morning.    Guessing this is still too warm for Portland.

Our friend in Port Angeles will be the big winner! 

[Timmy]

In gfs we trust!

[RaleighHillsRunner]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I know I'm going to get a lot of hate for this, but I love these trends. A strong low level arctic push like this is much more rare than a little snow. Especially in January! At the end of the day I might root against your snow, but I'll never root against your cold. On top of that we are doing this during a strong Nino, talk about playing with house money!

Sort of agree, but easier said from your castle on the hill  

[TT-SEA]

GFS is waaaaay north of the other models on Saturday morning.  

[TT-SEA]

Seattle is still in the game on this run!   Amazing.

[ShawniganLake]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

As of right now my daughter is on a 2-hour delay. She was hoping for a full day. 

How much snow did you get. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

The GFS is going to look brilliant or incredibly stupid.

[Prairiedog]

58 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'd rather get cold than no cold, but I get I'm in the minority with that.

 

My friend has 2" at the top of Chehalem Mtn.  You've piqued my interest in those two spots for snowfall and temps.  She won't be nearly as detailed as you but might get a reasonable comparison. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Seattle is still in the game on this run!   Amazing.

At this point, the GFS is becoming like a sticky booger you can't get off your finger.

[Cascadia_Wx]

22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

@Cascadia_Wx any thoughts on highs at PDX over the weekend? 

Assuming there is no major winter storm, Monday might be a good day to head out to the gorge and check out frozen waterfalls. 

Saturday stands to be pretty chilly right now. Likely they will have a midnight high, but depending on how fast the cold air pushes in they could still eke out something sub-25. Saturday afternoon could see temps around 20 degrees or even the upper teens if we get some overrunning.

I’m thinking something in the 25-30 range is possible for PDX Sunday/Monday, especially with any snowcover. Lows in the teens likely on those days as well, as things stand now.

Moderation could be relatively slow next week. Wouldn’t surprise me to see highs stay sub-40 through at least mid week, maybe beyond.