gosaints Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Nam a bit of an outlier now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 18z GFS shifted way west now...snows in E IA now. Bud & EastDubzz are going to be clickin' their heals... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Very ugly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 18z GFS Precip...remember, these runs don't have balloon network data so some wobbling.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Hi Guys, looking forward to contributing to the board. I live in Geneva, IL. I like the set up for Saturday think there will be a good swath of 3-5 inches in NE-IL. Welcome to the board Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 18z GFS Precip...remember, these runs don't have balloon network data so some wobbling.... I suspect the 0z runs to shift back east. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 I suspect the 0z runs to shift back east. GFS much weaker and south. NAM gonna win again? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 This is such a narrow band of snow that if you get under it, consider yourself lucky! LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Nam very well could but the gfs does have support from ukie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Snow this afternoon is doing nothing but wetting the ground. Little snow stuck on the trees, but that's it. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Nam very well could but the gfs does have support from ukie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Anything is on the table. Hate the drying trend though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 18z GFS shifted way west now...snows in E IA now. Bud & EastDubzz are going to be clickin' their heals...It could be a win-win situation for me this weekend. I'm in South Beloit this weekend, so if it's further east i would see more snow, and if it's further west it's better for the snow pack back home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 LOT has put an opening number in my grid. 3-5" Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 WOW...I ended up with 2.5 inches and still snowing likely. Where did this come from??..Forecasters were forecasting snowshowers today with no accumulations. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Point & Click also 3-5" here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 WGN model average 4 inches N IL/S WI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meichel Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 My point/click at 3-5". Quote On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lot/ifps/TotalSnow/TotalSnow_Fcst.png Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Nice map, looks like its showing some LehS for eastern Cook/Lake county... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Yeah but if GFS wins will lucky to get 1-2 inches here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Uk, GGEM, and now GFS all would bring accumulating snow to eastern Iowa. DVN had a nice write up about the storm and talking about a SW trend with the track. SAT-SAT NGT... CLIPPER SYSTEM TO PASS QUICKLY ACROSS THEREGION DURING THE DAY. ENERGY CENTER ITSELF IN GULF OFALASKA THIS AFTN AND VISUALLY APPEARS STRONGER THAN MOSTMODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH SEEMS MAY BE DAMPENING ENERGY TOO MUCHPER SATL IMAGERY. STRENGTH TO HAVE RAMIFICATIONS ON TRACKAND LOCATION OF AMOUNTS AS STRONGER SYSTEM TO DIG FURTHERSOUTHWEST. GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH TRACK OF SYSTEMPER MODEL RUN TO RUN COMPARISON...WITH SLIGHT SOUTHWESTSHIFT NOTED WITH 12Z RUN TO WHERE SFC LOW TRACK INTO NORTHEASTIA MIDDAY CLOSE TO 12Z 12 MEMBER ENSEMBLE WHICH IS FAIRLYCLUSTERED AROUND KDBQ-KCWI ON SURFACE LOW AT 18Z SAT. OFINTEREST IS PREVIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS HAD SOME MEMBERS WITHLOW INTO WI BUT NOT ANYMORE WITH 12Z RUN... WHICH SUGGESTIVEOF ANY DELTA TO TRACK WOULD BE FURTHER SOUTHWEST ALSOSUPPORTED BY SATL TRENDS. ALSO OF INTEREST IS THE HI-RESECMWF WHICH WENT NORTHEAST WITH TRACK PAST FEW RUNS HAS COMEBACK SOUTHWEST BY FEW HUNDRED MILES SUGGESTING ON TO THEIDEA OF MORE SOUTHWEST TRACK AND HAVE TO THINK POTENTIAL ISTHERE FOR SYSTEM TO PASS CLOSE QUAD CITIES AND POSSIBLY TOTHE SOUTHWEST. HAVE BEGUN SOUTHWEST SHIFT WITH EXPANSION ANDINCREASE IN POPS TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL ON SATURDAY FROMQUAD CITIES N/E. WHY IS TRACK SO CRITICAL IS BECAUSE THE BULKOF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG AND ESPECIALLY TO THELEFT OF THE TRACK. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS... HAVE DOWNPLAYED THEAMERICAN MODELS AND UKMET SHOWING AROUND 0.25 INCH OF QPF ASMODEL LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOWN TO BE AROUND THAT TOCLOSE TO 0.3 INCH... AWFULLY DARN EFFICIENT! I PREFER ABOUT70-80 PERCENT OF THAT BASED ON FORCING AND SPEED OF SYSTEM WHICHEQUATES TO ROUGHLY 0.15-0.17 MAX QPF. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOSCOULD BE RATHER HIGH FOR A TIME AT AROUND 18-20:1 WITH POTENTIALOF DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE BUT OVERALL MOSTLY IN RANGE OF14-16:1... THUS BASED ON QPF EQUATES TO GENERALLY 1-3 INCH ACCUMS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Somehow managed 0.5" today.More snow moving into the area. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownWeather Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Radar just lit up in northeast IL. Snowing at a moderate to heavy pace with large flakes. Real nice to see a fresh coating snow finally on the streets and driveways 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 SN currently here. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Radar just lit up in northeast IL. Snowing at a moderate to heavy pace with large flakes. Real nice to see a fresh coating snow finally on the streets and driveways Same here. Snowing pretty nicely. A good coating so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Nice Fat flakes with this surprise band in NE IL...certainly whitened up the scene and roads while I was driving. Getting slick out there, temps crashing now in the mid 20's. Probably going to end up with 0.5-0.75" right about what the models were forecasting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Kenohsa/Racine, WI probably gonna get a inch with that heavy band moving in north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Impressive circulation with this Alberta Clipper. Solid embedded bands of heavy whip lash snow across Lakes/Ohio Valley atm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 One of my favorite synoptic rules I've learned...If a storm comes in stronger it will veer to its left. The past storm is a perfect example. The low was forecasted near the WI/IL border, ended up 75-100 miles north, and dropped a foot of snow, not 5-8"....Actually DVN is saying if the system ends up being stronger it will go more SW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Actually DVN is saying if the system ends up being stronger it will go more SW.West is to the left. Lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 West is to the left. Lol.0Z NAM way SW and a complete whiff for NE IL. Looks like the Iowa people may get their wish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Managed 0.7" with this system. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 00z NAM precip...nice thin strip of .30qpf... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 NAM shafts MKE/ORD but does have a nice stripe of 3-5 inches from La Cross to Peoria, IL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Pretty heavy 3hr period of snow pounds SE MN/W IL.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Looks like the new data suggests a weaker system. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Anyone from E IA to NE IL is still in the game...its such a thin stripe of accumulating snow that a 50 mile shift either way is still possible 36hours out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Whenever a clipper is coming through, you have to remember that it's a clipper. They typically aren't the biggest snow makers ever. You really have to wait until the day before to get a realistic view on the amounts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 West is to the left. Lol.not when its heading to the SE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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