February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[snow_wizard]

The "coarser" version of the NMB is much like the 12km NAM.  It will be interesting to see how this works out.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Terrain bleed is a thing. My money is on actual amounts being closer to what NAM 3km models.

So just throw out the ECMWF?  Got it.

I'm getting sick of this "terrain bleed" terminology also.  This is a case of c-zone placement.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The "coarser" version of the NMB is much like the 12km NAM.  It will be interesting to see how this works out.

Outliers have a larger impact on the mean.

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

3km is a lot more stingy unfortunately.

Not bad! 

[snow_wizard]

At any rate....we will see soon enough.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

So just throw out the ECMWF?  Got it.

Sometimes, yes, when the snowfall map it cranks out has that terrain bleed-y look to it. Which it sure does this time up in my neck of the woods.

If Vancouver got as much snow as the Euro modelled, we would rival Spokane in the yearly snowfall department.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Outliers have a larger impact on the mean.

Not sure why everyone is so eager to throw out the top models on this one.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Not bad! 

Yeah, you’re gonna score with this one.

[Randyc321]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks beautiful. 

@SilverFallsAndrew

Here’s the two that live in that pen.  They’re comical sometimes. 
The alpaca is Blue and the llama’s names is Soul Sister. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Sometimes, yes, when the snowfall map it cranks out has that terrain bleed-y look to it. Which it sure does this time up in my neck of the woods.

If Vancouver got as much snow as the Euro modelled, we would rival Spokane in the yearly snowfall department.

In this case...you have a great point.

Tomorrow night is c-zone dependent.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

So just throw out the ECMWF?  Got it.

I'm getting sick of this "terrain bleed" terminology also.  This is a case of c-zone placement.

Euro hasn’t been good with snow in marginal events 

[Weiner Warrior]

Just dropped 8 degrees in 10 minutes

[snow_wizard]

Very obvious why the 3km NAM is so dry tomorrow evening.  The SW wind just keeps cranking in King County.  The operational models show that will not be the case.  I'm betting the wind shift shown by the GFS and ECMWF will happen and precip will fall over King County.  Beyond that we'll have to wait and see.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Euro hasn’t been good with snow in marginal events 

This isn't a precip type situation though.  These higher res models are just plain dry.  Not buying it.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Not bad! 

Not good

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not sure why everyone is so eager to throw out the top models on this one.

I don’t see the same agreement. Even if I did it’s a pscz, models are crap at forecasting it so I wouldn’t get my hopes up.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Not good

What’s your yearly snowfall?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

I don’t see the same agreement. Even if I did it’s a pscz, models are crap at forecasting it so I wouldn’t get my hopes up.

Geeze.  I might as well just throw in the towel then.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

39 minutes ago, MWG said:

Amen! As a Puerto Rican I'm more of a baseball fan and it is indeed depressing lol. 

I still can't believe my favorite team, the Rangers, managed to win it all. They were so cursed before that. Maybe the Mariners will break theirs next.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

In this case...you have a great point.

Tomorrow night is c-zone dependent.

Sure, but the CZ is a mesoscale feature and the highest res mesoscale model does not show it materializing in YBY, which is worrying. Now, if it changes its tune, or if the HRDPS concurs with the Euro when it gets in range, then I would get excited for you.

[Weiner Warrior]

Goodluck weiners for everyone tonight

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Geeze.  I might as well just throw in the towel then.

Believe whatever you want ! But posting different model maps and our opinions on what’s going to happen is what we’re supposed to do here, right?? Isn’t that what you are doing? 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 hour ago, SnowWillarrive said:

He was joking 

On a side note I always thought Mount Daniel would be an awesome location for a ski resort. It would probably rival Whistler for a top ski destination in North America if developed. Much higher elevation than the pass and dryer snow. Glad it ain’t happening but fun to think about.

 

I don't think the terrain there would very good for a ski resort. East bowl from the summit might be okay but as you get lower the terrain is too steep for most skiers. The terrain to the north of Waptus lake might also be okay, but I'd hardly consider that part of Mount Daniel.

 

 

[Meatyorologist]

The 3km NAM is the driest mesoscale model by far. It doesn't believe in stratoform precipitation at all, which makes it useless during the winter and pretty bad for stalled convection/latent heat machines such as PSCZ's.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

37 and snowing.

[Meatyorologist]

This is pretty raw for the Pacific Ocean, at a latitude matching California, with outflow coming from the Aleutians instead of the continent.

[FroYoBro]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

37 and snowing.

That was quick.

[DeepFriedEgg]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

This is pretty raw for the Pacific Ocean, at a latitude matching California, with outflow coming from the Aleutians instead of the continent.

Yeah, too bad the trough didn't dig more favorably with stronger block support. A lot of frigid air in Alaska.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

36. Snowing harder.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 hour ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

HR3 is the only believer in snow for me tonight.

Looks like it was right!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

35. Flurries. 30-40 mph gusts. Nothing sticking. 

[MossMan]

Sound up! I love the wind! 

[Requiem]

38 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Yeah, too bad the trough didn't dig more favorably with stronger block support. A lot of frigid air in Alaska.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

In the TTT department, Osoyoos and Penticton both got blessed with some February 60-burgers this afternoon.

[FroYoBro]

I’m rooting for the Medford-Ashland area! And Eugene-Springfield! 

Edited February 26 by FroYoBro

[RentonHill]

11 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

In the TTT department, Osoyoos and Penticton both got blessed with some February 60-burgers this afternoon.

Omak beat their daily record by 4

[OysterPrintout]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I actually watched a Winterhawks game the other day. Nothing better to do I guess. They were playing Seattle, interesting they still have their WHL team even with the Kraken. 

Winterhawks are fun watch in person. Really good team this year, like most years. Also I like going to Memorial Coliseum, kind of cool to be in an old school stadium, you don't see many of those anymore. Plus you get to see some teenagers throw down. Too bad concessions are preposterously expensive.

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, MWG said:

Amen! As a Puerto Rican I'm more of a baseball fan and it is indeed depressing lol. 

That 2017 WBC was incredible. Who is your favorite team? Or do you mainly cheer for Team PR?

The sustained winds seem far weaker than they were during the last one in January when I was afraid one of my south facing windows would be blown out.

[FroYoBro]

Next weekend looks very chilly for the first week of March. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The door is open just about all week except for a 24hr period or so. We will be cold enough, especially at night. Even on a 37 degree day it can snow because the upper levels will be really cold.

Port Angeles guy is reporting snow this evening,  his temp is 37.