January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This evening is pretty much the only chance for snow.

You getting any yet?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

How did they do in February 2021? 

Not sure, but one of the members up there mentioned this being the third in a row.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This evening is pretty much the only chance for snow.

You didn't see the NWS update? Your WWA has been extended and you have a WSW for tomorrow.

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not sure how you folks up north are doing on precipitation this month, but we are running some modest surpluses down here. Almost a total lock to end up at least average and with wet weather ahead will probably be above average by the time all is said and done. 

I saw some 60 burgers at the end of the latest Euro run, Andrew

[ajreich]

This is cool, we are right on the edge of the warm and cold air masses, keep ping ponging between fog and 30 degrees and clear(er) and 37. Change happens almost instantaneously. 

Bad news is we had a pipe burst with the thaw. No water for us

[MossMan]

A few flurries falling again. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

How did they do in February 2021? 

I was in Bellingham at the time and Bellingham did great. But the cutoff line for the heaviest snow was just north of Bellingham. Lower Mainland got some, but nowhere near as much.

[Meatyorologist]

...

[snow_wizard]

No doubt the end of the month has the interest of the models right now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

No doubt the end of the month has the interest of the models right now.

This run is a few minor details away from a real blast. As is a chilly little weather maker from the north drops in. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Wind has gone calm at PDX, and they are sitting at freezing at the 3 o’clock hour. I wonder if the southerlies will break through there soon.

Still have light easterlies here, and holding at 31. Pouring out there but it’s close enough to freezing now where ice isn’t accumulating as quickly.

[Phishy Wx]

blowing and drifting starting to commence

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

...

Why? You trying to get banned? Posting snow pics in your yard and then this, what, an hour later?  Brave.

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It’s too bad we couldn’t get a little more snow with the mid and upper levels cooling and cold air remaining at the surface. Kind of like they’re seeing up north today. But that’s definitely wishful thinking.

Unfortunate balance. 850s do briefly go below freezing for us today but by then the rest of the column is f*cked and completely saturated, and offshore flow doesn't reassert itself until tomorrow as the upper levels resume warming. 

[Phishy Wx]

this thing is booking out of here, probably wrap up in the next hour ish

[OysterPrintout]

Low level cold hung on a lot longer as usual. Thought I might have a chance of getting to work today but the car is still a popsicle and the side roads very treacherous.

Impressive that even mets who have been here for many years still bust on this. Mark's forecast last night for 4PM in Portland was FORTY SIX DEGREES. Currently 32.

[Andstorm]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Euro agrees with the rest of the models in showing the strong outflow tomorrow. Just keeps temps a degree or two too warm for ZR. 

It also shows the gorge fully mixing out tonight with the westerly surge behind the low, so that's probably the kicker in terms of keeping our coolant supply sufficient for tomorrow's precip. But the Euro is likely being too aggressive with that gorge warmup as it has been with ours in the metro area. So it seems like a midday dip below freezing is very possible.

I think it’s a classic case of EURO overdoing the warmup but GFS seems pretty off its meds with outflow pushing temps back to the 20s with fairly substantial and widespread ZR. Such a scenario would be almost unprecedented in my 40 years of living in this area and being pretty glued to weather events. What is instead likely to occur is areas in Gorge never warm up and they experience a second surge of nasty weather tomorrow and probably beyond. The extended Gorge events are a dime a dozen and this has all the ingredients for another one. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

Looks like we're back to rain. Hopefully only a short while.

[BlvuSumit]

Snowing at my home in Bellevue (1170’). 32F

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

I saw some 60 burgers at the end of the latest Euro run, Andrew

Uh oh. 

[RCola]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

...

Honestly bring it. Tired of chilly rain and dry cold. Need a hard reset.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

You didn't see the NWS update? Your WWA has been extended and you have a WSW for tomorrow.

I thought the mid levels would be too warm for the next system, but the latest GFS shows it being a close call tomorrow evening.

[Andstorm]

1 minute ago, OysterPrintout said:

Low level cold hung on a lot longer as usual. Thought I might have a chance of getting to work today but the car is still a popsicle and the side roads very treacherous.

Impressive that even mets who have been here for many years still bust on this. Mark's forecast last night for 4PM in Portland was FORTY SIX DEGREES. Currently 32.

It happens every time. incredibly smart, well meaning mets fall for the model mirage of fast warmups. It’s tricky because usually when the true warmup comes it goes pretty quick. But I don’t know a fraction of what Mark knows and told everyone I knew not to listen to mets and plan on it being near freezing most day. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The end of the GFS is very intriguing, but doesn't quite get there. 

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This run is a few minor details away from a real blast. As is a chilly little weather maker from the north drops in. 

The CFS has shown a lot of interest in this period.

It would be amazing to get more cold so soon after this given the circumstances.  MJO baby!

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

Foggy, drippy, and sloppy icy slushy days barely above freezing like this really make me wish it was like this all year long. Just incredible 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The end of the GFS is very intriguing, but doesn't quite get there. 

With a few tweaks this is a lot like last week.

[Andstorm]

1 minute ago, RCola said:

Honestly bring it. Tired of chilly rain and dry cold. Need a hard reset.

I tend to agree. the slow death of these patterns generates a lot of “one last hope” type analysis. best to just hard reset this thing and see if we get a reload of some kind down road. not counting on it. 

[Doinko]

Even Hillsboro is still at 34. Ice is still holding on to plants and trees and roads are really slippery

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

With i90 now closed over Snoqualmie Pass (nothing posted as to when it will reopen but it closed before the scheduled closure at 3 which was for avalanche control because of accidents, so probably a bit)

AND 

Stevens Pass closed with a posted " no estimated time for reopening" 

AND

White Pass closed due to a snow slide with again a posted "no estimate to reopening" 

All eyes are on the Gorge as the only way from western WA to Eastern WA. Hope they can reopen i90 soon!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

With a few tweaks this is a lot like last week.

Yeah, I'd like to see the energy in the pacific a little further west and a prettier ridge, but it's close. Here is what I thought was the best frame of the CFS. 

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

I think it’s a classic case of EURO overdoing the warmup but GFS seems pretty off its meds with outflow pushing temps back to the 20s with fairly substantial and widespread ZR. Such a scenario would be almost unprecedented in my 40 years of living in this area and being pretty glued to weather events. What is instead likely to occur is areas in Gorge never warm up and they experience a second surge of nasty weather tomorrow and probably beyond. The extended Gorge events are a dime a dozen and this has all the ingredients for another one. 

Definitely. Anything below 32 or maybe 31 at PDX with the surge tomorrow would be a major surprise. Should hopefully keep any ice accumulations light. The precip rates look pretty heavy and the timing would be disastrous with it coinciding with the evening commute, so hopefully we avoid it altogether. 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

With a few tweaks this is a lot like last week.

Phil says that is impossible until late February. 

[MossMan]

Even though it was only 2” it was nice that today wasn’t a true overrunner…Trees are still flocked with flurries again instead of meltfest and slop 

Edited January 17 by MossMan

[MossMan]

Did Tim take another Timout? 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Even though it was only 2” it was nice that today wasn’t a true overrunner…Trees are still flocked with flurries again. 

I’m mostly glad you got something so we won’t have to see a barf emoji from you every time January 2024 is brought up now

[smerfylicious]

SNOWBALL FIIIIGHT

 

 

[LowerGarfield]

Very heavy sleet, around 3pm when I left to pick up my son. It switched to snow when I came back. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Grateful for any help y’all have given. Springfield is an absolute disaster right now. Hard to believe how bad it is.

Venmo is @Jerseys4Hope if possible. I can’t believe that we don’t even have water.  

 

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Total devastation. Uprooted trees. Etc.