January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well that would be a disaster.   

Regional!

[snow_wizard]

I'm sure somebody posted this, but it's worth posting again.  18z EPS upped the ante for next week.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Regional!

Can't imagine such a widespread ice event.  It hardly ever works that way.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm sure somebody posted this, but it's worth posting again.  18z EPS upped the ante for next week.

Was a great improvement!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm sure somebody posted this, but it's worth posting again.  18z EPS upped the ante for next week.

I’m cautiously optimistic. The blast is fading into lingering low-level cold. Things shouldn’t get pushed south this time.

[RCola]

RGEM turns south of the border into an ice rink. Yuck. 

Hope the Euro either gives us snow or rain. No ice.

[Ken in Wood Village]

I found this off Facebook. This is Portland. I hope you are able to read the caption at the bottom of the picture. It's amazing

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Can't imagine such a widespread ice event.  It hardly ever works that way.

December 2022 shows that occasionally, however, it does.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Can't imagine such a widespread ice event.  It hardly ever works that way.

As funny as the videos of people sliding on ice were I would massively prefer snow.

[Slushy Inch]

Back to snow after ice storm? What! Whatever happens this will be a wild one. Low is farther south.

[Weiner Warrior]

Yes

[Weiner Warrior]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Yes

That low keeps trending south. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

Oh, GFS, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, um, can't fool me twice.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Fun... snow to ice to rain to snow to rain.   

[Phishy Wx]

been stuck at 0 for 3 hours.  High for today.

looks like a 0/-11 day

[bainbridgekid]

Really unusual setup on the 00z GFS with the low initially pulling North enough warm air to start as Freezing Rain/Rain Tuesday night South of Bellingham and then pulling new Fraser Outflow Wednesday morning with a good thump of snow around Puget Sound. Can’t think of a storm that quite worked out that way here but it’s certainly possible.

[Ken in Wood Village]

The two masses are creating showers 🌨

[TT-SEA]

GEM looks real fun too!  

[ajreich]

Just now, Ken in Wood Village said:

The two masses are creating showers 🌨

We’re under that and a good little burst of snow

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Really unusual setup on the 00z GFS with the low initially pulling North enough warm air to start as Freezing Rain/Rain Tuesday night South of Bellingham and then pulling new Fraser Outflow Wednesday morning with a good thump of snow around Puget Sound. Can’t think of a storm that quite worked out that way here but it’s certainly possible.

Probably getting some details that euro will nail down better wrong. For example Euro has low much deeper.

[Weiner Warrior]

Northbend ice storm on GFS for @TT-SEA

[crf450ish]

53 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Pretty insane that the top two coldest days in Bozeman history (records go back to 1892) are now Dec. 2022 and Jan. 2024. Incredible recorded breaking and brutally cold day.

Al Gore would disagree.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

GEM looks real fun too!  

Yuck. Gem didn’t get the trend south memo.

[Weiner Warrior]

Definitely a weird set up but temps still look cool so hoping for more snow than ice/rain.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Even if the Tuesday system somehow makes landfall on the central Oregon coast I have no doubt pdx would just see more sleet. That’s a warm weather system.

[SnowWillarrive]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That low keeps trending south. 

More south trends to come 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Gem is flopping more than any model right now for mid week. Pretty good aggremnt on low pressure crossing into Washington someplace between forks and ocean shores right now

[Christensen87]

So now us Seattle folks are on the trend south train

[TT-SEA]

GEM is still good up north and that ice storm on this run probably wouldn't be too bad with temps in the low 30s and then warming.  This run does the hand off farther north so there is less cold air available.    Just reminder... the Wednesday system provides new cold for areas that get snow.   Its not dependent on retaining this cold air.   But it does need to have cold air pushed south from Canada to work. 

[Gummy]

10 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Oh, GFS, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, um, can't fool me twice.

The GFS has fooled me more times  than I can count. I should just stick to the EPS, I can't help myself though, I can checking out the GFS regardless.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

9 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

The two masses are creating showers 🌨

Starting to get heavy snow again. Cell is headed straight here. Here we go again!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GEM is still good up north and that ice storm on this run probably wouldn't be too bad with temps in the low 30s and then warming.  This run does the hand off farther north so there is less cold air available.    Just reminder... this Wednesday system provides new cold for area that get snow.   Its not dependent on retaining this cold air.   But it does need to have cold air pushed south from Canada to work. 

Unless models are warming us up to fast. Very possible,  this is a very dense cold airmass in western Washington. 

[ArcticAirmassLover]

Hey everybody! New Member here, been lurking around since the 2019-20 season (I think) and decided to give this a go if we ever get a regional arctic event. I considered this as close as we can get and made the decision lol.

In all honesty, I had very low expectations for this airmass to make it to my region (South Valley - West Eugene), but actually turned out to be a massive over performer! I was thinking that freezing rain would be the "best case scenario". Was pleasantly surprised to not only awaken this morning to sleet and upper 20's, it STAYED below 30F with sleet accumulation throughout the day! Totaled 1.5", truly wasn't expecting this.

Conditions right now 20F with freezing drizzle

P.S. How did Phil get into Pacific Northwest climatology?

[ajreich]

4 minutes ago, ArcticAirmassLover said:

Hey everybody! New Member here, been lurking around since the 2019-20 season (I think) and decided to give this a go if we ever get a regional arctic event. I considered this as close as we can get and made the decision lol.

In all honesty, I had very low expectations for this airmass to make it to my region (South Valley - West Eugene), but actually turned out to be a massive over performer! I was thinking that freezing rain would be the "best case scenario". Was pleasantly surprised to not only awaken this morning to sleet and upper 20's, it STAYED below 30F with sleet accumulation throughout the day! Totaled 1.5", truly wasn't expecting this.

Conditions right now 20F with freezing drizzle

P.S. How did Phil get into Pacific Northwest climatology?

Welcome!

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Unless models are warming us up to fast. Very possible,  this is a very dense cold airmass in western Washington. 

All that does is produce freezing rain.   The initial upper levels are not good for snow when this storm starts.   It needs to pull down cold air to produce snow.   That is why all the models are showing the leading precip as freezing rain.     

You have to separate the current event in terms of snow for the next system.   The cold air is all gone by Tuesday night except for a shallow layer near the ground.    This is not our normal overrunning transition event.   Those usually go snow to sleet to freezing rain to rain.  

[Ken in Wood Village]

The caption says it all. I'm posting two pictures. On what it's about and the other without so you can see the whole picture. 

[Hawksfan2008]

GEFS not looking great 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Found a couple -42 readings in Montana already.  Incredible 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just got an email from PSE.