October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Low of 41°F here. Bellingham does tend to get hit by the onshore flow fairly early in the process, definitely earlier than the Portland area, which tends to be delayed both in starting and ending times compared to us.

Not sure its about the offshore vs onshore... its about the clouds across most of western WA in this weak warm front pattern.

'Low to mid 40s across most of the Seattle area too...

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Gfs and euro both seem to be in decent agreement over the next week. Seems like the system on Friday has been trending weaker. Both seem to point to some decent rain finally showing up in about a week but the euro is rainier in the 7-10 day period. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Gfs and euro both seem to be in decent agreement over the next week. Seems like the system on Friday has been trending weaker. Both seem to point to some decent rain finally showing up in about a week but the euro is rainier in the 7-10 day period. 

FWIW... the 00Z EPS was quite dry for WA and OR over the next 15 days.

 

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z EPS shows a huge ridge next week... which evolves into a trough over the western US the following week.

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

7 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Patience

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErvgV4P6Fzc

 

[TT-SEA]

Here is the entire loop from the 00Z EPS:

 

[TacomaWaWx]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the 00Z EPS was quite dry for WA and OR over the next 15 days.

 

Eventually the firehose is going to turn on. We avoided the firehose pattern until mid December last year...we will see how long it takes for us to get a decent storm track going. Like some others have said the past couple weeks I wouldn’t be surprised if we got really wet like we did in late fall 2006. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

If those ridgy models verify and are sufficiently mild at the surface, I think it will be hard to resist the temptation to do a quickie camping outing next week.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Eventually the firehose is going to turn on. We avoided the firehose pattern until mid December last year...we will see how long it takes for us to get a decent storm track going. Like some others have said the past couple weeks I wouldn’t be surprised if we got really wet like we did in late fall 2006. 

I sure there will be really wet periods... but its possible that we continue with the blocky theme with alternating wet and dry periods.

[Blizzard777]

44* cloudy Federal Way

30* light amber clear skies SE PDX 

[MossMan]

42 with very light dribbles currently. 

[FroYoBro]

Just made it to the 20’s for the first time this season. 
 

29.8! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like I nailed my prediction of lows overachieving in Western Oregon. Honestly it was an easy call. Clear skies, light winds, DP in the 20s, no way lows were going to stay up in the mid 30s.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

42 with very light dribbles currently. 

I recommend seeing a urologist.

[MossMan]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I recommend seeing a urologist.

Well Mt St Helens had a full top until I was a few years old so I am getting quite old. Not as old as Jim and Tim...Or Matt but I’m still getting up there. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well Mt St Helens had a full top until I was a few years old so I am getting quite old. Not as old as Jim and Tim...Or Matt but I’m still getting up there. 

Getting older sucks but it beats the only alternative.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Coldest 5 min obs for these locations this morning:

PDX 30

SLE 28

EUG 27

[MossMan]

Possible downward signal around the second week of November. 

[Jesse]

Beautiful frosty morning here. Hit a low of 28 which makes for back to back 20s. 30 currently.

Nice to see PDX score another freeze too.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Possible downward signal around the second week of November. 

Tank it just in time for the back half of the month when prime time begins.

[jakerepp]

48 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Getting older sucks but it beats the only alternative.

Being Benjamin Button?

[TacomaWaWx]

Weather is looking decent this weekend. Little bit of rain Friday then the rest of the weekend looks really good up north. Can’t wait to take some photos.

[GHweatherChris]

Anything is possible,  it's 2020!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS is very close to a Fraser River blast about day 10.

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z GFS is very close to a Fraser River blast about day 10.

Blocky!  

[BLI snowman]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z GFS is very close to a Fraser River blast about day 10.

Overrunning!! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Overrunning!! 

Lock it in Boys

[Fircrest]

1 hour ago, Jesse said:

Beautiful frosty morning here. Hit a low of 28 which makes for back to back 20s. 30 currently.

Nice to see PDX score another freeze too.

Sounds nice! I am very disappointed not to get a freeze out of this somewhat historic cold snap

44 with clouds this morning.

[Jesse]

13 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

Sounds nice! I am very disappointed not to get a freeze out of this somewhat historic cold snap

44 with clouds this morning.

Wow, can't believe its been so mild up there. The south/north gradient has been utterly insane the last few days.

I'm sure your guys' time will come.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z GFS is very close to a Fraser River blast about day 10.

Last year we had a September blast and an October blast, so it’s definitely possible for two of them to follow in fairly quick succession early in the season.

[Front Ranger]

What was looking like an extended boring stretch in the mid to long range suddenly got a lot more interesting with the 12z models. Let's hope the Euro follows suit.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

What was looking like an extended boring stretch in the mid to long range suddenly got a lot more interesting with the 12z models. Let's hope the Euro follows suit.

The next seven days look pretty bland.  I thought you never looked past that?

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The next seven days look pretty bland.  I thought you never looked past that?

True, but at least there is now potential for a sooner change to a more interesting pattern.

10 days. I never look past 10 days, except the ensembles.

[TT-SEA]

Cloudy all night and now already sunny... 

 

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Cloudy all night and now already sunny... 

 

Mmm, that makes for a perfect Timp... I mean temp combo!

[Deweydog]

Hard to believe that a week from now it will be 9:42 a.m.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Hard to believe that a week from now it will be 9:42 a.m.

Wow... is that this weekend already??

Early model runs!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This winter is going to mean something folks!

[Jesse]

Could be better, but not bad.

 

Looks like things could get a little more active around Election Day.

[Jesse]

There is also growing support for another cool (albeit mostly dry) shot of air around Halloween.