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November 2020 Observations and Discussion


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Crazy to think that just a week ago we were in the 70's all week! This turned out to be quite the ice storm to say the least. Ice accretion is around .5-.75" and trees are breaking like match sticks.

Came to West Virginia last week and have been here since. I’ve been lucky to have a lot of time off with Covid. It’s easily the most beautiful place I’ve ever been. Too bad the storm wiped most of the

1.41” of rain/freezing rain here so far. Crazy how much of a difference one or maybe two degrees make.  looking at my weather station, the temperature was between 31.6-32.2 all night long while we’v

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Was thinking the same yesterday and today...should  be a great CO Low!

I may need to retract one part from my earlier post. If this were winter and we had enough cold air, we'd be in the midst of a pretty sizeable storm right now, with a potential blockbuster looming on the horizon. #1978stuff!

20201125 12 am Surf.jpg

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 hours ago, Niko said:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2020112500/gem_asnow_us_26.png&key=a8e5a8f112c382f6e8888494cabe5703909ee7473b09e18f49d6e6a23e6df4af

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GEM inching west on it's last 3 runs. I like that.

0z Euro is another big run, but not quite as good for the Mitt. I notice both it and the GFS depict the best snowfall SW of the SLP where the coldest air gets wrapped in. Again, this was seen in another early season bomb back in Nov 1950. And, like that epic storm, the best snows are being depicted down in Indiana and/or Ohio.

 

20201125 0z Euro h150 SLP.png

20201125 0z Euro h180 SN SLR.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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7 hours ago, Sparky said:

December ’10 was pretty good here for snow with 11” total. The largest snowfall of that month was a well timed 6.5” on Christmas Eve day!

I can't remember what year it was, but there was a Christmas Eve storm that dumped some very high ratio snows (20:1+) ratio snow that was timed perfectly.  The NW burbs got hammered with 10" of snow and I think ORD received around 6" or so. Let's hope for some kind of repeat this year!

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Happy Thanksgiving Eve!  Looks like ORD picked up 0.7" of snow yesterday and the area received its 1st widespread accumulating snowfall of the season.  Is more on the horizon???  Boy, there are some eye candy model runs showing up and some blockbuster snow maps.  None moreso than last nights 00z Euro op...like @jaster220 mentioned, the models are flashing some fascinating individual model runs.  It's been decades since our region has seen a storm system as being depicted that bombs out and blocks up which spins for days.  In recent years, its always been a "tease" and just never worked out or the storm shifted NW.  Could we "flip the script" for 2020????

 

1.png

 

Analyzing the data farther, nearly every global model is honing in on a monster closed upper low centered near the Lower Lakes/OHV region.  Big uptick in the snow mean across this region.  Things are looking up!

3.png

 

Boy, doesn't this 500mb map resemble 2 fiery eyes, a nose and a mouth??  I see you...quiet the way to open up December...

2.png

 

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Here at my house I had .8" of snow fall. There was a total of 0.47" in the rain gauge. Late yesterday afternoon there was a period of very large snow fakes. It was after that snow fall that I took the measurement. This morning of course the snow is all but  gone (there is still snow in spots) and the temperature is now up to 41 here. 

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Per NOAA:

Potential for a potent winter system early next week when a northern
stream wave diving out of the Gulf of Alaska phases with a southern
stream wave drifting out of the Four Corners region. Latest Euro
comes into better agreement with the GFS with phasing more over the
Appalachians. Forecast offers a significant amount of QPF over the
region while wrapping around plenty of cold air. It will be something
to keep an eye on with still plenty of time to hash out details.
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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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Just now, Sparky said:

Radar was showing red overhead, but it’s not as heavy as it appears with mainly moderate rainfall rates.

It could have been frozen precip that the radar was picking up on farther up in the atmosphere.  I've experienced this many times before.  I was also thinking the same thing earlier this morning when I took a gander at the radar loop showing a healthy defo band.  An impressive system to see cycle through in the future.

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1 hour ago, Sparky said:

It’s nice to finally have a defo band sitting right overhead. If it would be snow it would be ripping!

I was thinking the same thing.  It would have been a glorious sight.  It's rare the pieces come together just right in this part of the country though.  Oh well, I'm enjoying the rain nonetheless.  

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Season Snowfall: 20.5"

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1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

GRR mentioned a big change is that the models are really backing off on cold air with the next complex system.  Which would kill any chance of big LE or LEH snow for Michigan.  

Hoping this doesn’t happen - cold air not being in place with a nice system is all too familiar for me! 

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Explosive bomb! Somebody will get slammed really hard by this one.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=https://m3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020112500/156/500h_anom.conus.png&key=d390b20d5bbefcf306b079d944d5808239efa0d869b176c711a1b251a2a1b60e

Can't remember the last time I saw a 500 mb map so deep in this region. Wow!

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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10 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

gem_asnow_ncus_27.png

GEM has indeed pulled westward just enough to what I consider the ideal position for the Mitt. It also keeps the SLP trekking north like the earlier Euro runs. Much prefer that over it stalling out overhead and spinning on top of me. It is pretty stingy with the main snow swath and I'm wondering if that's a blip or indication of a lack of good snow growth.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

It could have been frozen precip that the radar was picking up on farther up in the atmosphere.  I've experienced this many times before.  I was also thinking the same thing earlier this morning when I took a gander at the radar loop showing a healthy defo band.  An impressive system to see cycle through in the future.

I thought the same thing and earlier was looking very closely for a few half melted flakes and thought I saw a few, but probably imagined it.

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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 17.7”

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43 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Can't remember the last time I saw a 500 mb map so deep in this region. Wow!

Me neither!

Blizzard1978 perhaps in the makings????? Bud, someone is in for alllotttaaaa snow!❄️

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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As someone posted earlier, radar shows "heavy" precip right over Cedar Rapids, but it's just a solid light to moderate rain.  Still, some models had trended toward keeping the defo zone mostly south of CR, so it's nice to see it lift far enough north to easily boost us over an inch of precip for the entire event.

A month later, CR might be getting several inches of snow from this.

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season snowfall: 23.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It appears Iowa will have to wait until at least mid December for any real winter storm action. 🙁

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season snowfall: 23.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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7 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

It appears Iowa will have to wait until at least mid December for any real winter storm action.

Hang on 3 or 4 more days and let the models process the blocking and pattern change that's on deck.  This always gives them fits, keep an eye out for energy to dive in to the western US around the 8th or so.

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7 hours ago, Stacsh said:

GRR mentioned a big change is that the models are really backing off on cold air with the next complex system.  Which would kill any chance of big LE or LEH snow for Michigan.  

Yep. Horrible trends overnight. Without cold air, this will be DOA and the latest in sad model teases.

5 hours ago, Niko said:

Me neither!

Blizzard1978 perhaps in the makings????? Bud, someone is in for alllotttaaaa snow!❄️

Gotta have cold air for that to happen amigo. Not gonna happen with the same marginal cold air we've just seen with our 2 snows. TBH, not looking good attm.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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18 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Yep. Horrible trends overnight. Without cold air, this will be DOA and the latest is sad model teases.

Gotta have cold air for that to happen amigo. Not gonna happen with the same marginal cold air we've just seen with our 2 snows. TBH, not looking good attm.

I agree., but don't forget, its days away...hopefully it can wrap around on some cold air. We will see what happens. By tomorrow or Friday, is when to really start paying more attn to models. In the meantime, sit back and enjoy the ride.😉

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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11 minutes ago, GDR said:

Ukie no Likey

Welp, 12z Ukie went dudsville on us. Cold won't come down and play. While some of the model maps of a bomb have been 1950 like, this has not been an historic cold November like that one was. The extreme opposite actually and thus have to question such a system even being realistic.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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0.70" of rain this morning from the defo band, 1.30" precip total for the event.

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season snowfall: 23.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Looks like light rain has been persistent in mby. If I had to guess, I would say that about .25" has fallen. More heavier rain is on the way for later tanite, b4 it finally ends and clears the area.

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Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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I got rid of mine years ago... No need other than maybe 2 events in a season. Doesn't earn the space/maintenance.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said:

I got rid of mine years ago... No need other than maybe 2 events in a season. Doesn't earn the space/maintenance.

I’m starting to think that way. It might make more sense to pay someone when it actually snows, which varies by the year. Going to need a massive pattern change in this region for any significant winter storms. 

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Definitly time to flip this pattern.  NWS KC

Thru the first 24 days of this month...Nov 2020 stands as the 10th warmest on the 133-year record for KC. It has been 6.6 degrees above normal. With a cooler stretch to end the month (after Thanksgiving) we will drop on that list.

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Happy Thanksgiving everyone!  This year has been an unusual one, but as we celebrate the holiday today, I am ever so grateful to be alive, healthy and have such amazing family and friends....of course, I'm also grateful for all of you on here that contribute each and every day.  

Thanksgiving 2018 images

 

 

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First off Happy Thanksgiving!   With a mean temperature of 45.3 Grand Rapids is on track for one of the warmest Novembers in recorded history. At this time GR is in the 5th spot. It was a mild overnight and the official low at GRR was 41 and here at my house it was 42. and that 42 is the current temperature both here and out at the airport. I recorded another 0.33" of rain fall yesterday.

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Daylight is beginning to emerge over the mountains as I look out my window.  Coldest temps of the season have settled in across Arizona.  Currently a chilly 41F with clear skies. Heading up to near 70F today.

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The weekend looks splendid w temps in the 40s under partly cloudy skies, although more clouds for Sunday, especially during the afternoon hours. All in all, a dry, weekend is in store w near seasonable temps, maybe slightly above average.

Snowfall as of today:  Jan, 2021: 15.1"

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