January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[snow_wizard]

Kind of an interesting look to the 850 map on the ECMWF at day 9 tonight.  It shows us being clipped by the eastern edge of a blob of very cold air dropping down off the coast.  Very impressive anoms with that airmass for it being maritime polar.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Yay?

It's all about preserving as much of the cold month to date anom as possible right now.

[snow_wizard]

The early Feb cool down looks pretty solid right now, but I am not looking forward to the 3 day torch before that.  Just plain ugly.

[snow_wizard]

The Graph Cast shows the air mass cold enough for snow over Seattle in early Feb.  That blueish color is -8 on the 850s.  It shows that trough digging in pretty good for a few days.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The Graph Cast shows the air mass cold enough for snow over Seattle in early Feb.  That blueish color is -8 on the 850s.  It shows that trough digging in pretty good for a few days.

Convergence zone snow special

[TigerWoodsLibido]

47F and rainy. The recovery has been slow but steady and the kiddo finally gets to go back to school here today and our garbage service will finally resume on Thursday. Still a lot of nasty downed trees and areas of town still don’t have power. The local doctor’s office that I was supposed to have an appointment at is without power and is closed so my appointment has to be moved.

Hopefully we will get some snow instead of ice next time. Regardless, this will be a very memorable event here for much of the SE Willamette Valley. Creswell, Dexter-Lowell and Cottage Grove all had horrible damage done that will take months to completely recover from.

But each day gets a little better. I wish I could say the same for my epilepsy.

[SpaceRace22]

Some of today's model runs are getting downright scary for much of BC with all this rain. Every recent run of the GFS is showing 15-30" of rain in ~3 days for most of Vancouver Island. The 00z Canadian's solution is even worse, with a legitimately catastrophic 43" of QPF shown for the maximum in the mountains.

Hopefully one of these atmospheric rivers ends up orienting itself a little further south or north, because if they just keep blasting the same part of BC literally nonstop for days, it could get super ugly.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Some of today's model runs are getting downright scary for much of BC with all this rain. Every recent run of the GFS is showing 15-30" of rain in ~3 days for most of Vancouver Island. The 00z Canadian's solution is even worse, with a legitimately catastrophic 43" of QPF shown for the maximum in the mountains.

Hopefully one of these atmospheric rivers ends up orienting itself a little further south or north, because if they just keep blasting the same part of BC literally nonstop for days, it could get super ugly.

From what I hear, they could use some rain. 

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

From what I hear, they could use some rain. 

Yeah but maybe not 3 month's worth in 3 days, lol.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Incoming big time. If you are driving into soon like me, drive safely. Standing water will be a big issue and you could hydroplane.

[Tyler Mode]

Nice quick hitting system. I could see the moon through the high clouds last night at 630 at the coast, and now the rain has stopped.

[Skagit Weather]

3 hours ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Some of today's model runs are getting downright scary for much of BC with all this rain. Every recent run of the GFS is showing 15-30" of rain in ~3 days for most of Vancouver Island. The 00z Canadian's solution is even worse, with a legitimately catastrophic 43" of QPF shown for the maximum in the mountains.

Hopefully one of these atmospheric rivers ends up orienting itself a little further south or north, because if they just keep blasting the same part of BC literally nonstop for days, it could get super ugly.

I don't think those extreme totals are actually that unusual for Vancouver Island. For example Tofino, on the west coast, averages 50 cm (almost 20") of rain in January. The euro is showing 15-20" for those locations which is certainly wet and would cause some flooding, but I don't think it would be apocalyptic. Some of the mountains on Vancouver Island pick up more than 500" of rain a year including more than 80" a month during their wettest months so once again while 30" is wet it's not unheard of. Now those totals with a snowpack in the coast range north of Vancouver could cause larger problems, but I'm less familiar with how atmospheric rivers impact that area.

Also the GEM always significantly overdoes precipitation so I would not take any totals it spits out at face value.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not much going on... Had some rain last night. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Skagit Weather said:

I don't think those extreme totals are actually that unusual for Vancouver Island. For example Tofino, on the west coast, averages 50 cm (almost 20") of rain in January. The euro is showing 15-20" for those locations which is certainly wet and would cause some flooding, but I don't think it would be apocalyptic. Some of the mountains on Vancouver Island pick up more than 500" of rain a year including more than 80" a month during their wettest months so once again while 30" is wet it's not unheard of. Now those totals with a snowpack in the coast range north of Vancouver could cause larger problems, but I'm less familiar with how atmospheric rivers impact that area.

Also the GEM always significantly overdoes precipitation so I would not take any totals it spits out at face value.

Good point about the GEM! I've noticed the EURO has had that issue recently too. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Getting yet more snow in Leavenworth.  Only a couple of inches, but it's been impressive how long the cold air has hung around.  Classic cold air damming.

This will put us at about 73" for the winter.  Only about 21" to go to reach normal for the winter season.  Not bad for a Nino.

[Cascadia_Wx]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not much going on... Had some rain last night. 

Did you catch my weather roundup last evening, Andrew? 

[MossMan]

30 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Getting yet more snow in Leavenworth.  Only a couple of inches, but it's been impressive how long the cold air has hung around.  Classic cold air damming.

This will put us at about 73" for the winter.  Only about 21" to go to reach normal for the winter season.  Not bad for a Nino.

Looks amazing right now! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

54 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I don't think those extreme totals are actually that unusual for Vancouver Island. For example Tofino, on the west coast, averages 50 cm (almost 20") of rain in January. The euro is showing 15-20" for those locations which is certainly wet and would cause some flooding, but I don't think it would be apocalyptic. Some of the mountains on Vancouver Island pick up more than 500" of rain a year including more than 80" a month during their wettest months so once again while 30" is wet it's not unheard of. Now those totals with a snowpack in the coast range north of Vancouver could cause larger problems, but I'm less familiar with how atmospheric rivers impact that area.

Also the GEM always significantly overdoes precipitation so I would not take any totals it spits out at face value.

500?

[Cascadia_Wx]

Not too bad. I’m surprised @SilverFallsAndrew isn’t all over this.

[westcoastexpat]

On 1/23/2024 at 1:19 AM, snow_wizard said:

This pattern just flat out sucks.  Absolutely no way to get any below normal days for the rest of the month now.  For a while it appeared we would get enough of a break to get a low level chill going mid week, but that ship has sailed now.

Right back to the nightmare pattern that has dominated almost every January this entire century so far.  At least we did get something worthwhile last week.

Do you think we will end up colder than Jan 2017?

[Slushy Inch]

Cliff Mass says El Niño is quickly dying and La Niña is coming. Let’s go!

[Skagit Weather]

12 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

500?

Yep, that's what PRISM estimates for the mountains just southeast of Tofino.

Here's the estimated monthly average precipitation for one of the wetter locations:

Jan: 1785 mm (70")
Feb: 1032 mm (41")
Mar: 1194 mm (47")
Apr: 826 mm (32")
May: 291 mm (11.5")
Jun: 265 mm (10.4")
Jul: 181 mm (7.1")
Aug: 316 mm (12.4")
Sep: 454 mm (17.9")
Oct: 1033 mm (41")
Nov: 1930 mm (76")
Dec: 1141 mm (45")

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Yep, that's what PRISM estimates for the mountains just southeast of Tofino.

Here's the estimated monthly average precipitation for one of the wetter locations:

Jan: 1785 mm (70")
Feb: 1032 mm (41")
Mar: 1194 mm (47")
Apr: 826 mm (32")
May: 291 mm (11.5")
Jun: 265 mm (10.4")
Jul: 181 mm (7.1")
Aug: 316 mm (12.4")
Sep: 454 mm (17.9")
Oct: 1033 mm (41")
Nov: 1930 mm (76")
Dec: 1141 mm (45")

500 INCHES OR CM? LOL

[Slushy Inch]

Gem looking better again. Chilly trough dropping down.

[Slushy Inch]

Score! Pscz snow!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Winter is still holding good east of the cascades. Leavenworth still looks nice.

[fubario]

56 degrees in Oly yesterday. My house abuts a green zone and there are a number of birds (have no idea what they are) that live there....sounded like Spring yesterday with, what i believe, are their "let's get it on!" serenades? lol 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Score! Pscz snow!

The zone almost never happens there. 

[Slushy Inch]

What a funky progression

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The zone almost never happens there. 

It’s a little south, but never happens there? Also I looked at wind it certainly is a pscz.

[Phishy Wx]

32 Freezing Fog

yard flooding with standing snow melt cause the ground is still frozen

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

It’s a little south, but never happens there? Also I looked at wind it certainly is a pscz.

In 30 years i have seen it happen 2 times like that.

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

In 30 years i have seen it happen 2 times like that.

It is an odd setup 

[Phishy Wx]

so its Sleeting in the backyard and raining in the front yard.  must be right on some boundary 

[LowerGarfield]

13 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

so its Sleeting in the backyard and raining in the front yard.  must be right on some boundary 

Yeah I had some sort of wierd mix last night. Bits of freezing in odd spots with temp above freezing, frost or ice coating on the sidewalk maybe light zr?

Almost all snow is gone except on north facing hills.

[Ken in Wood Village]

I know everyone is looking for snow but in the mean time, we have potentially a thunderstorm risk for our area today

[Skagit Weather]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

500 INCHES OR CM? LOL

If you sum up those months you’ll see it totals over 400 inches per year.

[LowerGarfield]

8 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I know everyone is looking for snow but in the mean time, we have potentially a thunderstorm risk for our area today

Can't wait to see your thunderstorm tracker posts. Those are always fun.

[snow_wizard]

The GEFS continues to trend colder for early February.  It's beginning to look like it will have some continental flavor now.  Hard to complain seeing this so soon after the big cold wave.  Just wish we could do something about the three day torch coming up.

[snow_wizard]

8 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

47F and rainy. The recovery has been slow but steady and the kiddo finally gets to go back to school here today and our garbage service will finally resume on Thursday. Still a lot of nasty downed trees and areas of town still don’t have power. The local doctor’s office that I was supposed to have an appointment at is without power and is closed so my appointment has to be moved.

Hopefully we will get some snow instead of ice next time. Regardless, this will be a very memorable event here for much of the SE Willamette Valley. Creswell, Dexter-Lowell and Cottage Grove all had horrible damage done that will take months to completely recover from.

But each day gets a little better. I wish I could say the same for my epilepsy.

Just amazing how bad it got down there.  Very good chance the next cold wave will have a more favorable outcome for you.