November 2020 Observations and Discussion

[Niko 6813]

[james1976 3688]

12 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Only need that to go about 600 miles West and I'm in play!

Even further west on 0z run. Has snow in IA

[jaster220 8046]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Was thinking the same yesterday and today...should  be a great CO Low!

I may need to retract one part from my earlier post. If this were winter and we had enough cold air, we'd be in the midst of a pretty sizeable storm right now, with a potential blockbuster looming on the horizon. #1978stuff!

[jaster220 8046]

2 hours ago, Niko said:

GEM inching west on it's last 3 runs. I like that.

0z Euro is another big run, but not quite as good for the Mitt. I notice both it and the GFS depict the best snowfall SW of the SLP where the coldest air gets wrapped in. Again, this was seen in another early season bomb back in Nov 1950. And, like that epic storm, the best snows are being depicted down in Indiana and/or Ohio.

 

[Tom 15615]

7 hours ago, Sparky said:

December ’10 was pretty good here for snow with 11” total. The largest snowfall of that month was a well timed 6.5” on Christmas Eve day!

I can't remember what year it was, but there was a Christmas Eve storm that dumped some very high ratio snows (20:1+) ratio snow that was timed perfectly.  The NW burbs got hammered with 10" of snow and I think ORD received around 6" or so. Let's hope for some kind of repeat this year!

[Tom 15615]

Happy Thanksgiving Eve!  Looks like ORD picked up 0.7" of snow yesterday and the area received its 1st widespread accumulating snowfall of the season.  Is more on the horizon???  Boy, there are some eye candy model runs showing up and some blockbuster snow maps.  None moreso than last nights 00z Euro op...like @jaster220 mentioned, the models are flashing some fascinating individual model runs.  It's been decades since our region has seen a storm system as being depicted that bombs out and blocks up which spins for days.  In recent years, its always been a "tease" and just never worked out or the storm shifted NW.  Could we "flip the script" for 2020????

 

 

Analyzing the data farther, nearly every global model is honing in on a monster closed upper low centered near the Lower Lakes/OHV region.  Big uptick in the snow mean across this region.  Things are looking up!

 

Boy, doesn't this 500mb map resemble 2 fiery eyes, a nose and a mouth??  I see you...quiet the way to open up December...

 

[westMJim 1743]

Here at my house I had .8" of snow fall. There was a total of 0.47" in the rain gauge. Late yesterday afternoon there was a period of very large snow fakes. It was after that snow fall that I took the measurement. This morning of course the snow is all but  gone (there is still snow in spots) and the temperature is now up to 41 here. 

[Tom 15615]

Fired up a December thread...

https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/5990-december-2020-observations-and-discussion/&tab=comments#comment-652641

[Niko 6813]

Attm, its a mild 41F under some drizzle and mist.

[Niko 6813]

Per NOAA:

Potential for a potent winter system early next week when a northern
stream wave diving out of the Gulf of Alaska phases with a southern
stream wave drifting out of the Four Corners region. Latest Euro
comes into better agreement with the GFS with phasing more over the
Appalachians. Forecast offers a significant amount of QPF over the
region while wrapping around plenty of cold air. It will be something
to keep an eye on with still plenty of time to hash out details.

[Sparky 1506]

It’s nice to finally have a defo band sitting right overhead. If it would be snow it would be ripping!

[Niko 6813]

Explosive bomb! Somebody will get slammed really hard by this one.

[Stacsh 783]

GRR mentioned a big change is that the models are really backing off on cold air with the next complex system.  Which would kill any chance of big LE or LEH snow for Michigan.  

[Sparky 1506]

Radar was showing red overhead, but it’s not as heavy as it appears with mainly moderate rainfall rates.

[Tom 15615]

Just now, Sparky said:

Radar was showing red overhead, but it’s not as heavy as it appears with mainly moderate rainfall rates.

It could have been frozen precip that the radar was picking up on farther up in the atmosphere.  I've experienced this many times before.  I was also thinking the same thing earlier this morning when I took a gander at the radar loop showing a healthy defo band.  An impressive system to see cycle through in the future.

[bud2380 3033]

1 hour ago, Sparky said:

It’s nice to finally have a defo band sitting right overhead. If it would be snow it would be ripping!

I was thinking the same thing.  It would have been a glorious sight.  It's rare the pieces come together just right in this part of the country though.  Oh well, I'm enjoying the rain nonetheless.  

[whatitdo 105]

1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

GRR mentioned a big change is that the models are really backing off on cold air with the next complex system.  Which would kill any chance of big LE or LEH snow for Michigan.  

Hoping this doesn’t happen - cold air not being in place with a nice system is all too familiar for me! 

[bud2380 3033]

GFS continues to be an outlier with the next system, and all over the place.  I wouldn't put much stock in it right now.

 

[bud2380 3033]

Canadian on the 30th.

 

[bud2380 3033]

[jaster220 8046]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

Explosive bomb! Somebody will get slammed really hard by this one.

Can't remember the last time I saw a 500 mb map so deep in this region. Wow!

[CentralNebWeather 3772]

Missed again with most of the precipitation with this system.  The drum beat of drought marches on.  Very little to nothing in the extended.  

 

[jaster220 8046]

10 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

GEM has indeed pulled westward just enough to what I consider the ideal position for the Mitt. It also keeps the SLP trekking north like the earlier Euro runs. Much prefer that over it stalling out overhead and spinning on top of me. It is pretty stingy with the main snow swath and I'm wondering if that's a blip or indication of a lack of good snow growth.

[Sparky 1506]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

It could have been frozen precip that the radar was picking up on farther up in the atmosphere.  I've experienced this many times before.  I was also thinking the same thing earlier this morning when I took a gander at the radar loop showing a healthy defo band.  An impressive system to see cycle through in the future.

I thought the same thing and earlier was looking very closely for a few half melted flakes and thought I saw a few, but probably imagined it.

[Niko 6813]

43 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Can't remember the last time I saw a 500 mb map so deep in this region. Wow!

Me neither!

Blizzard1978 perhaps in the makings????? Bud, someone is in for alllotttaaaa snow!

[bud2380 3033]

12z Ukie also digging further south from the 00z run.  The 00z run actually threw some snow all the way back into Iowa, but that won't happen on this run.  

[Hawkeye 3845]

As someone posted earlier, radar shows "heavy" precip right over Cedar Rapids, but it's just a solid light to moderate rain.  Still, some models had trended toward keeping the defo zone mostly south of CR, so it's nice to see it lift far enough north to easily boost us over an inch of precip for the entire event.

A month later, CR might be getting several inches of snow from this.

[bud2380 3033]

Ukie is a total dud for snow this run.  

[Hawkeye 3845]

It appears Iowa will have to wait until at least mid December for any real winter storm action. 

[GDR 639]

Ukie no Likey

[Clinton 3628]

7 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

It appears Iowa will have to wait until at least mid December for any real winter storm action.

Hang on 3 or 4 more days and let the models process the blocking and pattern change that's on deck.  This always gives them fits, keep an eye out for energy to dive in to the western US around the 8th or so.

[jaster220 8046]

7 hours ago, Stacsh said:

GRR mentioned a big change is that the models are really backing off on cold air with the next complex system.  Which would kill any chance of big LE or LEH snow for Michigan.  

Yep. Horrible trends overnight. Without cold air, this will be DOA and the latest in sad model teases.

5 hours ago, Niko said:

Me neither!

Blizzard1978 perhaps in the makings????? Bud, someone is in for alllotttaaaa snow!

Gotta have cold air for that to happen amigo. Not gonna happen with the same marginal cold air we've just seen with our 2 snows. TBH, not looking good attm.

[Niko 6813]

18 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Yep. Horrible trends overnight. Without cold air, this will be DOA and the latest is sad model teases.

Gotta have cold air for that to happen amigo. Not gonna happen with the same marginal cold air we've just seen with our 2 snows. TBH, not looking good attm.

I agree., but don't forget, its days away...hopefully it can wrap around on some cold air. We will see what happens. By tomorrow or Friday, is when to really start paying more attn to models. In the meantime, sit back and enjoy the ride.

[jaster220 8046]

11 minutes ago, GDR said:

Ukie no Likey

Welp, 12z Ukie went dudsville on us. Cold won't come down and play. While some of the model maps of a bomb have been 1950 like, this has not been an historic cold November like that one was. The extreme opposite actually and thus have to question such a system even being realistic.

[Niko 6813]

Attm, its raining w temps in the 40s. Very raw, dreary, chilly late November day. Luv it!

[Stacsh 783]

I'll take the latest GEM for 100 Ken!  

[bud2380 3033]

Euro holds steady. Blasts Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan. Even Chicago gets hit pretty hard. 

[Tom 15615]

5 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Euro holds steady. Blasts Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan. Even Chicago gets hit pretty hard. 

Just an FYI, we have a December thread...

[Hawkeye 3845]

0.70" of rain this morning from the defo band, 1.30" precip total for the event.

[Niko 6813]

Looks like light rain has been persistent in mby. If I had to guess, I would say that about .25" has fallen. More heavier rain is on the way for later tanite, b4 it finally ends and clears the area.

[Sparky 1506]

Storm total precip. here is 1.95”. Right around 0.90” since midnight.

[CentralNebWeather 3772]

Well at least with this unbelievably crappy  pattern for the Central Plains, I will hold off on trading in my old snowblower for a new one. Have had issues the last 2 years, but will just look at the brown grass for several more weeks it looks like. 

[Grizzcoat 2897]

I got rid of mine years ago... No need other than maybe 2 events in a season. Doesn't earn the space/maintenance.

[CentralNebWeather 3772]

1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said:

I got rid of mine years ago... No need other than maybe 2 events in a season. Doesn't earn the space/maintenance.

I’m starting to think that way. It might make more sense to pay someone when it actually snows, which varies by the year. Going to need a massive pattern change in this region for any significant winter storms. 

[Clinton 3628]

Definitly time to flip this pattern.  NWS KC

Thru the first 24 days of this month...Nov 2020 stands as the 10th warmest on the 133-year record for KC. It has been 6.6 degrees above normal. With a cooler stretch to end the month (after Thanksgiving) we will drop on that list.

[Tom 15615]

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!  This year has been an unusual one, but as we celebrate the holiday today, I am ever so grateful to be alive, healthy and have such amazing family and friends....of course, I'm also grateful for all of you on here that contribute each and every day.  

 

 

[westMJim 1743]

First off Happy Thanksgiving!   With a mean temperature of 45.3 Grand Rapids is on track for one of the warmest Novembers in recorded history. At this time GR is in the 5th spot. It was a mild overnight and the official low at GRR was 41 and here at my house it was 42. and that 42 is the current temperature both here and out at the airport. I recorded another 0.33" of rain fall yesterday.

[Tom 15615]

Daylight is beginning to emerge over the mountains as I look out my window.  Coldest temps of the season have settled in across Arizona.  Currently a chilly 41F with clear skies. Heading up to near 70F today.

[Niko 6813]

Attm, its a balmy 45F under cloudy skies. Everything looks kinda damp outside.

[Niko 6813]

The weekend looks splendid w temps in the 40s under partly cloudy skies, although more clouds for Sunday, especially during the afternoon hours. All in all, a dry, weekend is in store w near seasonable temps, maybe slightly above average.