March 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

4 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Now is the time to get those yellowjacket traps out! Every queen you catch now is hundreds less yellowjackets in late summer. 

KILL ALL YELLOWJACKETS!! Last summer was the worst summer I've ever seen in terms of yellow jackets, there were so many of them. August-early October you'd get swarmed by a billion yellow jackets on every hike, I got stung SIX TIMES in that period, it was TERRIBLE.

 

Yellow jackets must go EXTINCT!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I pulled off 23 in March 2019 and 25 the last two days on this cold snap.

In all fairness we had about 2 feet of snow on the ground in 2019 to help us. Of course we have about a foot still on the ground, but completely different airmass this time around. Chilly, but there isn't offshore flow with arctic air east of the Cascades this week. 

[MossMan]

Was 32.1 less than two hours ago, up to 37 now. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Today was gorgeous. Did an 8 mile run at a pretty good clip and didn’t break a sweat thanks to the nice temps in the mid 40s. A little rain this weekend will feel good before we get an extended dry period. 
 

This ridge doesn’t look too bad to me, it’s not in the right spot to really torch. 

00Z ECMWF might beg to differ.

 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Today was gorgeous. Did an 8 mile run at a pretty good clip and didn’t break a sweat thanks to the nice temps in the mid 40s. A little rain this weekend will feel good before we get an extended dry period. 
 

This ridge doesn’t look too bad to me, it’s not in the right spot to really torch. 

If the GFS is correct the mins could actually be below normal given the surface high position.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF might beg to differ.

I'm sure he meant the 0z GFS.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Was 32.1 less than two hours ago, up to 37 now. 

33.6 and still falling here.  Going to be a close call for a freezing min tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm sure he meant the 0z GFS.

I am sure.    But its appears to be an outlier.   GEFS looks similar to ECMWF. 

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm sure he meant the 0z GFS.

Oh yeah, rough Euro run. The 12Z EPS has me more optimistic that it would only be two really toasty days. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

In all fairness we had about 2 feet of snow on the ground in 2019 to help us. Of course we have about a foot still on the ground, but completely different airmass this time around. Chilly, but there isn't offshore flow with arctic air east of the Cascades this week. 

The snow on the ground and a solidly cold air mass worked well for you this time.  Dew points have been in the 20s during the day up here so that has really helped our cause.

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The Seattle city records show 81 on March 11, 1892.  The pre 1894 records aren't available online for some reason, but I have them.

Nice! Portland did 76 with that one.

From way back then March-April 1885 has always fascinated me as well. Probably the ridgiest stretch we've seen recorded here in the early spring. And also after a very cold winter. Between March 12 and April 10, Portland only had 0.01" of rain with an average maximum of 67 and what looked like blazing sunshine most of the time. That ridgy stretch lasted until early May and culminated in a 94 degree day on May 5, which gives it pretty good heat cred even by today's standards!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Oh yeah, rough Euro run. The 12Z EPS has me more optimistic that it would only be two really toasty days. 

ECMWF is really warm for sure.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Nice! Portland did 76 with that one.

From way back then March-April 1885 has always fascinated me as well. Probably the ridgiest stretch we've seen recorded here in the early spring. And also after a very cold winter. Between March 12 and April 10, Portland only had 0.01" of rain with an average maximum of 67 and what looked like blazing sunshine most of the time. That ridgy stretch lasted until early May and culminated in a 94 degree day on May 5, which gives it pretty good heat cred even by today's standards!

Fascinating stuff.    I suspect summer of 1885 was not so hot.

[Timmy]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF might beg to differ.

 

How is it out already?

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Nice! Portland did 76 with that one.

From way back then March-April 1885 has always fascinated me as well. Probably the ridgiest stretch we've seen recorded here in the early spring. And also after a very cold winter. Between March 12 and April 10, Portland only had 0.01" of rain with an average maximum of 67 and what looked like blazing sunshine most of the time. That ridgy stretch lasted until early May and culminated in a 94 degree day on May 5, which gives it pretty good heat cred even by today's standards!

December 1884 was insane.  Without question the most bad azzz December on record.  I'll have to look at the records I have for spring 1885 for this area.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF is really warm for sure.

Yikes.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Timmy said:

How is it out already?

Started coming out 1 hour earlier after upgrade.    

[snow_wizard]

At least the ECMWF has decent mins.

[Thunder98]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yikes.

Looks toasty

[Timmy]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Started coming out 1 hour earlier after upgrade.    

Game changer 

[BLI snowman]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Fascinating stuff.    I suspect summer of 1885 was not so hot.

A wet/troughy period eventually followed but July was pretty legit actually, and one of the first "hot" summer months in Portland's records. Very comparable to a modern July. Then August was totally dry with plenty of warm afternoons as well, but the UHI influence was clearly a little less back then so the averages were held in check.

 

Edited March 8 by BLI snowman

[MossMan]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF might beg to differ.

 

It’s coming! 

[Doinko]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

December 1884 was insane.  Without question the most bad azzz December on record.  I'll have to look at the records I have for spring 1885 for this area.

Do you have some snow totals from that month? The only one I've seen is Portland's 34.1" which is amazing for Downtown at sea level especially.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

A wet/troughy period eventually followed but July was pretty legit actually, and one of the first "hot" summer months in Portland's records. August was totally dry with plenty of warm afternoons as well, but the UHI influence was a little less back then.

95 degrees on the 4th of July!    

 

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

95 degrees on the 4th of July!    

 

I bet it must have been a ton of fun in the clothing back then!!!

[Meatyorologist]

34 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Nice! Portland did 76 with that one.

From way back then March-April 1885 has always fascinated me as well. Probably the ridgiest stretch we've seen recorded here in the early spring. And also after a very cold winter. Between March 12 and April 10, Portland only had 0.01" of rain with an average maximum of 67 and what looked like blazing sunshine most of the time. That ridgy stretch lasted until early May and culminated in a 94 degree day on May 5, which gives it pretty good heat cred even by today's standards!

The winter of 1879-80 was an equally ridgy period for the southeast US. Then you have its inverse in 1861-62 out here. The more and more I read about it, the more and more it seems that the 19th century was a time period of midlatitude extremes overall. Or perhaps I am simply acknowledging the extremes you'd expect to see out of an entire century of weather across a whole continent.

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  Justin wasn't kidding about spring 1885.  In Tacoma the 2 month total for March and April was 1.48"  That is pretty insane.

BTW...did anyone know they called it New Tacoma back then?

[snow_wizard]

45 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The winter of 1879-80 was an equally ridgy period for the southeast US. Then you have its inverse in 1861-62 out here. The more and more I read about it, the more and more it seems that the 19th century was a time period of midlatitude extremes overall. Or perhaps I am simply acknowledging the extremes you'd expect to see out of an entire century of weather across a whole continent.

It was insane back then.  The winter of 1861-62 had a January actually slightly colder than Jan 1950, but Dec and Feb were way colder than 1949-50.  The winter of 1879-80 is totally in a class all its own compared to any other we know of.  From what I have been able to gather the entire winter had about 105" of snow in Seattle.  The really cool thing is we even know how the two lows tracked that brought the monster snow in January.  They both took the dream track for Central Puget Sound snowstorms and they were beasts.  Everybody would have gotten nailed given the tracks of the lows.  It appears an AR set up between the passage of the two beastly low pressure systems, and all hell broke loose.  I could possibly know more about the details of that event than any person currently alive.  A lot of material out there, but pulling it all together makes an amazing picture.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It was insane back then.  The winter of 1861-62 had a January actually slightly colder than Jan 1950, but Dec and Feb were way colder than 1949-50.  The winter of 1879-80 is totally in a class all its own compared to any other we know of.  From what I have been able to gather the entire winter had about 105" of snow in Seattle.  The really cool thing is we even know how the two lows tracked that brought the monster snow in January.  They both took the dream track for Central Puget Sound snowstorms and they were beasts.  Everybody would have gotten nailed given the tracks of the lows.  It appears an AR set up between the passage of the two beastly low pressure systems, and all hell broke loose.  I could possibly know more about the details of that event than any person currently alive.  A lot of material out there, but pulling it all together makes an amazing picture.

IT'S GOING TO HAPPEN AGAIN THIS YEAR, ITS COMING!!

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

A wet/troughy period eventually followed but July was pretty legit actually, and one of the first "hot" summer months in Portland's records. Very comparable to a modern July. Then August was totally dry with plenty of warm afternoons as well, but the UHI influence was clearly a little less back then so the averages were held in check.

 

Seeing the data in that format is nice and clean, but microfilm of the actual hand written material is really fascinating.  Notes were included that add real life to it.  I have transcribed some of the records to a more modern format for convenience of course.

I have some of the microfilmed material on a thumb drive that I could send to you if you send it back to me.  The two biggies I have are Fort Steilacom and Tacoma.  Also some Spokane and Walla Walla I think.

[snow_wizard]

32 on the nose and it's almost midnight.  The clouds are holding off just long enough.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

KILL ALL YELLOWJACKETS!! Last summer was the worst summer I've ever seen in terms of yellow jackets, there were so many of them. August-early October you'd get swarmed by a billion yellow jackets on every hike, I got stung SIX TIMES in that period, it was TERRIBLE.

 

Yellow jackets must go EXTINCT!!!

There's been a lot of fun talk today about one March ridge endangering our region. But I think removing a key pollenating species would actually wipe out a good chunk of the remaining biosphere in the city, not to mention irreversibly alter the ecosystem in the wild.

But they are a nuisance, no matter how you slice it.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

There's been a lot of fun talk today about one March ridge endangering our region. But I think removing a key pollenating species would actually wipe out a good chunk of the remaining biosphere in the city, not to mention irreversibly alter the ecosystem in the wild.

But they are a nuisance, no matter how you slice it.

They were terrible last year.  I think it might have had something to do with how much sap the fir tree branches were leaking.  Our cars were getting coated with the stuff and the bees loved it.

[Cascadia_Wx]

With their 51/26 day today, it looks like the first week of March 2024 will go down as the 10th coldest on record for Vancouver, WA. Records since 1891.

2019 was their 5th coldest, for some context. The next top ten coldest was 30 years before, in 1989. The rest of the top ten were in the 1950s-70s, aside from 1896.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Already down to 34 here. Clouds look to hold off for a little while longer, so another freeze is likely. It’s been a really nice stretch of weather since about 2/26.

[snow_wizard]

The EPS seems more inclined to retrograde the ridge a bit after day 10.  More into what I like to call the cold night spot.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

With their 51/26 day today, it looks like the first week of March 2024 will go down as the 10th coldest on record for Vancouver, WA. Records since 1891.

2019 was their 5th coldest, for some context. The next top ten coldest was 30 years before, in 1989. The rest of the top ten were in the 1950s-70s, aside from 1896.

Looks like number 7 for SEA.  Same deal....coldest since 1989 and all the rest are pre 1975.  Really weird how the first half of the 20th century was so unimpressive for March.

[snow_wizard]

31.6!  Another freeze.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 32F snuck in another freeze!

[Phil]

WxBell has added the ECMWF AIFS. Runs 4X/day and goes out to 360hrs. Interested to see how it performs compared to the operational ECMWF HRES and EPS.