January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[TT-SEA]

23 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Tim will not be happy. 

I don't think it will last long enough or be cold enough to be that bad.    For reasons stated several times.    

[Hawksfan2008]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What does snow map look like

[Doinko]

Max temp for today at PDX is still 23, if that holds then it'll be 23/17 there today after a 21/15 day yesterday.

[Winterdog]

34 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Beating you this second!! 26.4! 

Is your station up on Weather Underground?  I notice a station just off English Grade Rd that seems to agree with your readings posted here.  The site is named Trillium Park.  Is that you?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Be interesting to see how much evaporative cooling comes into play Tuesday night throughout the layers.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

17 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Showing around 2 or 3 here.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Is your station up on Weather Underground?  I notice a station just off English Grade Rd that seems to agree with your readings posted here.  The site is named Trillium Park.  Is that you?

No, I tried last year to get it online but kept having connectivity issues for some reason. I think the one you see is about a quarter mile north of me so our numbers should be quite comparable. One difference is that they are nearly 50’ lower in elevation and pretty treeless in a newer small development just to the left of my arrow. they always have less snow than me during marginal events. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Had a 29 12 day here. Currently 26 and falling fast, should be some impressive lows all across the area again.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

No, I tried last year to get it online but kept having connectivity issues for some reason. I think the one you see is about a quarter mile north of me so our numbers should be quite comparable. One difference is that they are nearly 50’ lower in elevation and pretty treeless in a newer small development just to the left of my arrow. they always have less snow than me during marginal events. 

I never could get mine online either.  Not easy. 

[MossMan]

30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't think it will last long enough or be cold enough to be that bad.    For reasons stated several times.    

Come on Tim…I know you want a big ice event!! 

[Winterdog]

14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

No, I tried last year to get it online but kept having connectivity issues for some reason. I think the one you see is about a quarter mile north of me so our numbers should be quite comparable. One difference is that they are nearly 50’ lower in elevation and pretty treeless in a newer small development just to the left of my arrow. they always have less snow than me during marginal events. 

I’m KWAARLIN42 if you ever get bored enough to look

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I looked back on that January 2012 ice storm Puget sound had and I got 8 inches of snow and no ice. 

[SnowWillarrive]

18 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Be interesting to see how much evaporative cooling comes into play Tuesday night throughout the layers.

I was wondering about that. NWS now saying they don’t expect freezing rain to be a big issue. Could even get a little snow. 

[TT-SEA]

This is why a bad ice storm is unlikely.   The ECMWF is much more reliable with precip amounts and temps during freezing rain event are marginal for significant accumulation.      

[TT-SEA]

That being said... I am certain schools will be delayed or closed Wednesday out here because the school district won't want to risk it.   Probably many other places too.

[Winterdog]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This is why a bad ice storm is unlikely.   The ECMWF is much more reliable with precip amounts and temps during freezing rain event are marginal for significant accumulation.      

It shows me with over 1/2” and I’ve lived here for 33 years and never had anything close to that amount

[TacomaWx]

30/13 temp spread today. 3 consecutive sub highs. Should be another very cold night into the teens. 

[Slushy Inch]

South!

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This is why a bad ice storm is unlikely.   The ECMWF is much more reliable with precip amounts and temps during freezing rain event are marginal for significant accumulation.      

Hmmm…That shows more ice and cooler temps at my place…

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

It shows me with over 1/2” and I’ve lived here for 33 years and never had anything close to that amount

I was just going to say….

[MossMan]

23.7 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

It shows me with over 1/2” and I’ve lived here for 33 years and never had anything close to that amount

But it won't be that high due to marginal temps.  And it shows less than GFS.  And half inch isn't really that bad either.  

[the_convergence_zone]

I have no doubt that Seattle will see freezing rain up until the warm front passes through on Wednesday morning. So around 1/3” of ice (assuming it all freezes which it won’t). I’m sure schools will close and most people will stay home, by the evening it should be fine.

The good news is that the warmup will be quick and widespread so this doesn’t look like it will be a disaster. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

11 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

South!

That is interesting 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I have no doubt that Seattle will see freezing rain up until the warm front passes through on Wednesday morning. So around 1/3” of ice (assuming it all freezes which it won’t). I’m sure schools will close and most people will stay home, by the evening it should be fine.

The good news is that the warmup will be quick and widespread so this doesn’t look like it will be a disaster. 

My thinking too.   It will be disruptive for sure.   But not catastrophic like what happened in Oregon in Feb 2021..

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

My thinking too.   It will be disruptive for sure.   But not catastrophic like what happened in Oregon in Feb 2021..

It’ll probably be enough to cause the roads to be slick as sh*t but no tree damage. 

[MV_snow]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This is why a bad ice storm is unlikely.   The ECMWF is much more reliable with precip amounts and temps during freezing rain event are marginal for significant accumulation.      

I hope you’re right but others have said the models tend to scour out the low level cold air too fast. I think that would be especially true by the foothills. That said, maybe the east winds will eat into our precip… something I hate during snow but would love here!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

How is the 18z euro looking for low placement?

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

Finishing the day with a nice griddle cook 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone said:

Finishing the day with a nice griddle cook 

Looks fun!

[TacomaWx]

Just now, MV_snow said:

I hope you’re right but others have said the models tend to scour out the low level cold air too fast. I think that would be especially true by the foothills. That said, maybe the east winds will eat into our precip… something I hate during snow but would love here!

The temps starting out with this event versus December 2022. Is a big difference. Rain started at 24 degrees here. Would be closer to freezing at the start this time. 

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Max temp for today at PDX is still 23, if that holds then it'll be 23/17 there today after a 21/15 day yesterday.

And both SEA and PDX kinda underperformed compared to other locations nearby. 

[Tanis Leach]

Assuming the 23 is the highest today, that's the 2nd record cold high in a row (old record 24 in 1950). Tomorrow's record cold high is 28 in 2017. I think we can kiss that one goodbye. 

Tomorrow's record low is 19 (the warmest record low in January). That's also in serious danger. 

 

Another 0.1 inch of snow makes this month contain 1.7 inches. 

[Cold Snap]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

How is the 18z euro looking for low placement?

 

[Snownerd3000]

I know we've moderated today but D**n is it still cold. Walked the pup and I'm layered up and still freezing cold 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

 

Looks close to 12z. MY GOD THAT IS CLOSE

[Winterdog]

Seattle topped out at 31 today and currently at 28.  Looking good for a below normal month since they are sitting at somewhere around 37 for an average through the 13th

[TacomaWx]

Is the cold air at the upper levels too warm though? On the 18z euro map it looks like freezing rain is falling north of the low as well. 

[MossMan]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But it won't be that high due to marginal temps.  And it shows less than GFS.  And half inch isn't really that bad either.  

 

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But it won't be that high due to marginal temps.  And it shows less than GFS.  And half inch isn't really that bad either.  

Shows my area being in the 29-30 degree range and with how cold all the surfaces are…But like I said I know nothing about ice forecasting. How do the dew points look leading into this? 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Winterdog said:

Seattle topped out at 31 today and currently at 28.  Looking good for a below normal month since they are sitting at somewhere around 37 for an average through the 13th

I beat you again! I hit 28.6!