Jump to content
The Weather Forums

October 2020 Observations and Discussion


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Taken at 12:30PM, on the south side of Ankeny Iowa.  At least 6" on the ground.

Pounding at DSM airport!! .3 to .4 on snowboards ,, probably can muster a wet inch before sunrise.

First flakes of the season here in St. Paul today. It came down pretty heavy for 5-10 minutes this morning. .2” officially at the airport. 

Posted Images

2 hours ago, Tom said:

@FAR_Weather, models are starting to show some consistency and advertising your 1st accumulating snow of the season this Sat/Sun period or very close to you

North trend. Bleh.

It'll be very easy to get missed by this thing.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.7"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

FGF is trying so hard to deny the thought of snow accumulation that they're citing the Canadian ensembles.

  • Confused 1

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.7"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Man, Des Moines has gotten lame with their AFD's lately. Very short and not much for details. They do mention a possible mix sat nite but no accumulation.

I know the feeling with certain NWS Hastings mets.  I don't want a weather report I can see on an app.  There are a couple that are really good and I know when I start reading it is them.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Light wind and early clearing made temps plummet past what they were forecasted to be overnight. 24.1*F.

  • Like 3

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.7"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Today will be another day when the high was reached before sun rise. While not unusual during the winter season this fall has already seen several days when the high was reached before sun rise. Today high will read in the record books as being 59. At the current time it is 50 here with cloudy skies.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Tom said:

CF is sweeping through this morning as temps are now beginning to drop into the 50's amid strong SW winds that will turn NW when the secondary CF makes its way here later this morning.  This will be a healthy arctic front in future cycles.  

 

@FAR_Weather, models are starting to show some consistency and advertising your 1st accumulating snow of the season this Sat/Sun period or very close to you.

00z Ukie...

 

 

sn10_acc.us_nc.png

 

00z Euro...

4.png

 

00z GFS...

 

sn10_acc.us_nc.png

 

geez. Can't believe we are already talking snow maps. Where'd autumn go?? We still have some down here but one thing's for sure, contrasts have been epic between the warm and mild stretches, and the flipping to opposite. Now, if we could get a storm to make use of that during the winter it'd be awesome.

  • Like 2

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

NAM is way weaker with the low @ 1000mb. It's farther South, but also has more of a dry air gut punch so the actual jack zone (which is obviously lower) doesn't move much.

NAMNEST is better for me as the low is a bit stronger, but I'm right on the cutoff. Devils Lake Basin gets up to 8" due to there being no changeover.

  • Like 2

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.7"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Tom said:

Taking a look at today's JMA weeklies, notice how badly it busted for its Week 2 forecast from last week to this week...

Last week it was advertising major warmth across western Canada into the PAC NW...

Y202010.D0712_gl2.png

 

This week, however, it's literally opposite of what is going to happen.  Geeze, that's pretty terrible and prob a sign of the times as we move forward.

Y202010.D1412_gl2.png

 

Week 2...significant cooling is expected as all the models are locking in on a major trough into the eastern CONUS.  Look at that blocking.  BSR will have done well if this transpires.

Y202010.D1412_gl2.png

 

2.png

Week 3-4....if we run the table with cold, this would be reminiscent to Oct-Nov '13 and maybe a bit of Nov' 14.  Wild to even consider this happening given how warm we have been over the past year.  Early ice build up this season on our lakes for the outdoors???  Could be.  Pattern also looks very active and it appears the Caribbean and Atlantic ain't done yet with tropical systems in the East.

 

3.png

Y202010.D1412_gl2.png

 

Y202010.D1412_gl0.png

I cannot remember seeing such deep negative departures on a JMA map as I see on that d3-d9. Wow. I see you 13-14, and prolly 77/78/79 coldness too.

The great temp regime flip of Oct. 2013..

2013 Oct Temp Departs.jpg

  • Like 4

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

geez. Can't believe we are already talking snow maps. Where'd autumn go?? We still have some down here but one thing's for sure, contrasts have been epic between the warm and mild stretches, and the flipping to opposite. Now, if we could get a storm to make use of that during the winter it'd be awesome.

As a result of the crazy temp swings, I've noticed it has been much more windier this season so far.  Jet stream is strengthening due to temp contrasts...and...voila!  This autumn is stark reminder of how it (IMO) should be.  We had a very nice Sept, some Indian Summer wx, followed by strong CF's, clippers, wintry precip and just waiting for a wound up storm.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Tom said:

As a result of the crazy tempo swings, I've noticed it has been much more windier this season so far.  Jet stream is strengthening due to temp contrasts...and...voila!  This autumn is stark reminder of how it (IMO) should be.  We had a very nice Sept, some Indian Summer wx, followed by strong CF's, clippers, wintry precip and just waiting for a wound up storm.

True dat!!

 

  • Like 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Looks like I've been placed in a freeze warning for tonight.  I'm currently in a frost advisory but have only gotten to 36.

 

 

Guess I will be joining the freeze party over here as well..

Quote

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1106 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020

We will have to go with a frost advisory and/or freeze warning for
tonight. The inland extent of the lake effect cloud cover will be
key, but it seems the air coming in will be fairly dry. Freezing
temperatures will be most likely east of US-131 with patchy
frost or freezing temperatures near/west of US-131. Areas within a
dozen or so miles of Lake Michigan, with clouds and increased
wind speeds, are unlikely to freeze.

 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure when this happened, but I just realized the RGEM (RDPS now) switched from a 48 hour model to 84 hours, which is pretty cool.  Almost all models are now showing an area of precip moving through Iowa on Sunday.  Some have rain, some have snow. 

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 4
  • Sad 1
  • Snow 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Models really can't lock into any particular pattern long term.  The Euro has been robust with a southeast ridge and plenty of rain along a slow-moving front in our region.  The new 12z run reversed all that and is much more progressive.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

BAM! Lows tanite dipping imby into the 20s for the first time this season. Whooohooooooo!!!

Freeze Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
211 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-161300-
/O.NEW.KDTX.FZ.W.0004.201016T0800Z-201016T1300Z/
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-
Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-
Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Midland, Bay City, Bad Axe, Saginaw,
Caro, Sandusky, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell,
Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
211 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures falling at or slightly below 32 degrees
  across the majority of southeast Michigan will lead to
  widespread frost late tonight.

* WHERE...All of southeast Michigan.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.

  • Like 1
  • Excited 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, james1976 said:

Man, Des Moines has gotten lame with their AFD's lately. Very short and not much for details. They do mention a possible mix sat nite but no accumulation.

They are probably bored with this weather pattern, kind of like I am. Ha Looking like it will get more interesting though.😊

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

NWS is forecasting a low of 32° here, but that doesn’t mean the end of lawn mowing though it’s barely growing here with the dry weather. Also want to keep chopping up/ mulching the leaves 🍁 with the mower a number of times.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I just need a 20 mile shift South for tomorrow night's storm.

  • Like 2
  • Popcorn 1
  • Snow 1

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.7"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Last night's gusty south winds were causing serious "leaf squall" on I-94 after work. Very impressive autumn phenomena

  • Like 5

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd be stoked for a serious clipper hit if it were winter. Awesome ingredients coming together.

Quote

-- Showers and storms Friday evening --

We will be in the core of the upper level trough on Friday, with the
polar jet well to our south. Steep lapse rates averaging 8 C/km
between the surface and 550 mb (roughly to 15,000 feet, -30 C) will
be in place for much of the day. Lake surface to 850 mb delta-T of
about 16-18 C will support lake effect convection, but dry air will
limit convective cloud depth for much of the day. Better low-level
moisture is expected to cross the lake, in tandem with a weak
embedded shortwave which is now moving through Sask/Dakotas, late
Friday afternoon and evening. Convective-allowing models are in
agreement this should set off cells or line segments of showers and
thunderstorms which will be enhanced by the lake and move across
much of Lower Michigan during the late evening. Small hail would
likely accompany a number of these showers/storms.

 

  • Like 1
  • Snow 2
  • Storm 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Ten years ago, back on Oct 7-8th 2000, I was shocked to learn that the Chicago southern burbs got rocked by lake effect thundersnow which then lead to a "December to Remember" and a bonafide cold season.  Coincidentally, that is right about the time when the LRC sets up.

https://wgntv.com/weather/weather-blog/a-thundersnow-event-that-happened-around-october-7-8-2000-in-the-south-suburbs/

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Woah, last nights 00z EPS got friggin' cold and its sniffing out something coming out of the GOM and phasing with digging polar jet stream in and around the OHV/GL's  around Day 9/10.  I'm flabbergasted at what I'm seeing the models are showing later next week.  Wild pattern forthcoming.  Before we get there, however, in the near term there is a potential for snow flakes flying nearby this weekend into Monday off some of the models.

1.png

 

 

00z Ukie...

 sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

06z NAM...

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

06z RGEM...

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 2
  • Snow 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

It appears we hovered in the mid 30s all night and did not freeze, but I did just see the first snow flurries of the season.

  • Like 3
  • Snow 3

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

I had a brief shower of 0.01" yesterday just the clearing came in. I also had the first freeze of the season here at my house with a low of 29. At this time there is some frost and the temperature is 32 with clear skies.
 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

First flake: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

  • Like 1
  • Snow 3

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.7"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Received a surprise dusting overnight.

1016200807_HDR.jpg

  • Like 6
  • Snow 2

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.7"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Frost to be seen everywhere. Temps dropped to 30F, but places just to my north were in the 20s. First subfreezing temps of the season.

Currently at 38F w sunny skies.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Btw: The slight warm-up that was forecasted for next week (60s) is now long gone and replaced by 50s, along w dreary weather.

 

FWIW: I just saw my local forecast on my app and its advertising some flakes around my area. Some scattered showers in the afternoon and this evening could possibility mix w some graupel (snow pellets), which would be the first official wintry precipitation of the season. Hope that is all I get.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

The NAMs are far enough South now to the point where I'm mostly snow through the entire event, minus the first couple of hours. The only issue is that regardless, I'll probably be >32 the entire time.

  • Like 1
  • Snow 1

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.7"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

NAMNEST for tonight into tomorrow.

NAMNSTNGP_prec_kuchsnow_031.png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.7"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Tom said:

Bust here as well with temps as I only dipped into the mid 30's (35F)...barely any frost from the very dry air and low DP's....

A full 6 hrs AOB freezing here at the airport with a min of 29F on a couple observations. Freeze in the bag for Marshall which out-performed original grid-cast of 33F nicely. Next up is scoring mixed precip as Niko mentioned.

  • Like 2

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS actually brings the heaviest totals South of here.

Lol.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.7"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Tom unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...