February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Anti Marine Layer]

21 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

For WA I don't see what was so great about the GFS and GEM less mountain snow and less lowland snow.

Lots of people are hoping for you to come to them.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Terrain bleed for the foothill locales. 

Looks like sub 528 thickness much of the time which equals snow here. Probably sticking at night, melting during the day. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

BOOM

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

BOOM

Haven’t seen this model since January!

[MossMan]

39 degree moon. 

[Slushy Inch]

10 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

BOOM

Pscz nails me! I think models are probably undergoing strength.

[Meatyorologist]

28 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

BOOM

Absolutely crushes me. I think it read my PSCZ post.

[TT-SEA]

43 minutes ago, Snowlova said:

This reminds me of our latest event just a couple weeks ago or less though. It kinda overplayed the snow for places especially east if I remember correctly while the pessimistic mesoscale models did much better showing zilch east of puget sound

That was a entirely different set up with strong offshore flow.    That won't be an issue time.

[Meatyorologist]

A true 34F rocking here. Probably lightning too with that setup.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

A true 34F rocking here. Probably lightning too with that setup.

God bless

[Cold Snap]

25 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Pscz nails me! I think models are probably undergoing strength.

UKMET shows 8-10” IMBY. Wow!

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

A true 34F rocking here. Probably lightning too with that setup.

That from the ukmet model?

[Snowlova]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That was an entirely different set up with strong offshore flow.    That won't be an issue time.

Very true. Convective snow chances that models usually underdo is a whole different ballgame

[the_convergence_zone]

UW-WRF still not a fan but better than 12Z in most areas. Tomorrow the WRF ensemble will be in range. Agreed that the models are likely underdoing the CZ potential. 

[Slushy Inch]

Nice euro run for western WA. MossMan bullseye once again.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

UW-WRF still not a fan but better than 12Z in most areas. Tomorrow the WRF ensemble will be in range. Agreed that the models are likely underdoing the CZ potential. 

2k snow levels 

[snow_wizard]

The snow is still there for this area Monday evening.  At least it looks like a decent chance here.  Nice to see early Tuesday morning a lot colder than the 12z.

[the_convergence_zone]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

2k snow levels 

Do you see anything more than a few tenths below 2K anywhere on that map? Except in areas that may see a CZ? 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The snow is still there for this area Monday evening.  At least it looks like a decent chance here.  Nice to see early Tuesday morning a lot colder than the 12z.

There's so many chances of snow over here the next ten days it's hard to keep track. Will be wet 33 or 34 degree snow 

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Nice euro run for western WA. MossMan bullseye once again.

The real shocker is the snow it shows here.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

There's so many chances of snow over here the next ten days it's hard to keep track. Will be wet 33 or 34 degree snow 

The best chance for any higher quality snow will be Monday evening with the low 925mb temps.

[snow_wizard]

Right now NW Snohomish County and SW King County look like the better bets.  Kind of a strange combo.

[snow_wizard]

Definitely liking this.

[RCola]

A compromise between Euro and UKMET would put Seattle in the mix for at least some snow in the air. Something to keep an eye on, but I wouldn't get hopes up just yet. It's difficult (though not impossible) to get the PSCZ to establish near the city.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Big eastward shift with the second trough.  Should mean a colder outcome if correct.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Big eastward shift with the second trough.  Should mean a colder outcome if correct.

Big trend that way tonight.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Big eastward shift with the second trough.  Should mean a colder outcome if correct.

Saw that

[snow_wizard]

Good lord!  Run to run change vs the 12z.

[snow_wizard]

Wow!

24 hour Kuchera total about a week out.

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow!

24 hour Kuchera total about a week out.

Not going to be happy if I’m in the snow hole again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Orgasmic 

[RCola]

8 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Not going to be happy if I’m in the snow hole again.

You'll be in good company though

[snow_wizard]

Brrrr.  This run gets really good!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Incredible euro run. 

[snow_wizard]

A lot of places do really well on this run.  The Kuchera is good too.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Incredible euro run. 

We are in agreement here!  I'll be dammed if my area doesn't get multiple snowfalls.  WTF?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

A lot of places do really well on this run.  The Kuchera is good too.

Hard to even look at these when it shoes 2 feet at forks. Just silly

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We are in agreement here!  I'll be dammed if my area doesn't get multiple snowfalls.  WTF?

Lock it!

[snow_wizard]

More lowland snow and quite cold to finish off the run.  925s drop to -4 at hour 228.  Noice!

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Hard to even look at these when it shoes 2 feet at forks. Just silly

The run is fantastic at the 500mb level.  FWIW the snowiest month on record for Forks was March 1951.  At least it was earlier in the century, not totally sure now.