April 2024 Weather in the PNW

[MossMan]

Had a low of 34 and a little frost on the roof once again. 

[TT-SEA]

49 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Dry, exacerbate the drought, YAY!

If its any consolation... the "drought" prone areas are generally related to mountain snow and its really hard to make up mountain snow deficits in May regardless of the pattern.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If its any consolation... the "drought" prone areas are generally related to mountain snow and its really hard to make up mountain snow deficits in May regardless of the pattern.

A lot of good can happen in May/June, we could be building the snowpack rather than melting it, and that would make a huge posotive difference on the snowpack.

[TT-SEA]

57 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

A lot of good can happen in May/June, we could be building the snowpack rather than melting it, and that would make a huge posotive difference on the snowpack.

 

True.

 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

If its any consolation... the "drought" prone areas are generally related to mountain snow and its really hard to make up mountain snow deficits in May regardless of the pattern.

Shouldn’t you be sipping martinis on the beach right now?  

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

Shouldn’t you be sipping martinis on the beach right now?  

Next week.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

For the first 20 days of June 2022 there was only one day here without rain and only 2 days at SEA with 0.00 for the day.   But for the first 10 days of the month it was a warm, humid rain.     

Then it only rained on 5 days from June 20 - October 20.  

Zero days at my house from June 16th to October 22nd. 4" of snow on Nov 4th

[Phil]

The 12z CMC would put any drought worries to bed.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Nice to see widespread lows in the 30s again this morning. PDX decoupled more quickly and actually got a degree or two colder than last night it appears.

Low of 36 here with some light frost but not as much as yesterday. Still impressive to see frost on back to back mornings this late.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The 12z CMC would put any drought worries to bed.

Too bad random model runs can’t end drought. It takes actual rain!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The 12z CMC would put any drought worries to bed.

Yes... this would solve everything. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

54 degrees and sunny now. Another beautiful morning,  and even easier to enjoy with something besides endless sun and warmth in the forecast at the moment.

[Phil]

28 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Too bad random model runs can’t end drought. It takes actual rain!

I’m actually optimistic about a wetter pattern as the MJO returns to the E-Hem. Maybe not quite to the level of the 12z CMC, but in that general direction. There’s nothing in the system state to suggest 2024 will be a dry tinderbox in the PNW.

That said, those in CA/SW US should keep a watchful eye as the second half of this year could flip dry. Good thing those reservoirs are filled to the brim because La Niña will take no prisoners once it establishes.

Only “good” news is we shouldn’t have the godzilla-like 4CH roasting the intermountain west this summer. Will be at least somewhat flatter/suppressed, but not to the extent of 2008 where it was almost nonexistent. More likely to resemble 2020 or 2010.

It probably won’t be enough to stop a very warm summer nationally, though. The broader mid-latitude pattern looks ugly, and I suspect the entire lower-48 (including WA/OR) will run warmer than average. But the nastiest stuff will probably center in the Plains or Midwest, not at the coasts.

[Phil]

38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... this would solve everything. 

The first 5 days are dry but the faucet of life turns on week-2.

If the pattern evolved exactly as modeled, it actually might “solve” a lot (esp extrapolating that pattern forward). Doesn’t mean it will verify but it’s one of the possibilities.

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

The first 5 days are dry but the faucet of life turns on week-2.

If the pattern evolved exactly as modeled, it actually might “solve” a lot (esp extrapolating that pattern forward). Doesn’t mean it will verify but it’s one of the possibilities.

ECMWF looks somewhat similar but not real wet.   Looks like we won't be missing any warm, sunny weather while we are gone.    Need it to be stormy starting next Wednesday!

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows only .47 in Seattle and .28 in Portland over next 10 days.   Not exactly crazy wet.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like 38 at PDX this morning. 34 for VUO. Both beat yesterday’s lows by a degree. Not bad!

[ShawniganLake]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows only .47 in Seattle and .28 in Portland over next 10 days.   Not exactly crazy wet.

Should be a drought buster in BC.  

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/dry-nechako-riverbed-in-prince-george-1.7159123
 

[BLI snowman]

39 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m actually optimistic about a wetter pattern as the MJO returns to the E-Hem. Maybe not quite to the level of the 12z CMC, but in that general direction. There’s nothing in the system state to suggest 2024 will be a dry tinderbox in the PNW.

That said, those in CA/SW US should keep a watchful eye as the second half of this year could flip dry. Good thing those reservoirs are filled to the brim because La Niña will take no prisoners once it establishes.

Only “good” news is we shouldn’t have the godzilla-like 4CH roasting the intermountain west this summer. Will be at least somewhat flatter/suppressed, but not to the extent of 2008 where it was almost nonexistent. More likely to resemble 2020 or 2010.

It probably won’t be enough to stop a very warm summer nationally, though. The broader mid-latitude pattern looks ugly, and I suspect the entire lower-48 (including WA/OR) will run warmer than average. But the nastiest stuff will probably center in the Plains or Midwest, not at the coasts.

Funny enough, the last few big snowpack years in CA were all  *drumroll... Niñas!

2010-11, 2016-17, 2022-23.

La Niña truly brings the nourishing juices of life to all. Particularly to the Mid Atlantic states, where it allows the newly-native flora to thrive as it works to further expedite the transfer of the humid subtropical climate/bioregion into your neck of the woods.

[Cascadia_Wx]

26 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Should be a drought buster in BC.  

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/dry-nechako-riverbed-in-prince-george-1.7159123
 

That’s a poster above the bed pic for Shawnigan if I’ve ever seen one 

[Deweydog]

Breezy! Gusting up around 40 at Larch.

Adiabatacular! 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS is not even wetter than normal over the next 15 days.

[TT-SEA]

Man it's gorgeous out.   Piercing blue sky and pleasant temp.   Perfect April weather.

A week ago Phil was talking about this period being a Jesse-tastic pattern.    Turns out it's a pattern almost everyone loves.

[ShawniganLake]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Man it's gorgeous out.   Piercing blue sky and pleasant temp.   Perfect April weather.

A week ago Phil was talking about this period being a Jesse-tastic pattern.    Turns out it's a pattern almost everyone loves.

The cool dry mornings have been really nice.  Lawns are dried out for mowing almost as soon as the frost is gone.  

[Phishy Wx]

headed to Vegas Saturday to catch Phish at the Sphere

 

This place is Amazing

 

[Phishy Wx]

already in the 90s down there, while we have Graupel lol

[T-Town]

RIP Dickey Betts. 

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, T-Town said:

RIP Dickey Betts. 

Oof. This one’s gotta be hitting my dad pretty hard. He was a FANATIC. Not too many bands can pull off an 11/4 groove (Whipping Post).

RIP

[Front Ranger]

36 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

headed to Vegas Saturday to catch Phish at the Sphere

 

This place is Amazing

 

I can see the sphere right now.

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I can see the sphere right now.

going to the shows?

[Front Ranger]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

going to the shows?

No, sadly. I'm outta here tomorrow, work conference. 

Enjoy! I've heard it's fantastic. 

[T-Town]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Oof. This one’s gotta be hitting my dad pretty hard. He was a FANATIC. Not too many bands can pull off an 11/4 groove (Whipping Post).

RIP

There’s a great documentary called After the Crash that talks about how they continued on and really produced some of their best stuff after Duane Allman was killed. Quite the rock and roll saga. Im a sucker for that stuff. 

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, T-Town said:

There’s a great documentary called After the Crash that talks about how they continued on and really produced some of their best stuff after Duane Allman was killed. Quite the rock and roll saga. Im a sucker for that stuff. 

I’ve watched Rush Beyond the Lighted Stage more times than I’m willing to admit.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

A very nice 69F and beautiful out there.

[bainbridgekid]

On 4/14/2024 at 9:51 PM, Mercurial said:

Went to the local beach on Whitefish Lake today.  People swimming, boating, beaching, and vibing.  In April.  In Montana.  I feel like we're going to pay dearly for this bliss come August. 

My friend was in Missoula yesterday and said it snowed 2" between 10am and Noon. Quite the shift!

[TT-SEA]

Not sure what NOAA is seeing... 

[Cold Snap]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure what NOAA is seeing... 

Yeah they are even saying May is probably going to torch for us. I feel like this isn’t going to be as hot as last May though.

[RentonHill]

It'd be cool if we could view model output (upper level, large scale progression type of stuff/500mb) on 3D maps rather than the 2D distorted projections

[YahRaEl]

[Tanis Leach]

Photo Credit: Thomas Wong from the Oregon skiers Facebook group. 

 

A mountain Goat has been spotted at Mt. Hood Meadows' in Heather Canyon. I believe this is the first Mountain Goat spotted here in 100+ years (correct me if I'm wrong).