Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: It's stuck at hr 36 on WB. Do you realize what this means? !!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: That's a great idea. How well is that working out thus far? Not well in 2020. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 I see lots of offshore flow and east wind ahead... seems like early December is a prime time for that and of course I love it. Plenty of sunshine and dry weather for pre-Christmas activities. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 Gfs is pretty dry after tomorrow’s system. Pretty good run of wet weather here the last 3 weeks. Have had rain 19 out of the last 21 days...will be 20 for 22 tomorrow. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 32 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: A lot of east wind on this run. Better than nothing. Looks like the GEM is having problems running on Pivotal and Tidbits. At least for me.... It’s puking baby material. It could be worse. This is what we want to see early in the season during a nina. everything is fine. im sure it won’t last long. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I see lots of offshore flow and east wind ahead... seems like early December is a prime time for that and of course I love it. Plenty of sunshine and dry weather for pre-Christmas activities. YES! Cold pool time! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 When looking at the GFS Ensembles the past 6-8 runs for the Columbia Basin (Yakima, Pasco, Moses Lake) I notice the GFS is trending towards the much colder GEM with the inversion/cold pool. C'MON!!!! 00z ECMWF in 6 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 Here's what the first 13 days of December 2008 looked like... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 12 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: It’s puking baby material. It could be worse. This is what we want to see early in the season during a nina. everything is fine. im sure it won’t last long. -8C temp anomaly in January. Book it. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said: Here's what the first 13 days of December 2008 looked like... The first 13 days of the following December were a lot better. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 3 significant arctic blasts in 6 December’s 2008-2013. We didn’t know how good we had it. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 3 significant arctic blasts in 6 December’s 2008-2013. We didn’t know how good we had it. I don’t think we’ll see another until the next one. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I don’t think we’ll see another until the next one. Getting ready to celebrate 30 years since the last arctic express. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 00z ECMWF Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 00z WRF-GFS gusty east winds by Saturday evening. Likely a common theme as we move into the weekend and beyond. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 Back to the EURO Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 Day 6 At this point I would have more fun wiping my a** with a pitchfork. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 00z GEFS I mentioned I was looking for retrogression Day 10+ .... Well all hope is not lost. It's not ideal yet, but that's a retrogression signal. Would it continue beyond that point? Who knows. Day 10-16 GIF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 .... and back to the EURO Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z GEFS I mentioned I was looking for retrogression Day 10+ .... Well all hope is not lost. It's not ideal yet, but that's a retrogression signal. Would it continue beyond that point? Who knows. Day 10-16 GIF Wonder what the gefs has for their 35 day extended run. Has anyone actually seen it? Wondering how it compares to the Euro weeklies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 The last few GFS runs clearly show a retrogression signal during the 10 to 16 period. Each time the trough re-digs over the North Pacific it ends up further west than the previous time. If that actually happens I'm thinking mid December for things to start getting interesting. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: .... and back to the EURO Day 7 That certainly looks capable of delivering a frosty night or two. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 Just now, snow_wizard said: The last few GFS runs clearly show a retrogression signal during the 10 to 16 period. Each time the trough re-digs over the North Pacific it ends up further west than the previous time. If that actually happens I'm thinking mid December for things to start getting interesting. Yeah after the ridge/inversion, cold pool regime it's coming. Write it down. Pen & Paper. Pencil sketch, Etch-a-Sketch. An oil painting. Historic Winter on the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 I got a wild prediction..... mid to late December it will snow 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Kind of like how it's dry Friday, system comes in overnight and exits by Saturday morning, and then it's dry again by Saturday afternoon. Good timing. Need to get a little bit more yard stuff done before we get into the thick of things. A couple years ago I didn't mow a final time before we got into prolonged rain and snow. My grass got long as hell and the snow took forever to cover it and get that pristine look. Never again. Need the grass short so only a couple inches can cover it, not four. Just in case we don't have a January 1950 repeat (which we undoubtedly will). I hear you. I have my back and side yards mowed really good. Just need to hit part of the front again. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 All ridges retrograde just like all lives matter. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 Day 9'er .... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Here's from D16 onward. Certainly not as good as the ECMWF weeklies as it doesn't hold onto the blocking over the Aleutians as strongly. The initial signal is there though around the 20th but gets muddled there after. Sometimes its just really wet in late December and it rains on most days. In fact that is pretty common. That is what that pattern looks like to me. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 Down to 34 under clear skies. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 Day 10 Aleutian trough starting to retrograde. 6z GFS in 2 hour 33 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 This Euro run shows a significant inversion next Tuesday. Widespread freezing low temps and high upper 30s and low 40s in a lot of places. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 10 Aleutian trough starting to retrograde. 6z GFS in 2 hour 33 minutes Kind of eye popping on the blocking there! Good retro candidate. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Wow that's dry for this time of year. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 Hopefully we can get some good snow in Mid December to get Snoqualmie Pass open Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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