February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[MossMan]

Where did Phil go? 

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The HRDPS is a pretty good model... I think you are going to get buried while we maybe get an inch or two out here.  

Hrdps is really good with precip type. I would say at times it tends to be a little too generous with precip amounts of all types.  That seems to be a common theme with the Canadian based models though. 

[Deweydog]

45 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

2017 comparisons seem weird at least from a model perspective. Almost all models agreed on that having some sort of accumulating snow down here. You mostly have to hang your hat on the GFS right now for anything outside of a dusting.

 

@Deweydogrequesting your local mesoscale wizard glass visions.

Looks pretty lame outside of the valley floor splativerse. 

[ShawniganLake]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF

Old reliable Euro.  It’s barely changed the past 4-5 runs. Just small variations with the same general areas getting hit. 

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Where did Phil go? 

Traveling. Pitchers and catchers report TODAY!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

16 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

another thing, why isn't there a warning for the Olympics?? Not even advisory? euro shows well over 1 foot there.

They NEVER give us an advisory until we already have 6" on the ground. They assume no one lives out here

[SouthHillFrosty]

[bainbridgekid]

Drier air working its way closer from both the East and North. Current DP's:

Bellingham: 17

North Bend: 17

Monroe: 23

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

4am tomorrow lock it in. That is shockingly widespread.

[Phishy Wx]

19 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Where did Phil go? 

Skiing at Stevens Pass

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

4am tomorrow lock it in. That is shockingly widespread.

Starts around 10pm. We should know within 12 hours.........

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

13 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Old reliable Euro.  It’s barely changed the past 4-5 runs. Just small variations with the same general areas getting hit. 

It moved bulk of precip south it looks like or just a weaker storm. This is less snow shown here than the last 4 runs but could just be a wobble.

[snow_wizard]

I'm going with a trace to 1 inch east of Puget Sound and 4 to 6 inches for the Kitsap Pen / Hood Canal.  The ECMWF has an acceptable temperature profile for the EPSL late tonight, but moisture is so limited.

The late month / early March thing is certainly growing some legs at this point.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Starts around 10pm. We should know within 12 hours.........

Has me solidly in the snow zone.  We'll see.

[Deweydog]

Breezy!

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Has me solidly in the snow zone.  We'll see.

Blotches of 32 degree if I was at the nws  I would put out an elevation based winter weather advisory.

[snow_wizard]

27 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Hrdps is really good with precip type. I would say at times it tends to be a little too generous with precip amounts of all types.  That seems to be a common theme with the Canadian based models though. 

Your avatar pic is nauseating. 

[snow_wizard]

34 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Sure Hoquiam will break there all time snow record lol. 

In all seriousness this looks good for them.

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Your avatar pic is nauseating. 

Haha. Thank you.   

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It moved bulk of precip south it looks like or just a weaker storm. This is less snow shown here than the last 4 runs but could just be a wobble.

Yea but still really just small fluctuations overall.  Some other models were varying by hundreds of miles with the track of the low from one run to the next.  

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Haha. Thank you.   

LOVE IT!

[Slushy Inch]

High res uw gfs model quick with precip and starts mixed? Doubt it. This models got a screw loose.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Nice to see the GEFS considerably cooler than the operational in the mid to long range.

[Slushy Inch]

Won’t complain if this verifies.

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

LOVE IT!

Haha. Hilarious how bent out of shape people get about a tree. 

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

High res uw gfs model quick with precip and starts mixed? Doubt it. This models got a screw loose.

What are you doubting. Timing or mixed precip?

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

What are you doubting. Timing or mixed precip?

Both

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

What are you doubting. Timing or mixed precip?

Composite radar is always going to show way more coverage than reality.   Lots of that will be virga or very light precip in the EPSL.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Composite radar is always going to show way more coverage than reality.   Lots of that will be virga or very light precip in the EPSL.

Why is that?

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Why is that?

In model land it is the max reflectivity over the vertical column. 

In radar land, it's usually some sort of weighted max which means if there is a higher reflectivity at elevation (like from the 1.5 or 3 degree tilts), that will be reflected in the composite product. 

[Canadian guy]

Been having some on and off very light mixed rain/snow/graupel showers this morning here in Victoria. Also at times some gusty outflow winds which feels nice. 

[ShawniganLake]

7 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Both

It’s going to start as rain or mixed precip most places, isn’t it?

[FroYoBro]

1 hour ago, OysterPrintout said:

2017 comparisons seem weird at least from a model perspective. Almost all models agreed on that having some sort of accumulating snow down here. You mostly have to hang your hat on the GFS right now for anything outside of a dusting.

 

@Deweydogrequesting your local mesoscale wizard glass visions.

Portland NWS is just straight up bad at forecasting close call winter events in the lowlands. It’s embarrassing. 

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, Canadian guy said:

Been having some on and off very light mixed rain/snow/graupel showers this morning here in Victoria. Also at times some gusty outflow winds which feels nice. 

Yea, we had a light dusting this morning. Radar looks more moist than what has actually managed to reach the ground. 

[MossMan]

20 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Won’t complain if this verifies.

I’m in the Pepto! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

It’s going to start as rain or mixed precip most places, isn’t it?

I wouldn't be surprised if it started as rain even at my area, it just isn't cold today, when precip arrives it might be 36-38 degrees.

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I wouldn't be surprised if it started as rain even at my area, it just isn't cold today, when precip arrives it might be 36-38 degrees.

Was just thinking this.... Currently 50 degrees over here yet we are talking about snow chances in less than 12 hours with a weak system... wild

[the_convergence_zone]

This case is a classic example of why Seattle is in a geographically unfavorable position for accumulating snow. You need some evaporative cooling, but not too much or all of the precipitation evaporates. And you need dry air coming through the mountain passes, but when temperatures are marginal the downslope warming can turn everything to rain. Not to mention being surrounded by warm water which even at this time of year is enough to bump the snow level up by a few hundred feet. 

So what should be a slam dunk snow event gets completely thwarted by terrain effects. 

But then the Olympic Mountains act the opposite -- both terrain-induced blocking on the windward side allowing the cold air to stick around longer in the Hoquiam area and the Kitsap upsloping effect. 

Crazy stuff. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Was just thinking this.... Currently 50 degrees over here yet we are talking about snow chances in less than 12 hours with a weak system... wild

dew point will be in the 20's through the column . It will switch to snow most places after about 30 minutes.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, the_convergence_zone said:

This case is a classic example of why Seattle is in a geographically unfavorable position for accumulating snow. You need some evaporative cooling, but not too much or all of the precipitation evaporates. And you need dry air coming through the mountain passes, but when temperatures are marginal the downslope warming can turn everything to rain. Not to mention being surrounded by warm water which even at this time of year is enough to bump the snow level up by a few hundred feet. 

So what should be a slam dunk snow event gets completely thwarted by terrain effects. 

But then the Olympic Mountains act the opposite -- both terrain-induced blocking on the windward side allowing the cold air to stick around longer in the Hoquiam area and the Kitsap upsloping effect. 

Crazy stuff. 

Yep this is a classic Hood canal event, also these tend to warm much slower than predicted. Probable will stay snow out here for the entire event into friday.