October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[MossMan]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I looked at that last week.  From November until the first sign of a change to could weather, he was talking about how the ski areas should be worried, and that there was no end in sight to the warm and dry weather.  

Meanwhile we were full out weenie mode on the forum starting in late November! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

That was most likely January 2012! It stayed all snow up here but King Co south had tons of ice! I remember driving to work in the massive snow and having the emergency alert tones going off on all of the radio stations to alert of the big ice storm! That was a great event! 

How much snow did you guys get out of the 2012 event?

[MossMan]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

How much snow did you guys get out of the 2012 event?

About 17” if I remember correctly. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2012_Pacific_Northwest_snowstorm

Fun fact about that 2012 storm,  A hurricane-force wind warning was issued for offshore Oregon.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I have been noticing that a consistent theme with all the recent model runs is that Alaska is getting anomalously cold.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I have been noticing that a consistent theme with all the recent model runs is that Alaska is getting anomalously cold.  

It's the beginning

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 3

[snow_wizard]

It appears PDX picked up their earliest sub 30 low temp since 1949 today.  It also looks like Eugene picked up their earliest min below 24 in the period of record (since 1938).  Pretty D**n impressive!

Needless to say I was very disappointed about the second half of last night up here.  We were totally on track for an historic cold night for this early and then solid clouds ruined the second half of the night.  So far tonight is the same.

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

It's the beginning

I like where we're at.  Two historic cold waves in the Western US already this season (the fist one was largely east of us).  To see two periods of such extreme blocking so early in the season bodes pretty well for winter I would think.

[snow_wizard]

35 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That was most likely January 2012! It stayed all snow up here but King Co south had tons of ice! I remember driving to work in the massive snow and having the emergency alert tones going off on all of the radio stations to alert of the big ice storm! That was a great event! 

That was a very interesting one.  We had a big ice storm bookended with decent snowfalls.  After a fairly long period of freezing rain the wind shifted to NW and brought in a deeper pool of cold air which turned the rain to snow again and we picked a quick couple of inches.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[snow_wizard]

45 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I think it was 08 or maybe 12 when it turned to freezing rain and we had 0.5-.75 inch of ice on top of the snow. We didn't have power for almost a week. I much rather have it stay snow this time. 

Yeah....ice kind of sucks.  My area is fairly prone to it in some cases.

[TT-SEA]

Nice Halloween per the 00Z ECMWF...

 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 5

This is going to give the models fits.  So many conflicting signals.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Phil]

32 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I have been noticing that a consistent theme with all the recent model runs is that Alaska is getting anomalously cold.  

Alaska vortex/+EPO teleconnects to warmth in the PNW (and most of the country, for that matter).

Thankfully I don’t think this zonal regime is going to last more than a few weeks (unlike last winter). There’s poleward -AAM transport ongoing w/ tropical deposition, which should culminate in blocking/anticyclonic wavebreaking by late November. I think?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[snow_wizard]

15 hours ago, jakerepp said:

So what you're saying is 49-50 is an analog for this year? 

Cool!

It was a strong first year Nina and had an early cold snap in October.  I'm not sure what the QBO was that season since the records only go back to 1953 or so on that.

[snow_wizard]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

Alaska vortex/+EPO teleconnects to warmth in the PNW (and most of the country, for that matter).

Thankfully I don’t think this zonal regime is going to last more than a few weeks (unlike last winter). There’s poleward -AAM transport ongoing w/ tropical deposition, which should culminate in blocking/anticyclonic wavebreaking by late November. I think?

I wouldn't be surprised to see a very lame period followed by the hammer dropping...something like 2008 or similar type years.  Should be a fun season.

[snow_wizard]

The cloud forecast feature on the models still has a long way to go to be accurate.  They did terrible on the cloud cover for the second half of last night and tonight.  Much cloudier than was forecast in both cases here.  Too bad it appears the remaining low level cold is going to go to waste here tonight with no clearing to allow for radiational cooling.  Still a good cold snap, but more clearing last night and tonight would have made it better.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Patience

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Patience

is definitely required right now.

6z GFS in 2 hours 13 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

12:26 AM Temp 33.8, Dewpoint 22.1, Wind CALM, Skies CLEAR. Near west Gresham.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

32F in Springfield and 33F at EUG. DP still at 28F so frost forming up. Freeze #5 and we're still in October.

[snow_wizard]

24 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Patience

Absolutely.  We're in good shape.  A pretty dull November is probably more likely than not given the context.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

32F in Springfield and 33F at EUG. DP still at 28F so frost forming up. Freeze #5 and we're still in October.

You're doing well on low temps.  We have had way more clouds up here.  Thankfully last night dropped below freezing before the clouds arrived.

[snow_wizard]

I know this is really late to be posting this, but I finally checked to see what the average temperature was for the Puget Sound Lowlands in February 2019.  It ended up at 34.1 which was the 4th coldest since 1895.  Only 1929, 1936, and 1989 averaged colder.  Definitely the crown jewel of the 2010s for the Puget Sound Region.

It's pretty hard to say we haven't had some decent winters in recent years when you couple this with 2016-17 which was quite awesome in NW OR, and at least solid up here.

[Gradient Keeper]

*My first official freeze of Fall 2020*

2:50 AM Temp 31.8, Dewpoint 21.9, Wind CALM, Skies CLEAR. Near west Gresham

12z ECMWF in 7 hours 55 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

How low will it go?

3:06 AM Temp 31.4, Dewpoint 20.8. Near west Gresham. C'MON!!!!

12z GFS in 5 hours 22 minutes

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

29F in Springfield. The upcoming weather may be benign but I'll keep these synthwave tunes rolling during the night shift regardless.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

It was a strong first year Nina and had an early cold snap in October.  I'm not sure what the QBO was that season since the records only go back to 1953 or so on that.

It was +QBO upon reconstruction.

But it might not be the best analog overall since it had a cold IO/-PMM and SSTA/OHC maximum at 120E. 

[The Swamp]

43 here in the swamp

 

[FroYoBro]

Sitting at 31 this morning. Colder than yesterday at this time since clouds showed up then. 

[El_Nina]

Low of 27 here. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 hours ago, MossMan said:

That was most likely January 2012! It stayed all snow up here but King Co south had tons of ice! I remember driving to work in the massive snow and having the emergency alert tones going off on all of the radio stations to alert of the big ice storm! That was a great event! 

I had just moved to Seattle from Portland, and that event struck me as a very Portland-like storm, basically a mini version of Dec 2008: snow turning into a major ice storm (of the sort Seattle rarely gets) then back into snow again. Also was an epic forecast bust, as the ice storm was predicted to be mild rain and the start of the big meltoff. Oopsie!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, El_Nina said:

Low of 27 here. 

Low of 41°F here. Bellingham does tend to get hit by the onshore flow fairly early in the process, definitely earlier than the Portland area, which tends to be delayed both in starting and ending times compared to us.

[TacomaWaWx]

Much warmer low of 44 this morning. 

[El_Nina]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Low of 41°F here. Bellingham does tend to get hit by the onshore flow fairly early in the process, definitely earlier than the Portland area, which tends to be delayed both in starting and ending times compared to us.

I think the coast range and the gorge keep western Oregon sheltered from that longer than up there.