May 2024 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

As we quickly approach the last month of Met Spring, what will Mother Nature bring?  Hopefully not any May SNOW showers!  During one of the signature periods of the LRC, we saw that West-Based Greenland Block and it is starting to show up Big time in the modeling.  Could this be a theme for May and into the summer months ahead?  I'm pretty confident that it will be and the pattern up in Canada suggests that wild fires will start early and often.  Unfortunately, they have been plagued with fires especially up across the Southern and Eastern parts of the country last year, iirc.  My gut says the same areas in parts of Eastern and Southern Canada are going to get the worst of it.  Bullseye near Ontario???  Man, I sure hope not.  "Hazy Summer Skies"...will be something to keep an eye on this summer season.

South of the border, what does May look like?  The CFSv2 has been gun-ho on a remarkably active pattern across the heartland and dry across the GL's.  Due to the blocking pattern across the N & E parts of North America, I think its right.  There will be some happy folks on here and nasso happy peeps near the Lakes/OHV.  

 

 

 

Nearly every LR model is showing a cool to COLD open to the month of May....May snow?  Well, the GFS says it will Snow...heck no!  Let's discuss as I believe this will be quite and active and fairly interesting month ahead.

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Here is a map of last year's fire season up north...

[Clinton]

Looks like may will kick-off wet for mby.  Models indicating 1-2 inches of rain possible, this wet pattern sure is welcome.

[Clinton]

More big storms to open the month day 3 targeting eastern Nebraska and western Iowa again, hopefully not as bad as the past 2 days.  Maybe those who missed out or didn't get as much rain as they wanted with the current system can score with this one.

[Black Hole]

We will be getting another good soaker Thursday, with some severe potential though probably not a big event. I think areas west of here such as OKC stand a better bet of some severe weather Wednesday as well. 

[Black Hole]

Overall, monthly guidance does seem to indicate an above normal risk of severe weather episodes for the Plains. I do hope to keep the rains going but obviously could do without the violent tornadoes. 

[Clinton]

Scattered thunderstorms are in the forecast most of the week here but heavier widespread rains look possible Saturday and Sunday with a slow moving system.  

[jcwxguy]

Nearly 3" rain here the last few days. Much needed moisture to help with prolonged drought 

[Black Hole]

Late tonight (Tuesday night into Wed) could sneak some storm activity into here. The ECMWF AI model, and some of the MPAS cams are bringing some decent rains overnight. 

[Clinton]

Mother Nature is offering no rest for the Central Plains including the areas hit hard over the weekend.  Models don't really agree on how long the storms hold together this evening or even where they track.  This will all probably be effected by this mornings storms.

Already an enhanced risk for tomorrow but location will likely be effected by tonight's storms.

Thursday looks like the wettest day for alot of us especially my area and the flood issues will likely be aggravated. 

[Tom]

This pattern is going to be relentless as we move ahead into the Merry Month of May...

[Black Hole]

Ended up with another 2.5" of rain last night at my place. Of course I was in the office and we didn't get as much but whatever. 

Active pattern will support additional storm chances tonight and Thursday but it's more marginal for both severe potential and heavy rain. 

[Clinton]

KC metro looks to be the Hotspot for excessive rainfall tonight through tomorrow.  

[westMJim]

Merry month of May

May is the fifth month of the year, and here in the Northern Hemisphere it is the last month of spring. Late May typically marks the start of the summer vacation season in the United States and Canada. At Grand Rapids we start the month off with 14 hours and 7 minutes of daylight and end the month with 15 hours and 7 minutes for a gain of one hour.

In Grand Rapids the average high starts out at 64.3 and ends the month at 74.9. The average low starts out at 43.2 and ends the month at 53.8. The all-time high for May is 95 on May 31, 1934.  On May 28, 2018 the high reached 94. The record low of 21 was set on May 1^st, 1903. The most snow fall on any day in May is 5.5” and that amount fell on May 10^th in 1902 and that same amount of 5.5” was reported on May 9^th, 1923. The record wettest May is 10.01” and that fell in May of 2001 and the driest May was in 1936 when just 0.72” fell. . There has been a total of 12 years when measurable snow fell in May The last time was on May 1^st, 1994. Here are some May top 5’s

The average May mean at Grand Rapids is 59.2

Warmest mean temperature

1. 1977   65.7
2. 1896   65.3
3. 1982    65.0
4. 2018    64.8
5. 1911     64.5

Coldest mean temperature

1. 1997    50.3
2. 1924     50.7
3. 1945      50.7
4. 1947      51.1
5. 1917      51.7

Snowiest May’s of record

1. 1902    5.5”
2. 1923     5.5”
3. 1954      3.0”
4. 1940     0.8”
5. 1935      0.4”

Wettest May’s of record

1. 2001 10.01”
2. 2000   9.59”
3. 2004    9.29”
4. 1981     8.29”
5. 1911     7.18”

Driest May’s of record

1. 1936   0.72”
2. 1987   0.94”
3. 1925    0.98”
4. 1961    1.03”
5. 1971     1.05”

The early morning hours of Sunday, May 31, 1998, brought one of the most memorable storm events to Michigan. A derecho -- a long-lived line of intense, fast-moving thunderstorms producing widespread destructive winds -- tore through much of the Great Lakes region. 

[westMJim]

Welcome to May. The official H/L yesterday was 63/47 there was no rainfall and the sun was out 76% of the time. The leaves are now mostly out on the trees so we are a good two weeks ahead of schedule. For today the average H/L is 64/43 the record high of 88 was set in 1942 and the record low of 21 was set in 1903. The record rainfall of 2.02” was in 2003. Last year the H/L was 45/36 there was 0.22” of rain and a trace of snowfall.

April 2024 had a mean of 50.7 that is a departure of +3.1. The high for the month was 80 on the 27th and the low for the month was 28 on the 25th there was 2.67” of rainfall that is a departure of -1.32” there was just a trace of snowfall and that is a departure of -30.1”

[Timmy Supercell]

First day of May, and not joking this is our first fog in like 2+ months. It's been strangely absent this year.

57 right now after a low of 54. Fog is not as thick now as it was an hour ago.

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, Black Hole said:

Ended up with another 2.5" of rain last night at my place. Of course I was in the office and we didn't get as much but whatever. 

Active pattern will support additional storm chances tonight and Thursday but it's more marginal for both severe potential and heavy rain. 

Wunderground has been showing several days in a row of t'storm chances here starting this weekend, but yeah it doesn't appear to bring any major severe potential. 

[Tom]

As the Europeans says, Happy Mad Day, the 1st of May is recognized as a Holiday across most countries in Europe.  Boy, those Europeans sure have a LOT of holidays!  Make it a great Day!  

 

[Blizzard777]

Oklahoma City this last night and this morning !  

[Blizzard777]

Loving these storms 

Today I need to get in the road and do some actual chasing in the farmlands! Hoping to get that one shot and cool experience 

[CentralNebWeather]

Wet pattern continues. 

[Naptownwx]

Next week could be another big event. Looking at the ensembles and other signals looks like May is going to be very active 

[CentralNebWeather]

Here we go again. 

 

[Black Hole]

MCS with embedded MCV (basically a small low) moving into OKC at this hour. It should spread some non-severe storms in here later. Some guidance still showing strong winds developing north of the low later in the night as it weakens. 

[Black Hole]

We will probably need another multi day severe weather thread for the pattern coming next week at some point. Looks like another potential doozy. 

[Clinton]

Rainy day today with widespread 1 to 1.5 inch amounts in western Missouri..  Calm day tomorrow before more rain moves in Saturday morning.

[Clinton]

Models are showing a strong cold front later next week that will likely keep temps below to much below average through mid month.

 

[Black Hole]

26 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Models are showing a strong cold front later next week that will likely keep temps below to much below average through mid month.

 

Fine by me! We are getting into the time of the year where it can easily become annoyingly hot. Summer is long enough, every day we can avoid heat is a good day.

Hopefully the summer pattern resembles the current one and keeps us closer to or below normal for temps. 

[Clinton]

25 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

Fine by me! We are getting into the time of the year where it can easily become annoyingly hot. Summer is long enough, every day we can avoid heat is a good day.

Hopefully the summer pattern resembles the current one and keeps us closer to or below normal for temps. 

I agree and love being able to have the windows open in the house versus running the AC.

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Rainy day today with widespread 1 to 1.5 inch amounts in western Missouri..  Calm day tomorrow before more rain moves in Saturday morning.

#stormparade...you've had the hot hand of late...hopefully it won't be too much a good thing!

[bud2380]

Love seeing this rain pour down this morning.  Looks like it's going to come down for several hours.  Should see widespread 1"+ totals I would think based on how hard it's raining now and looking at radar trends.  

[chescowxman]

After yesterday's slight cooling today will see temps pop back up into the 80's. We should see temps trend back to normal and then below starting tomorrow through the weekend. Some higher spots in the county may actually struggle to escape the 50's for high temps both Saturday and Sunday. We will also see some showers around by Sunday. We should warm back to above normal by the middle of next week but should see a solid stretch of cooler than normal temps returning by mid-May.
Chester County records for today: High 91 degrees at Coatesville (1899) / Low 28 degrees also at Coatesville (1903) / Rain 1.84" at Chadds Ford (1976)

[Blizzard777]

On 5/1/2024 at 7:51 AM, Timmy Supercell said:

Wunderground has been showing several days in a row of t'storm chances here starting this weekend, but yeah it doesn't appear to bring any major severe potential. 

Come on down to Oklahoma ! It’s been a blast experiencing these storms 

[bud2380]

Really healthy rain reports in the area.  2.5" about 15 miles from my house.  Looks like closer to 1" at my home.  I'll have to check the gauge tonight.  Most of these locations are in moderate to severe drought conditions too according to the latest repot.

 

 

[Hawkeye]

I got a solid 0.92" this morning.  It appears most, if not all, of the afternoon/evening rain will be east of my area.

[chescowxman]

Here in Chester County PA we finished April with an overall average temperature of 53.8 about 2.0 degrees above the long term 132 year average. The warmest spot was as is usually the case Phoenixville as the lowest observation spot in the county at 54.9 degrees. The coolest was the 53.0 in Warwick Township. Overall this was our 28th warmest April on record across 132 years of observation data. Of note 13 of the top 20 warmest Aprils occurred prior to 1990. While 3 of the coldest Aprils have all occurred just since 2007. Below is a graph analyzing the April temp trends (actual in blue) since 1893. I have also as always overlaid the NCEI adjusted temps (in red). As we can see they again consistently applied chilling adjustments to cool the data for every year over 110 consecutive years from 1895 thru 2005. Of interest since 2005 they have now begun to apply warming adjustments to the actual data in 12 of the last 18 years. The appropriate trend lines reflect the clear impact these post hoc adjustments have made to the warming trend lines.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Record high of 90F set at PHL today. It is the 2nd 90-degree day at PHL. April 24 is now the latest day with a sub-90F record high at PHL.

[chescowxman]

High here in East Nantmeal was 84.8 - no Airport or MADIS locales here in Chester County PA have hit 90 today. Highest obs was the 87.8 at KOQN airport in West Chester

90's are certainly much tougher to find out here in the Western philly burbs

[chescowxman]

We are off to a 1.6 degree cooler start to 2024 (42.6 degrees) compared to last year across the Chester County PA reporting sites. However while cooler than last year we are at the 9th warmest first 4 months on record since 1893. The Top 8 warmest are

1. 1998 - 44.24
2. 2023 - 44.22
3. 1990 - 44.0
4. 2012 - 43.7
5. 1913 - 43.1
6. 2017 - 43.1
7. 1949 - 42.8
8. 2002 - 42.8

[Stormy]

I ended up with 1.45" of rain today. Happened to be in a narrow training band of rain for awhile, but parts of southern Iowa got more with several inches. May get a tiny bit more soon with the cool front about to move through. Another beautiful rain.