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November 2020 Observations and Discussion


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Crazy to think that just a week ago we were in the 70's all week! This turned out to be quite the ice storm to say the least. Ice accretion is around .5-.75" and trees are breaking like match sticks.

Came to West Virginia last week and have been here since. I’ve been lucky to have a lot of time off with Covid. It’s easily the most beautiful place I’ve ever been. Too bad the storm wiped most of the

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I'll take another cold rain to tighten precip defecit. LNK is only at 21.93" for the year, which is relatively high due to a wet May-July. OMA is at 16.03"! I'd definitely want a flip to more wintry after Thanksgiving through, December in recent years has been infamous for big rainers. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

2020-21: 2.9" (so far)

 

Average: 25.9"

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Been at work so cannot even see outside, but nice to see a forecast not fall apart.

980mb low is centered just northeast of Sault Ste Marie as of
19z...which is about where and to the depth that is was forecast.
Expect it to continue to drop in pressure this evening. Strong
pressure gradient remains in place across the area this evening so
have made no change to the High Wind Warning. It continues through
1000pm. Statewide power outages are now closing in on a quarter of
a million at 202,086 as of 256pm per poweroutage.us. We are
routinely gusting to around or above 50 mph at this time and
expect this to remain the case into the evening hours as the core
of the wind is moving through. Peak wind remains 68 mph at a
mesonet in Norton Shores and we have recently had a gust to 66
mph at a mesonet in Jackson as of 314pm. Bottom line High Wind
Warning is working out well and remains in place.
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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Current wind speed at 30mph w gusts as high as 50. Temp is at 40F. Wcf in the upper 20s. Skies are overcast.

Stepped out of work about 9:15 pm just in time to catch a pretty decent snow shower. It was coming down good but brief and very wet snow. All the models showing a change-over far south in the Mitt were off a bit on their thermals. WWA for NWMI is happening as usual, ofc they have both elevation and climo in their favor. I still like as a step-down to #winter.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Looks like a ridge is coming after this coldsnap next week.

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/PatternLateWeek.jpg?w=632

Yeah, looks like all the models of a big snowstorm were majorly wrong. But almost every analog produces a warm to very warm November, so not shocking really.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I’m back...Yet another windy day after a measly 0.11” of rain overnight. Heard thunder nearby one time the previous evening. Rainfall from last Tuesday’s thunder showers amounted to only 0.73” here. A mild November is making up for a chilly October. 

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54 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Yeah, looks like all the models of a big snowstorm were majorly wrong. But almost every analog produces a warm to very warm November, so not shocking really.

I'd say, save the best for December and beyond. 😉

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As many of noted (including myself), this autumn certainly has delivered many windy days.  IMO, it's a way nature provides us clues going forward.  The atmosphere is churning up.  Here are some stats from LOT that show this has been a windier than normal autumn.

1.png

 

 

MDW peak gust from yesterday up to 69 mph!  

2.png

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00z EPS suggesting a ribbon of heavy precip a bit farther S than the GEFS for the weekend system...at least there will be more moisture coming to those who need it...

1.png

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_31.png

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58 minutes ago, Tom said:

00z EPS suggesting a ribbon of heavy precip a bit farther S than the GEFS for the weekend system...at least there will be more moisture coming to those who need it...

1.png

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_31.png

The pattern has turned much wetter the last couple of weeks in my area.  I am much more optimistic about winter going forward than I was in Oct.

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32 minutes ago, Niko said:

Iota is a monster! On the verge of being a CAT5.

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/20203210130-20203210940-GOES16-ABI-AL312020-13-1000x1000-1.gif?w=632

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/page-25-1.jpg?w=632

 

 

What a year for the Tropics...2020 continues to deliver an anomalous year in the wx dept....

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Snoozefest for here on just about every model and ensemble member.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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55 minutes ago, Niko said:

Iota is a monster! On the verge of being a CAT5.

Yep, it is a pretty impressive late-season burst of action in the Caribbean.  The water down there is always plenty warm for tropical cyclones, but this year's shear-reducing la nina and a favorable pattern has led to what we're seeing.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Dang things don't look good for me being able to snowboard all November. I'm getting fat from this huge gap between water and snow sports. I just need a dry 30 hour spell in the mid 20s or colder and none of this 60 degree plus stuff.

I feel like this winter is already turning into "one really good month in February and the rest sucks"

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Yep, it is a pretty impressive late-season burst of action in the Caribbean.  The water down there is always plenty warm for tropical cyclones, but this year's shear-reducing la nina and a favorable pattern has led to what we're seeing.

This has been a unpresedented "Tropical Season." Crazy stuff!

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

What a year for the Tropics...2020 continues to deliver an anomalous year in the wx dept....

I just wonder how far "The Names" will carry out to. At this rate, might as well finish the list. Unimaginable year for the tropics!

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Attm, 42F w mostly cloudy skies and still a little breezy out there, but nowhere near yesterdays ferocious wind gusts. 

 

Btw: Detroit yesterday had a wind gust of 61mph and 65 in nearby locales. Lots of power outrages and trees down.

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A little snow tanite could whiten up grassy surfaces and rooftops, just enough to get ya in the holiday spirit as a disturbance rolls on through. Temp will fall in the upper 20s for nighttime lows and much colder Tuesday w highs only in the low to mid 30s and lows upper teens to low 20s.

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Snow will develop tanite, w temps dropping into the upper 20s. Per radar, its coming......minor accumulations, if any, (mainly grassy surfaces). Its a quick mover also.

Jaster....this outta put you in the mood for decorating your Christmas lights outside your property....😉

https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/wu/wxtype/county_loc/day/animate.png

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5 hours ago, Niko said:

Snow will develop tanite, w temps dropping into the upper 20s. Per radar, its coming......minor accumulations, if any, (mainly grassy surfaces). Its a quick mover also.

Jaster....this outta put you in the mood for decorating your Christmas lights outside your property....😉

https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/wu/wxtype/county_loc/day/animate.png

Just encountered some flurries after work. But hey, that's back-2-back commutes home with snow falling. Winter is making itself felt, whether the tropics want to give up yet or not, lol.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, Money said:

Go Kuchera this time of year. Much more realistic imho

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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This will happen cuz TOL_Weather defected north

 

20201117 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_fh360-384.gif

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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PHX shattered the old record of 89F and peaked at 92F!  This also set the all-time record for the latest 90F+ temp this late in the year.  Incredible.  I had to flip the A/C on by mid afternoon and will prob need it for the next few days.  We should break another record high today and likely extend the latest 90F+ temp ever recorded one more day, possibly two.   

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Looks like Ryan Maue created some news winter maps off the EPS for the coming winter season.  Last night's 00z EPS showing some snow for some of you.  It is trending a bit farther South in terms of track.

1.png 

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The over night low here was 31 the official low at the airport was 32. Light snow was reported at GRR and here at my house there was 0.01" of water in the rain gauge but I did not see any snow fall. The water in the birdbath did ice over. At this time the skies are clear and the current reading is 34

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We are now past the half way point of November 2020. At this time the mean at Grand Rapids is 49.4° that is good for a departure of +6.5° While that mean will go down over the next two week it should be noted that the record warmest November at Grand Rapids in 1931 had a mean of 47.6° At this time it looks like November 2020 has a good chance of getting into a top 10 as the 10th warmest November come in at 43.9 and was set in 1902.

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27 minutes ago, james1976 said:

GFS now has a couple inches of snow across IA this weekend. ICON all rain.

ICON's always warm so marginal events will look more wet than white.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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33 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z GEFS mean, still a lot of spread on temps

1606111200-FQQacR1mS2Y.png

 

I would say around here we might be right on the edge for some wet snowflakes.  Depending on if it falls overnight or not.  Local forecasters have kind of been back and forth if any snow will actually fall.

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UK and Euro are really shifting the weekend system south, barely have any precip in Iowa.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 hours ago, bud2380 said:

GFS with Kuchera.  10:1 maps are significantly higher.  If this snow develops, it will be a narrow band it appears.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

The sig stuff is narrow but the swath is pretty typical

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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