March 2024 Observations and Discussion

[Timmy Supercell]

Some of the Slight and Marginal areas were extended further east. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Indiana is gonna get nailed.

[Timmy Supercell]

Looks like there's some HP supercell south of Cincinnati? No confirmation yet of it dropping a tornado, but its got some kind of nasty hail core. 

[CentralNebWeather]

11 hours ago, Clinton said:

0z Euro with a beast of a storm on day 10.  I can't imagine the outrage that would occur if the GFS was showing this lol.

Still showing up today. Eric Snodgrass keeps saying he expects some type of a storm between the 23-26. Says it could be a late season snowstorm across the Central Plains along with possible severe weather. He’s mentioned this the past several videos. Nothing set in stone, just something to keep watching. 

[Clinton]

17 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Still showing up today. Eric Snodgrass keeps saying he expects some type of a storm between the 23-26. Says it could be a late season snowstorm across the Central Plains along with possible severe weather. He’s mentioned this the past several videos. Nothing set in stone, just something to keep watching. 

Lots of signs pointing to a cold end of the month and start to April.  The vegetation will be in trouble around here as trees are leafing out about 4 to 5 weeks early.

[hawkstwelve]

I'll be flying out to Seattle for work on 3/25 and coming back 3/29 so you can pretty safely bet there will be a large March snowstorm that will hit some time during that week. Heck, maybe even a couple. That's usually how it works for me.

[hawkstwelve]

I mean, come on...

[Andie]

We’re under severe weather watch. Spring is officially here.  
68* Overcast. 

 

[james1976]

At this point I really hope we don't get any more snow. We hardly had a winter and I'm ready for actual spring. Now watch we'll prolly have a cold and snowy April lol.

[Hawkeye]

I got an ok 0.45" of rain from this system.  I'm looking forward to storm season so we can get some heavier rain.

I will have to cover a few budding shrubs early to mid next week.

[Andie]

We should have some very noisy thunderstorms beginning between -1-2 am through about 4-5. 
Alarm goes off at 5:15.   Oh well. 

[Hoosier]

13 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Indiana is gonna get nailed.

Indeed

Some bad news coming out of eastern IN, around Winchester.

[westMJim]

New record rainfall amount at GRR. The official rainfall of 0.81” set a new rainfall record at Grand Rapids. Here in MBY I recorded less with just 0.59” for the event and 0.53” from 7AM to 7 AM. The is one issue I have with cocorahs is the times recording rainfall.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 58/43 a record rainfall amount of 0.81” there was no snowfall and no sunshine. The highest wind gust was 41 MPH out of the NE. For today the average H/L is 44/27 the record high of 75 was set in 1990 the record low of 5 was set in 1897. The record rainfall of 1.31” was set in 1943 the record snowfall of 5.2” was in 1912. The most on the ground was 11” in 1904. Last year the H/L was 44/16.

[westMJim]

Some weather history for southern Lower Michigan.

1912: Cold and snow continue during a very wintry month. Lansing sets a daily snowfall record with 11.5 inches and Grand Rapids with 5.2 inches. Lansing falls to one degree below zero the next morning.

1990: Four days of record warmth culminate with highs of 77 degrees at Lansing, 75 at Grand Rapids and 72 at Muskegon.

 1990, the temperature rose to 77 degrees in Detroit, a record high for the day at the time. This marked the fourth day in a row (March 12-15) that record daily highs were set.

 2012, thunderstorms produced three rare early-season tornadoes. An EF0 caused minor damage in the town of Ida in Monroe County. In Lapeer County, trees were uprooted and a home was moved off of its foundation when an EF2 struck on the same evening. The most destructive tornado, an EF3, struck the town of Dexter with winds estimated between 135-140 mph, causing extensive structural damage and destroying multiple homes. Of the 13 March tornadoes ever recorded in SE Michigan, 4 of them occurred in March 2012.

Across the USA

1938, A tornado hit McPaul, Iowa, while moving from southeast to northwest. Another tornado raced through Batesville, Illinois, at 60 to 65 mph. Another tornado causing F4 damage killed 10 and injured 12 in St. Clair County, Missouri. This tornado was part of an outbreak that produced four different tornadoes and was responsible for 11 deaths and 42 injuries.

2004,  Brownsville, Texas, breaks a century-old record for the most significant daily rainfall accumulation for March with 3.23 inches.

[Timmy Supercell]

Nice storm early this morning, I started seeing flashing to my north before going to bed, had to get some sleep though.

The squall hit me around 2am, lightning every 10-15 seconds, and a little outflow wind at the beginning of it. Other than 1 or 2 power bumps, we kept our electricity over here.

I heard a few areas had tornadoes but compared to the late February outbreak, I think this was mostly large hail in areas. But there sure were a good number of individually tornado warned cells with these last night. 

[Clinton]

12 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

I mean, come on...

0z Euro and Control going big also so it must be true lol

[MinnesotaSnow]

Rain or snow, it doesn’t matter just give Minnesota precipitation please. Wetlands, lakes, ponds, and rivers are dropping at the time of year they usually rise the quickest. 

[Clinton]

Ensembles showing the weather becoming interesting around the 22nd.  The part of the pattern that produced our 2 weeks of winter in January would be set to return at the very end of the month into April.

 

 

[Andie]

Local Met is giving North Texas a 70% chance of rain.  
Overcast this morning 58.*
High today 68*
Do we need rain, or what? 

[OKwx2k4]

It appears ol March is trying to go out with a roar around here. 

Looking like it won't be the last round of storms on my side of the state for the month. Northwest Arkansas got rocked and lot of power outages were reported.

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, Andie said:

Local Met is giving North Texas a 70% chance of rain.  
Overcast this morning 58.*
High today 68*
Do we need rain, or what? 

If we go back to a disconfigured La Niña structure like 2022, you may be thankful for any rain you get in before summer. 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[Andie]

4 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

If we go back to a disconfigured La Niña structure like 2022, you may be thankful for any rain you get in before summer. 

I hope we aren’t headed for drought.  It gets old real fast. 
Thoughts?

We just had a nice thunderstorm. I’ll check the rain gauge later.  Really great to hear thunder and get rain !  

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Euro. Couldn’t ask for a better set up in my area for a storm. Specifics aren’t that important right now. Just that potentially much needed moisture coming in some form. Eric Snodgrass video spells it out in great detail. 

[Hoosier]

Winchester, IN tornado was rated preliminary EF-3.

Based on pictures, which yes can sometimes be misleading, there was definitely some damage that appeared to be EF-3 to EF-4.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 53/31 there was no rain/snow fall the sun was out 98% of the time. For today the average H/L is 53/31 the record high of 79 was set in 1990 the record low of 3 was set in 1900. The most rainfall of 1.50” fell in 1942. The most snowfall of 10.0” fell in 1895. The most snow on the ground was 10” in 1904. Last year the H/L was 51/34 and there was 0.19” of rainfall. So far this year there has been 7.96” of precipitation that is a departure of +2.21” This winter season so far has had only 40.5” of snowfall that is a departure of -32.8”

 

[Minny_Weather]

@hawkstwelveHope you're ready for your 42" storm, according to GFS.

[Tom]

This has been a fun storm to track out here in the 4 corners region of the U.S.  This potent closed low has been putting on a show out here.  Just a few days ago, the mets weren't impressed but that changed on Friday as we got hit with rounds of some thundery storms.  The mountains got hit pretty good with some White Gold.  We will take all the precip we can get from Mother Nature.  Skies have cleared and temps have dropped into the mid 40's.  Pretty chilly I'd say.  It appears this closed low will be pretty much stationary over Arizona today, tomorrow, Monday and into Tuesday!  That's incredible.  I don't think I've ever experienced a wx pattern like that before where an ULL just sits and spins right overhead.  This has been one of the LRC's signature patterns..."The Omega Block"...High over Low...quite fascinating to say the least.

We may have the cutoff trough spin for 6 consecutive days overhead...looking into the warmer months ahead, I can foresee troughs being cutoff across the heartland this summer with all the blocking being forecasted in the modeling that I'm seeing.

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Quite the active Severe Wx across the MW and OHV the past few days...

 

[Madtown]

Looks like winter is finally showing up....20-30" by next Wed? Lakes are all open its time for boats

[Minny_Weather]

Lincoln gets 30" from the next weekend storm on this latest GFS run!!

[Hawkeye]

I sure would like to lock in the 12z op Euro.  It is extremely active, with a lot of widespread rain and storms, with a very strong storm beginning to wrap up at day ten.

[Minny_Weather]

Well this would be a legit blizzard for me if it played out. 

[hawkstwelve]

EPS mean continues to increase.

[Minny_Weather]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

EPS mean continues to increase.

This might be the first time that I've actually been looking forward to how a weather pattern plays out this year. At the very least, most of the state of Minnesota should see the drought get eaten into quite a bit over the next 10 days.

[hawkstwelve]

Either the GFS is going to look like a fool (again) or it'll be right and we are looking at something potentially historic for some parts in the central CONUS and/or Midwest. 

Something tells me it's going to be the former but I will say, the accompanying 500mb pattern this time around has definitely piqued my interest. The jet streak is also looking particularly strong at the base of the trough. Those are things all ensembles agree upon, which gives the more outlandish solutions slightly more weight.

[OKwx2k4]

Well, the AO's heart is about to skip a beat....

 

Will be interesting to see how this month runs out now. 

A little cold slap in the face on its way out is looking likely. 

[Minny_Weather]

6 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Either the GFS is going to look like a fool (again) or it'll be right and we are looking at something potentially historic for some parts in the central CONUS and/or Midwest. 

Something tells me it's going to be the former but I will say, the accompanying 500mb pattern this time around has definitely piqued my interest. The jet streak is also looking particularly strong at the base of the trough. Those are things all ensembles agree upon, which gives the more outlandish solutions slightly more weight.

Operational GFS hasn't been in line with its own ensembles for this storm at all. That has happened a couple of times this season and both of those times it ended up being a complete idiot.

Maybe I'm just wishcasting (most ensemble members clobber me), but I don't think there's any way this storm digs as far south as the op GFS wants it to. Euro might actually win a storm this season for once.

[jaster220]

Happy St. Patrick's Day to all. There were grilled Reuben sandwiches for lunch Friday (on the house) in honor. Woke up to a dusting of fluffly LES making everything white again this morning. Went down to Rives Junction yesterday evening and it was still spring there with T-showers in the distance and green-up pretty noticeable about 40 miles south of Harrison. Bushes starting to get that green hue of early leaf-out. Have yet to see the early bulb flowers but I don't get into many places where I might see such tbh. Anyhow, have a great day whether you're Irish Catholic or not. I know it's the least desirable day of the week for the green beer drinking crowd. 

[Minny_Weather]

Just now, jaster220 said:

Happy St. Patrick's Day to all. There were grilled Reuben sandwiches for lunch Friday (on the house) in honor. Woke up to a dusting of fluffly LES making everything white again this morning. Went down to Rives Junction yesterday evening and it was still spring there with T-showers in the distance and green-up pretty noticeable about 40 miles south of Harrison. Bushes starting to get that green hue of early leaf-out. Have yet to see the early bulb flowers but I don't get into many places where I might see such tbh. Anyhow, have a great day whether you're Irish Catholic or not. I know it's the least desirable day of the week for the green beer drinking crowd. 

So much fun! We're doing a loaded potato bar at my work this week in honor.