May 2024 Pacific Northwest Weather

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z GFS seems to be showing a less intense secondary warm spell, but it’s also backed off from the troughy pattern in the long range being shown on some runs yesterday. Seems the models are struggling with how to handle that period.

[Phishy Wx]

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

[TT-SEA]

Early look at the 12Z ECMWF shows the ridge rebounding a little better early next week than the last couple runs.  

[Phishy Wx]

This weather station is near my sister's place in SC

oof

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Full 12Z ECMWF run is completed now.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I’m edging on going all in for this next winter. Anybody else believe?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Oh yeah, beautiful day on the gulf again today. Pelicans keeping watch over the ship.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

On 5/5/2024 at 10:10 PM, Anti Marine Layer said:

Some people need gloom to function properly.

 

On 5/6/2024 at 6:53 AM, Phil said:

Excessive heat is a worse stressor to the body.

Humans biologically need sunshine/UV light to survive. In the summer this isn’t a problem because there is ample sunshine. However in the winter this is a problem for some areas. The solution that Mother Nature they gave us is snow. There is a reason why 99% of people like snow and there is a biological explanation for this. In the winter there is less UV light due to clouds and less daylight. So in order to maximize the UV light we get from the sun we need snow since it can reflect around 80% of the UV rays. That’s the reason why they say to wear sun screen when going skiing or snowboarding. You can get more sun when you have snow than at the beach. So if you are ever feeling down during the winter go up to the and get some .

 

[T-Town]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I can find March and April pretty nice here. But my ace in the hole is that sun and/or snow aren’t the only types of weather I’m able to enjoy.

I prefer Feb - April to Nov - Jan. Sure I love snow and the core of winter is when we’re most likely to get it. But it rarely happens, more often just gray. Starting in February the days start getting noticeably longer and the weather is more variable. Overall more enjoyable to me. 

[RentonHill]

yoink

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

yoink

FWIW... the 12Z control run is also on board with a second ridge.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice day on the river. 

[TT-SEA]

Cottonwood puff ball season might be starting here.   See some float by out there today in the sunshine and light breeze.    Might look like its snowing in places by this weekend.

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice day on the river. 

watch out for gators

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Cottonwood puff ball season might be starting here.   See some float by out there today in the sunshine and light breeze.    Might look like its snowing in places by this weekend.

They like to gather in my pool

[Meatyorologist]

perma ridge incoming!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Snow definitely would’ve added to the fun, but overall the blast this January was pretty top tier in every other aspect. Who knows when we will actually see ice formations like this down on the Puget sound again. Might be decades before it happens again. 

Snow definitely added to the fun last January!

[Front Ranger]

3 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Yeah interdecadal variability makes it a little tricky, but if you compared the last 20 years to the 1950-2000 average I think you'd probably get a plot that looks fairly similar to the trend plot. There's no doubt that winter snowfall is declining across most of the country. 

Perhaps. We're not seeing that trend for most of the Rockies/high Plains region.

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

Looks like they're basically going with what the GEFS shows. The 12z Euro is quite a bit cooler for the mid section of the country.

Not for the PNW, though.

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

 

Humans biologically need sunshine/UV light to survive. In the summer this isn’t a problem because there is ample sunshine. However in the winter this is a problem for some areas. The solution that Mother Nature they gave us is snow. There is a reason why 99% of people like snow and there is a biological explanation for this. In the winter there is less UV light due to clouds and less daylight. So in order to maximize the UV light we get from the sun we need snow since it can reflect around 80% of the UV rays. That’s the reason why they say to wear sun screen when going skiing or snowboarding. You can get more sun when you have snow than at the beach. So if you are ever feeling down during the winter go up to the and get some .

 

Who cares about sunscreen when only 2.5% of your skin is exposed?

[SnowWillarrive]

6 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Hope that continues the next 75 years 

[snow_wizard]

GFS and ECMWF really diverge for week two.  I really like the look of the GFS.  The EPS looks like an average of the two OPs.

[snow_wizard]

56 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Hope that continues the next 75 years 

Indeed!

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Who cares about sunscreen when only 2.5% of your skin is exposed?

Up here that's kind of absurd as well.  In the winter the sun is so weak it doesn't matter how much of it you get.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Looks like they're basically going with what the GEFS shows. The 12z Euro is quite a bit cooler for the mid section of the country.

Not for the PNW, though.

I think week two is a toss up.  We have had no problem coming up with chilly clippers and cold troughs this season so the ECMWF might be wrong.

[Phil]

15 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Models are struggling.

Guidance is now picking up on the emergence of the new base state (low frequency coupling associated with emerging niña).

But right now it’s inconsistent/blurry, imbedded beneath the MJO/higher frequency components, hence the unstable solutions. Model skill could decrease for quite awhile, as this gets resolved.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

18z breaks the ridge

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Guidance is now picking up on the emergence of the new base state (low frequency coupling associated with emerging niña).

But right now it’s inconsistent/blurry, imbedded beneath the MJO/higher frequency components, hence the unstable solutions. Model skill could decrease for quite awhile, as this gets resolved.

Hope the ECMWF/EPS suite has a better handle on the situation!  

[snow_wizard]

4 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I’m edging on going all in for this next winter. Anybody else believe?

On paper it's about as good as it gets.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

18z breaks the ridge

The GFS is hinting at another round of unseasonably cold weather.  I feel bad rooting for that in a way, because of implications for the tornado ravaged parts of the country.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS is hinting at another round of unseasonably cold weather.  I feel bad rooting for that in a way, because of implications for the tornado ravaged parts of the country.

I don't want cold, I just want wet. But it seems we have to get cold to get wet around here.

[Phil]

31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Hope the ECMWF/EPS suite has a better handle on the situation!  

Ironically, guidance is in relative agreement that the upcoming +dAAMt/MJO transit across the Pacific is the last hurrah for the residual niño elements in the subseasonal mode.

But the *exact* timing makes all the difference w/rt how the pattern evolves over next 2 weeks, even if the end result (late-month) will be the same, regardless.

[MossMan]

Lovely afternoon at the lake. 

[T-Town]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Lovely afternoon at the lake. 

Beautiful!  The dock in the foreground of the heron pic needs some TLC though. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

25 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I don't want cold, I just want wet. But it seems we have to get cold to get wet around here.

Hey you’re figuring it out!

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

Beautiful!  The dock in the foreground of the heron pic needs some TLC though. 

Yeah that’s the neighbors old standalone dock. Before I was born there was a diving board. Then when I was a kid it was just 4 pilings sticking out of the water. Then in the early 90’s they rebuilt it, and now it’s falling apart. 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Guidance is now picking up on the emergence of the new base state (low frequency coupling associated with emerging niña).

But right now it’s inconsistent/blurry, imbedded beneath the MJO/higher frequency components, hence the unstable solutions. Model skill could decrease for quite awhile, as this gets resolved.

Models always have an excuse for sucky performance. Reminds me of some of my employees.

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Models always have an excuse for sucky performance. Reminds me of some of my employees.

Time to PIP the GFS and manage it out

[snow_wizard]

5 hours ago, T-Town said:

I prefer Feb - April to Nov - Jan. Sure I love snow and the core of winter is when we’re most likely to get it. But it rarely happens, more often just gray. Starting in February the days start getting noticeably longer and the weather is more variable. Overall more enjoyable to me. 

My issue is with gloom when the days are long.  I just hate it for some reason.  In the winter it's dark 2/3 of the time anyway.