January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The GFS has caught scent of something in early February.  It has been consistent in showing some pretty chilly weather at least.

I'm really concerned about a torch the final 3 or 4 days of the month that could ruin our cold monthly average though.

Oh yeah, we are currently running about a -5ish departure down this way, but I know we are going to lose a lot of it. It's too bad, but gives us something to top next year. At least we will most likely have a below average month, and coldest January since 2017. 

[snow_wizard]

8 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

That is a DISGUSTING warm anomaly

Really amazing though.  To say the least the atmosphere is in a very perturbed state this winter.  Kind of like the 1920s and 30s.  Things can get very interesting when we get into this mode.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh yeah, we are currently running about a -5ish departure down this way, but I know we are going to lose a lot of it. It's too bad, but gives us something to top next year. At least we will most likely have a below average month, and coldest January since 2017. 

We could get lucky with the situation at the end of the month with a few tweaks.  We may be able to get some inversion aspect to it.....maybe.

At any rate Whatcom County and Central / Eastern WA look safe at this point.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

I’m going to have to strip the wire from the solar panel to the anemometer and solder it to one from a 5V adapter. What a useless piece of junk, can’t keep the batteries charged for more than 2 weeks at a time…pathetic.

I’ve lost so much wind data over the last 2 months.  

We still have so far to go with solar power.  Too bad it's so hard to harness that energy.  

[Phil]

All three ensemble means (GEFS, GEPS, EPS) have a strong Scandinavian trough signal D10-15. In conjunction with the recovering PV/equatorward wave reflection muting MJO transit into W-Hem (high AAM state gets prolonged).

Bad bad bad bad bad. Hell, could even be the worst possible setup for late winter during El Niño. I think the odds of winter being “over” are up to 50% now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

We could get lucky with the situation at the end of the month with a few tweaks.  We may be able to get some inversion aspect to it.....maybe.

At any rate Whatcom County and Central / Eastern WA look safe at this point.

You have to feel good about what we just experienced. We will have a regional dud sooner than later, but it's nice to spread those out as few and as far between as we can. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

All three ensemble means (GEFS, GEPS, EPS) have a strong Scandinavian trough signal D10-15. In conjunction with the recovering PV/equatorward wave reflection muting MJO transit into W-Hem (high AAM state gets prolonged).

Bad bad bad bad bad. Hell, could even be the worst possible setup for late winter during El Niño. I think the odds of winter being “over” are up to 50% now.

It does look like it may be over for the East Coast. But late February could still deliver for you guys. 

[snow_wizard]

9 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Funny how there's still some of that arctic air sitting around, albeit heavily modified and in imminent danger of being scoured out.

That Arctic blast sure delivered the payload.  Parts of the NW have been living off that for over a week now.  Pretty lucky the pattern evolved how it did to keep the cold air around as long as it was.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You have to feel good about what we just experienced. We will have a regional dud sooner than later, but it's nice to spread those out as few and as far between as we can. 

No doubt.  This thing was pretty top drawer and in the cursed month of January.  If ENSO plays out the way it appears it will we should be good for something next winter as well.  Kind of mind blowing every winter from 2016-17 to present has had something worth while up here except 2019-20 south of Seattle.  Really kind of a 1920s vibe.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

That Arctic blast sure delivered the payload.  Parts of the NW have been living off that for over a week now.  Pretty lucky the pattern evolved how it did to keep the cold air around as long as it was.

Think about this, Jim. Salem had their coldest back to back highs in January in over 70 years, with 850mb temps above 0C the entire time! Just absolutely incredible. Here is the chart for SLE comparing 850mb temps and 2m temps. Unbelievable low level BLAST!

 

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It does look like it may be over for the East Coast. But late February could still deliver for you guys. 

The upcoming pattern will resemble December. Which will suck for almost everyone, especially west/central Canada. If I had to choose, I think I’d rather be here than up there, but long odds either way.

Only reason I’m not on the winter cancel train yet is because there’s enough time for a dynamic final warming late Feb/early Mar.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

The upcoming pattern will resemble December. Which will suck for almost everyone, but I’d still rather be here than up there.

Only reason I’m not on the winter cancel train is because there’s enough time for a dynamic final warming late Feb/early Mar.

It's funny. After seeing the models the past couple of days I knew you were going to be on here emoting at any moment. Because the number one screaming signal is a massive east coast ridge/torch. You just finally had a nice snow event. ENJOY it! 

Edited January 21 by SilverFallsAndrew

[MossMan]

Must have been taken in March with the big snow remnants. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We could get lucky with the situation at the end of the month with a few tweaks.  We may be able to get some inversion aspect to it.....maybe.

At any rate Whatcom County and Central / Eastern WA look safe at this point.

Portland area seems pretty close to a lock too. We’ve warmed up a lot slower than other areas.

[Cascadia_Wx]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It does look like it may be over for the East Coast. But late February could still deliver for you guys. 

Did you see that early February troughing on the 12z GFS, Andrew?!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Portland area seems pretty close to a lock too. We’ve warmed up a lot slower than other areas.

Eugene could cut it close if we torch to close out the month. They are only at a -2.6 departure. PDX is -4.4 and SLE is -5.0. Given we are about 2/3 through the month they'd have to run about 8-10F above normal the rest of the way to get to average. The one nice thing about our current climate averages is an "average" day right now is 49/36. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Eugene could cut it close if we torch to close out the month. They are only at a -2.6 departure. PDX is -4.4 and SLE is -5.0. Given we are about 2/3 through the month they'd have to run about 8-10F above normal the rest of the way to get to average. The one nice thing about our current climate averages is an "average" day right now is 49/36. 

True. Still for it to be a notably good January average I’d at least like to see it land below the long term January mean. Which would be something under 40 for PDX. Let’s see if they can do it.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's funny. After seeing the models the past couple of days I knew you were going to be on here emoting at any moment. Because the number one screaming signal is a massive east coast ridge/torch. You just finally had a nice snow event. ENJOY it! 

Haha. I haven’t the slightest clue what y’all are seeing in the pattern, but I suppose if you enjoyed the December pattern, you’ll enjoy the February pattern as well.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

41.2˚F. First time since the 10th that the temperature has been 40+.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

35 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Really amazing though.  To say the least the atmosphere is in a very perturbed state this winter.  Kind of like the 1920s and 30s.  Things can get very interesting when we get into this mode.

Things have been disturbed for about 5 years now. Something has definitely shifted in favor for us to have big snow events and major cold waves along with heat waves. Next winter could really be a wild ride.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

31 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That Arctic blast sure delivered the payload.  Parts of the NW have been living off that for over a week now.  Pretty lucky the pattern evolved how it did to keep the cold air around as long as it was.

Still 29 at my cabin, looks to be about the coldest area in the state currently.  Running a 12.9 average on the month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Did you see that early February troughing on the 12z GFS, Andrew?!

It looked wonderful. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Things have been disturbed for about 5 years now. Something has definitely shifted in favor for us to have big snow events and major cold waves along with heat waves. Next winter could really be a wild ride.

Yeah but we should keep in mind than on the whole things have still been way warmer than normal, in every season. There have just been more big swings at points in the winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Weird, I don't remember a stormy pattern in California in December...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Haha. I haven’t the slightest clue what y’all are seeing in the pattern, but I suppose if you enjoyed the December pattern, you’ll enjoy the February pattern as well.  

It won't stay like that all month Phillip. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It looked wonderful. 

Glorious! 

[LowerGarfield]

We're above freezing for the first time since two Thursdays ago.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

True. Still for it to be a notably good January average I’d at least like to see it land below the long term January mean. Which would be something under 40 for PDX. Let’s see if they can do it.

Agreed, we'll see what we can do. It's in GODS hands now. I'm just taking time to be grateful it wasn't a January 2019 type torch-fest. 

 

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yeah but we should keep in mind than on the whole things have still been way warmer than normal, in every season. There have just been more big swings at points in the winter.

Definitely, especially in the May-October period. It does seem as if our climate has trended towards being much more dynamic, I would start in the fall of 2016. 

[Phil]

Note the trend in the D10 GEFS.

Effects of PV recovery (warming tropical tropopause dampening MJO amplitude relative to low pass/niño signal) and momentum deposition augment the PT (pacific trough) pattern, which scours out all arctic air from W-Canada.

Guidance catches onto this as it gets closer in time.

[seattleweatherguy]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Haha. I haven’t the slightest clue what y’all are seeing in the pattern, but I suppose if you enjoyed the December pattern, you’ll enjoy the February pattern as well.  

Phil does this mean winter is over? That Jan blast despite not much snow was awesome. If only we had snow on the ground before it got cold…

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Agreed, we'll see what we can do. It's in GODS hands now. I'm just taking time to be grateful it wasn't a January 2019 type torch-fest. 

 

Definitely, especially in the May-October period. It does seem as if our climate has trended towards being much more dynamic, I would start in the fall of 2016. 

TRUMP

[snow_wizard]

23 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Must have been taken in March with the big snow remnants. 

Just amazing how different things looked back then.  Kind of funny how the Medina sign is on the ground. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yeah but we should keep in mind than on the whole things have still been way warmer than normal, in every season. There have just been more big swings at points in the winter.

True, but it is still swinging both ways and can you imagine how bad it would be if we didn't get these cold spells?!! The glaciers in the Olympics are barely hanging on at this point because of the warm springs and summers. Scary and sad. I remember growing up and even in summer you could see massive snow left on the Olympics.  Not anymore. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, seattleweatherguy said:

Phil does this mean winter is over? That Jan blast despite not much snow was awesome. If only we had snow on the ground before it got cold…

I wouldn’t say that yet, but February is probably a lost cause now. Unless there a massive, systematic error in guidance over Eurasia during week-2.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

True, but it is still swinging both ways and can you imagine how bad it would be if we didn't get these cold spells?!! The glaciers in the Olympics are barely hanging on at this point because of the warm springs and summers. Scary and sad. I remember growing up and even in summer you could see massive snow left on the Olympics.  Not anymore. 

I agree this has definitely been better than some alternatives, with a warming climate.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I wouldn’t say that yet, but February is probably a lost cause now. Unless there a massive, systematic error in guidance over Eurasia during week-2.

I remember when you were saying January was a lost cause too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

TRUMP

They say the LORD works in MYSTERIOUS wayz. 

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yeah but we should keep in mind than on the whole things have still been way warmer than normal, in every season. There have just been more big swings at points in the winter.

I'm going to look into your claim about every season being warmer.  Not sure that is true.  Probably time to run the numbers.

[RaleighHillsRunner]

Not sure bout ya’ll but I’m ready for some regularly scheduled PNW programming for 2-3 weeks; good ol chilly showers with some dry days mixed in. The last week has put more grays into my beard than the last 5 years combined  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Wow! Torchy!