January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Successfully made it up South Sister today! Was pretty surprised by how far we could see today, we expected it to be more cloudy. Could see the other 2 sisters, 3 fingered Jack, mt jefferson, mt hood, and even mt adams all in one shot!

skiing conditions were awful, but atleast the Avalanche conditions were safe enough

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Mega El Nino doing mega Nino things. Not sure there's anything scary about it...

The mountains are kind of in a bad place right now.  Still time for that to be fixed of course.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

We'll see.  The subsurface has almost completely flipped now.  I'll never forget watching animation of the 1997-98 El Nino when it collapsed.  The transition was majestic.  The one last chunk of warm subsurface water under Nino 1+2 is presently being attacked by recuring waves of cold water.  It has eroded substantially over the last few weeks.  I'm leaning toward a crash, but not certain of it.

Looks like the 1997-98 Nino was much more intense and localized at this point in the year with colder water lurking just to the west.  

[Phil]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

50s and 60s in Montana with strong winds.  Talk about a month of GREAT extremes.  As awful as this is for some of us it is a sign we could well be in a 1930s type regime.  Great things happen when we're in this mode, but that comes with the price of seeing the other side of the coin at times.

Eww, the 1930s were one of the worst decades for weather.

Giant summer death ridge with barely any thunderstorm action, lots of dud winters, and spring dust storms even out here. Not to mention some of the worst hurricane strikes in US history.

I’d gladly repeat the 1940s though.

[bainbridgekid]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Its not cloud cover... clouds are pretty uniform across the area.   SE flow is keep it cooler at SEA while its been in the low to mid 60s in most places from I-90 northward.  

SEA being 55 at 2 PM is a mystery to me.  Especially after being 61 in the middle of the night. Normally they warm up just fine with SE flow. Can't think of a good meteorological explanation for them being 10 degrees cooler than Everett in a situation like this. It's cloudy up here too like you said.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Successfully made it up South Sister today! Was pretty surprised by how far we could see today, we expected it to be more cloudy. Could see the other 2 sisters, 3 fingered Jack, mt Jefferson, mt hood, and even mt adams!

skiing conditions were awful, but atleast the Avalanche conditions were safe enough

Just spectacular!

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Eww, the 1930s were one of the worst decades for weather.

Giant summer death ridge with barely any thunderstorm action, lots of dud winters, and spring dust storms even out here. Not to mention some of the worst hurricane strikes in US history.

I’d gladly repeat the 1940s though.

Out here it was a decade of great extremes with a number of great winters, and a couple of total duds.  The 1920s were very interesting as well.  The 1940s sucked balls until later in 1946.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

SEA being 55 at 2 PM is a mystery to me.  Especially after being 61 in the middle of the night. Normally they warm up just fine with SE flow. Can't think of a good meteorological explanation for them being 10 degrees cooler than Everett in a situation like this. It's cloudy up here too like you said.

I think it just illustrates how hard it is to mix everything in a warm air mass this time of year.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We'll see.  The subsurface has almost completely flipped now.  I'll never forget watching animation of the 1997-98 El Nino when it collapsed.  The transition was majestic.  The one last chunk of warm subsurface water under Nino 1+2 is presently being attacked by recuring waves of cold water.  It has eroded substantially over the last few weeks.  I'm leaning toward a crash, but not certain of it.

I don’t like the 1998 analog at all. So many structural differences. It’s been a good subseasonal analog, yes, but the lower frequency elements simply aren’t comparable.

If we’re going to flip to -ENSO it won’t happen the way it did in 1998 or 2007. Or any of the years that didn’t downwell westerly shear during the transition or already had the WP extension.

[Phishy Wx]

underperforming a hair today

 

48, forecast was supposed to be 52 IMBY

 

Headed to Philly in the morning. looks similar but cooler over there

[bainbridgekid]

Warm temps in exposed mountain areas today:
 

54 at Mt. Baker 4,200 ft

47 at Crystal Mountain 6,830 ft

55 at Paradise 5,400 ft

30 at Camp Muir 10,000 ft

But just 36 at Stevens and 38 at Snoqualmie. Fog saving the snowpack in the passes.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

16 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Successfully made it up South Sister today! Was pretty surprised by how far we could see today, we expected it to be more cloudy. Could see the other 2 sisters, 3 fingered Jack, mt jefferson, mt hood, and even mt adams all in one shot!

skiing conditions were awful, but atleast the Avalanche conditions were safe enough

Wow what was the elevation and temps?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Warm temps in exposed mountain areas today:
 

54 at Mt. Baker 4,200 ft

47 at Crystal Mountain 6,830 ft

55 at Paradise 5,400 ft

30 at Camp Muir 10,000 ft

But just 36 at Stevens and 38 at Snoqualmie. Fog saving the snowpack in the passes.

 

The 55 at paradise is nuts.

[Phil]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like the 1997-98 Nino was much more intense and localized at this point in the year with colder water lurking just to the west.  

Correct, a very different spatiotemporal evolution in 1998 compared to this year. If we’re going to flip to La Niña, it will look different (and the general circulation pattern will be different as well).

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Correct, a very different spatiotemporal evolution in 1998 compared to this year. If we’re going to flip to La Niña, it will look different (and the general circulation pattern will be different as well).

What if there is a new look we haven't seen yet?

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wow what was the elevation and temps?

At the summit 10358 FT, we observed 33 degrees at 9:30 AM! 10:20AM at the base of Lewis Glacier, 8800 ft, it was 43 degrees, and at 5400FT 11:50 AM where we parked our snowmobile, it was 54 degrees. A disgustingly warm day.

Luckily it doesn't need to be below freezing for snow to refreeze, so the last 2000ish ft of the climb was all frozen.

 

[Phil]

12 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

As an addendum, I don't think I've ever seen a stretch of weather so stormy for that section of the Pacific than the last decade or so. There have been some true tempests out there, many of which possessing strength rivaling that of the Columbus Day Storm.

It’s nice looking on satellite but there have been much sexier presentations than that.

6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

If this flops it's kind of a bummer.  This is our MJO 7 window to score.  Our last shot will probably be the final strat warming which could happen in early March or so.  We are due for a big March so who knows.

Climo for MJO phase-7 is niño-like during the second half of winter. That cold signal you refer to is confined to the first half of winter.

5 hours ago, iFred said:

Last nights chorus of frogs and this mornings summer tinge has brought back that “I need to work on the yard” primal urge. In our warming climate, the days of a 72° degree July day might be gone, so I’m rooting for overcast and 90° soup. Makes for some exciting weather.

Are you a masochist?

4 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

how is you guys daffodil situation looking like?

Ours started coming up in Dec just like in 2015, and were ~2” tall by the time they were buried in snow this month. When the snow melted 10 days later, they were 3” tall.

Their growth actually accelerated while buried under the snow with temperatures in the 10s and 20s. These fookers are invincible.  

I think the snow actually insulated them from the cold. Because in frigid/dry conditions exposed to wind they never seem to grow.

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

This winter might just be toast. At least we had a week of cold and a little snow. Next winter should be much better! Just odd to have total snow depths of 20” or greater for the last 6 or so seasons…And then to have a measly 3” this winter. 

That’s not normal either. A correction the other way was inevitable.

49 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

With the Nino about to flop we could pull off some late season magic up there.  It's possible it won't happen too.

It’s not “about to flop”. At least not within any timescale relevant to this winter. 

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What if there is a new look we haven't seen yet?

Sure, anything is possible. What kind of look do you have in mind?

[LowerGarfield]

Up to 57F now, aa bit cooler than yesterday though.

[T-Town]

57.4 here, my high for the day. Weird to see 60s in the central and north sound but mostly 50s in the south sound. 

[snow_wizard]

Something has suddenly shown up on the 10mb zonal wind forecast.  A bit of a dip in late February that did not show up on previous runs, except yesterday's to a lesser extent.  Actually a pretty substantial change.  Worth watching.

[snow_wizard]

I'm sticking with my call on the the Nino crashing pretty hard.  It should begin with a sudden cooling in Nino 1+2 due to upwelling along the Coast of South America in couple of weeks or maybe less.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Got up to 67 with a low of 29 today in Sunriver, last time we got to 60 or above was Halloween! 63 now, and the sun is unfortunately gone, it was an amazing few hours laying out in the sun and enjoying the mid 60s with a nice light breeze. It's a weird change from what I was out in earlier, low 30s and gusts in the 40s.

 

[DaneTrain]

Road Temperatures are Hot!!

[Cascadia_Wx]

PDX has really lucked out with this mild spell. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Back down to 57F and getting cloudy.

[TT-SEA]

All the people who live at PDX are thankful their home wasn't destroyed by a couple extra degrees of temperature.    All infrastructure remains intact and residents are safe.   Whew!   

[TT-SEA]

Yes... that was a light-hearted troll.    You would think they were just missed by a tornado or hurricane!  

[TT-SEA]

SEA had a high of 61 on the day... but an afternoon high of only 59.   Definitely interesting.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

At the summit 10358 FT, we observed 33 degrees at 9:30 AM! 10:20AM at the base of Lewis Glacier, 8800 ft, it was 43 degrees, and at 5400FT 11:50 AM where we parked our snowmobile, it was 54 degrees. A disgustingly warm day.

Luckily it doesn't need to be below freezing for snow to refreeze, so the last 2000ish ft of the climb was all frozen.

 

What route did you take?

[Meatyorologist]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA had a high of 61 on the day... but an afternoon high of only 59.   Definitely interesting.

Midnight highs are always more likely in the winter due to solar radiation being less of a factor.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

At the summit 10358 FT, we observed 33 degrees at 9:30 AM! 10:20AM at the base of Lewis Glacier, 8800 ft, it was 43 degrees, and at 5400FT 11:50 AM where we parked our snowmobile, it was 54 degrees. A disgustingly warm day.

Luckily it doesn't need to be below freezing for snow to refreeze, so the last 2000ish ft of the climb was all frozen.

 

Above freezing over 10,000ft is incredible. Especially at this time of year.

[snow_wizard]

I think we can stick a fork in the first trough now.  The second one still has potential for improvement.  Even at that the first trough will cool things sharply from where we're at now.

[snow_wizard]

52 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

PDX has really lucked out with this mild spell. 

There were a few pleasant surprises today.  Kind of a consolation for the cooling not looking as good now.

[snow_wizard]

This torch is as epic as the cold was a couple of weeks ago.  Everywhere from here to Minnesota is way above normal now.  The weather is going big right now.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA had a high of 61 on the day... but an afternoon high of only 59.   Definitely interesting.

Any idea how long it will take to repair the devastating damage?

[snow_wizard]

PDX looks pretty safe to average solidly below normal for January now.  Maybe it's a start to doing better in what should be our coldest month.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Any idea how long it will take to repair the devastating damage?

We were hit really hard out here in North Bend.   A 63-degree hellscape.   People are trying evacuate but its almost impossible at this point.   The only hope is that people can make it to the south sound where temps are 3 or 4 degrees cooler.  Prayers needed.

[Phishy Wx]

a set a reminder on my phone to let me know when it's November 15th so I can start paying attention again

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

a set a reminder on my phone to let me know when it's November 15th so I can start paying attention again

You really think nothing interesting will happen in Spokane from now through April?    I bet it snows again.