May 2024 Pacific Northwest Weather

[ShawniganLake]

Cloudy but warm this afternoon. 66/50 so far.  Trace of rain earlier. 

[Groundhog]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Post about an anniversary with snow covered mountains and cloudy skies.   Downvote that sucker.   That will teach you to post pics of your little kids running through woods and saying you prefer sunny days.   

I was so broken up about it, I snapped another picture. Despite the imposing north face of Cheam, One can easily summit it from the south. 

[Meatyorologist]

I got a feeling June will be cool and wet 'round these parts after a surprisingly warm and dry May.

[High Desert Mat?]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Zero indication of any niña cell establishing. At least as things currently stand across guidance.

Which makes sense since this Nino didn’t act as one either. 

[T-Town]

52 degrees with .10 so far today. A gray and gloomy day for sure. 

[Slushy Inch]

Looks like perma ridge is coming. Some chance it shifts a bit west eventually.

[MossMan]

Still a dry deck here! 

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Which makes sense since this Nino didn’t act as one either. 

Not to put you on the spot, but from what I can remember, this was actually one of the most prototypical Niños in modern history. @Phil could probably back the strength of the regime up with a whole basket of numbers and acronyms. With the exception of mid January's SSW induced blip and a few expected, but brief, episodes of transient NW flow, our local weather pattern was locked in a +PNA death grip from late November's strong anticyclone and inversion, all the way until January's end-of-month atmospheric river bonanza-torch withered into the opening days of February.

A slight +PNA lean still persisted through the end of February before March two thousand and twenty two entered the ring and immediately introduced the first natural system-state troughing regime (no SSW takesies-backsies) in over three months. Even then, the Ides gifted a stout ridge and a fancy pair of record highs, including what still remains to be the warmest weather of the year so far at KSEA...

[the_convergence_zone]

If we’re going to get anything decent out of this it will probably be in the next few hours. 0.06 so far, a quarter inch seems like a stretch goal. 

[the_convergence_zone]

39 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I got a feeling June will be cool and wet 'round these parts after a surprisingly warm and dry May.

One can hope…so far the outlook for May doesn’t look too bad. I don’t see any 80s on the horizon like last year. 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

One can hope…so far the outlook for May doesn’t look too bad. I don’t see any 80s on the horizon like last year. 

Probably be 80s next weekend... at least away from the water.

Like out here...

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Probably be 80s next weekend... at least away from rhe water.

Yeah it does look like that on the east side. Looking at the KSEA meteograms suggests it will be close. 80s in May are pretty typical these days it seems… 

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

One can hope…so far the outlook for May doesn’t look too bad. I don’t see any 80s on the horizon like last year. 

Models looks pretty steadfast on 80s by Friday. Ensembles might be more muddled, I haven't checked though.

[Anti Marine Layer]

@AlTahoe enjoy the snow

 

[Omegaraptor]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Not to put you on the spot, but from what I can remember, this was actually one of the most prototypical Niños in modern history. @Phil could probably back the strength of the regime up with a whole basket of numbers and acronyms. With the exception of mid January's SSW induced blip and a few expected, but brief, episodes of transient NW flow, our local weather pattern was locked in a +PNA death grip from late November's strong anticyclone and inversion, all the way until January's end-of-month atmospheric river bonanza-torch withered into the opening days of February.

A slight +PNA lean still persisted through the end of February before March two thousand and twenty two entered the ring and immediately introduced the first natural system-state troughing regime (no SSW takesies-backsies) in over three months. Even then, the Ides gifted a stout ridge and a fancy pair of record highs, including what still remains to be the warmest weather of the year so far at KSEA...

Yup... December was a +4.5 at PDX, just barely missed warmest on record. Had a ridiculous 67/56 day early in the month too, that 67 is the warmest December temp on record.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Yeah it does look like that on the east side. Looking at the KSEA meteograms suggests it will be close. 80s in May are pretty typical these days it seems… 

I think it always been somewhat typical.  

I just randomly checked Seattle stats from 100+ years ago and many years had some 80-degree temps in May.   May of 1895 peaked at 86 in Seattle.   Even 2008 had a peak temp of 90 at SEA in May.

[High Desert Mat?]

15 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Not to put you on the spot, but from what I can remember, this was actually one of the most prototypical Niños in modern history. @Phil could probably back the strength of the regime up with a whole basket of numbers and acronyms. With the exception of mid January's SSW induced blip and a few expected, but brief, episodes of transient NW flow, our local weather pattern was locked in a +PNA death grip from late November's strong anticyclone and inversion, all the way until January's end-of-month atmospheric river bonanza-torch withered into the opening days of February.

A slight +PNA lean still persisted through the end of February before March two thousand and twenty two entered the ring and immediately introduced the first natural system-state troughing regime (no SSW takesies-backsies) in over three months. Even then, the Ides gifted a stout ridge and a fancy pair of record highs, including what still remains to be the warmest weather of the year so far at KSEA...

Fair enough. But what I was thinking about like the normal every day person would see is that El Niños typically are front loaded with dry and drought conditions February onward. Didn’t feel like a typical El Niño to me. 

[TT-SEA]

At SEA... every day in May with the exception of 5/3 has a record high of 80+

And 5 days have a record of 90+ and none of those are in the last 15 years.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Portlands average first 80 is May 6th. About a week ago many in here thought it might happen today. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems like most of last May was around or above 80. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Was snowing, but not sticking going over Santiam Pass this afternoon. Out on the Crooked River the past couple days. Didn’t really rain today until about noon as we were leaving. Caught a few trout, though the river was pretty high. Prineville reservoir is full already. 

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Portlands average first 80 is May 6th. About a week ago many in here thought it might happen today. 

That was a very tenuous set up only shown the GFS caused by the current system digging a little further south.   The ECMWF, EPS, and GEM never even hinted at it which is red flashing sign that the GFS is out to lunch.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

I got a feeling June will be cool and wet 'round these parts after a surprisingly warm and dry May.

I suspect the bulk of May will be warm/dry up there, but sandwiched between cool/wet patterns at the beginning/end (current troughy pattern and the next one ~ 25th).

What happens from the solstice onwards will probably hinge on if/when the niña cell begins to establish. Right now there is no indication of a niña circulation on the EPS weeklies, which run through mid-June. If anything there’s a weak (but insignificant) low frequency signal near the dateline, which is more niño-like.

But really this is pure MJO without much of an ENSO component.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Been an interesting start to May. Thursday was supposed to be a dry mild day, but it definitely wasn’t. 
 

Just got home, currently 41 with moderate rain. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Not to put you on the spot, but from what I can remember, this was actually one of the most prototypical Niños in modern history. @Phil could probably back the strength of the regime up with a whole basket of numbers and acronyms. With the exception of mid January's SSW induced blip and a few expected, but brief, episodes of transient NW flow, our local weather pattern was locked in a +PNA death grip from late November's strong anticyclone and inversion, all the way until January's end-of-month atmospheric river bonanza-torch withered into the opening days of February.

A slight +PNA lean still persisted through the end of February before March two thousand and twenty two entered the ring and immediately introduced the first natural system-state troughing regime (no SSW takesies-backsies) in over three months. Even then, the Ides gifted a stout ridge and a fancy pair of record highs, including what still remains to be the warmest weather of the year so far at KSEA...

It was a very strong niño, in some ways more-so than 2015/16 despite the lower ONI. The way it developed was also unique in the post-1976 era (pacific climate shift) in that it began as a niño-costero/EPAC event with the low frequency projection spreading westward from there, which is the opposite of how niños have developed since the late 1970s.

Where-as many if not most significant niños during the 1950s-70s developed similarly to the 2023/24 event (1972/73 being the most recent example).

[Phil]

1 hour ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Fair enough. But what I was thinking about like the normal every day person would see is that El Niños typically are front loaded with dry and drought conditions February onward. Didn’t feel like a typical El Niño to me. 

Believe it or not you could have two niños that are almost clones structurally, but entirely different regional outcomes with the slightest tweaks to a few boundary conditions.

You can’t know how healthy/coupled a niño is from the weather in your backyard (unless you live in Peru or Australia, maybe). Structurally speaking, the 2023/24 was one of the most majestic of the 21st century, and teleconnected beautifully w/ the extratropics.

[FroYoBro]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Been an interesting start to May. Thursday was supposed to be a dry mild day, but it definitely wasn’t. 
 

Just got home, currently 41 with moderate rain. 

D**n, that is a chilly afternoon for May!

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

19 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Beautiful pictures! I’m not sure if avalanches are going to be an issue for you this weekend but someone loss their life at   St. Helens last month. Take care and be safe to you all!  

There'll be some Avalanche danger but it shouldn't be that bad, and we always turn back if it gets too dangerous. Thank you for well wishes. 

 

Im still in shock about what happened to Rocky Shorey last month, he was a very well experienced and accomplished Mountaineer, but he made 1 simple mistake by stepping onto the cornice and it ended the poor guys life.  I've spent a day with rocky a few years back, my buddy was good friends with him and it worked out for us to all go up Jefferson together, and although I didn't get to know him that well in 1 day, it seemed like he was a good and respectful guy and not the type to mess around and make stupid mistakes, and he had a VERY good sense of humor. It was a tragic incident that could've happened to anyone. Deep condolences to his family.

 

[AlTahoe]

For May this storm is very impressive. 5" in 3.5 hours so far 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

6 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

@Cascadia_Wx Logging in every day to smash that downvote button

Not an accurate image, Jessie has too short of a barrel for that... stuff.... to gain enough momentum to travel that far. There's also no lotion in the photo, and considering he has a religious name, he likely needs lotion. 

Other than that, spot on!

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Been waiting for it to start snowing at paradise so we can start going up but it's still raining, but it seems like it'll change to snow very soon, and it'll be quite the dump of snow tonight up on the Mountain, we will not be happy campers. But that's just the conditions we wanted so there are no complaints!

35 at home which is very cold for a may afternoon, .65" rain today. According to the wife, some flakes are starting to mix in with the rain, I'll bet on a few inches of snow tonight. 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Wet day. Cool and lush out there with light to moderate rain much of the daylight hours. Have picked up .70” for the day so far, storm total approaching 1.2” since late yesterday afternoon.

Also on the chilly side. Midnight high of 52 but an afternoon high of just 50 so far. Currently 49 with rain.

[Deweydog]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

I got a feeling June will be cool and wet 'round these parts after a surprisingly warm and dry May.

MBG!

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

At SEA... every day in May with the exception of 5/3 has a record high of 80+

And 5 days have a record of 90+ and none of those are in the last 15 years.

Very impressive that May 2023 avoided any record highs at SEA, Tim.

Oh wait....

[BLI snowman]

Very wet day today. Sorry for those up north who missed out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This rain is such a tremendous blessing upon the land. 
 

Salem up to .80” on the day and 2.19” on the month. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Only 51 at Salem today, at 1am, good for a -17 departure on the high. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Only 51 at Salem today, at 1am, good for a -17 departure on the high. 

They’ve been str8 killin it l8ly.

[TT-SEA]

20 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Very impressive that May 2023 avoided any record highs at SEA, Tim.

Oh wait....

But stayed below 90.   90 degrees there hasn't happened since 2008.    And also in 1963, 1964, and 1983.

[FroYoBro]

1.20 since midnight here. Midnight high of 52 degrees and it is currently 49 degrees.

GOD IS GOOD!