Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110618/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110618/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110618/gfsp_asnow_us_23.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Check out the 12z EURO and 12z/18z Parallel GFS and it's scary how close they are... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 6, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Bastardi was getting at that in one of his discussions yesterday. The trough and ULL is placed too far east and will correct west. The low in Quebec or Ontario will acts to drag the cold air down in front of the Plains low. Probably good idea to pay attn to that feature...also, how many times have we seen the correction "west" with the models. @ Money, those GFS Parallel maps look good. Looks like a Wisco special in the works. It looks like it did jog a tad south this run. Share some love! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Did barely jog south. 12z: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110612/gfsp_asnow_us_27.png 18z http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110618/gfsp_asnow_us_23.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Keep coming south. NWS Hastings says just flurries. They make NWS Omaha/Valley seem liberal. Well we will keep tracking it but I like the way it is progressing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 NW burbs of Milwaukee would get a good dumping on the 18z parallel. I have a feeling Madison is going to do pretty good on accumulation with this system. They usually do early in the season. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 This was from the Sioux Falls NWO- it looks like they prefer the Canadian/GFS vs the Euro at this point CONCERNING PRECIPITATION...LOOKING AT THE 850MB TEMPERATURES OFFOF THE THREE MODELS...IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY APPARENT THATTHE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE IS GOING TO BE MOSTLY SNOW. THE ONLYEXCEPTION MAY BE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SIOUX CITY WHOMIGHT BE A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THUSMAKING SNOW TOTALS A QUESTION MARK THERE. THE ECMWF DOES ALSOKEEP MOST OF THE DECENT PRECIP POTENTIAL CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERNZONES...WHEREAS THE GEM GLOBAL AND GFS KIND OF SLOWLY SHIFT THEMAIN QPF BAND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGHMONDAY WHICH IS PROBABLY BETTER THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS SHOWING.THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS STRONG SUGGESTING A BANDEDEVENT...THAT SAID THE ECMWF IS RATHER FRAGMENTED AND DISJOINTEDWITH THE FRONTOGENETIC OUTPUT AND HARD TO FOLLOW. THE GFS AND GEMGLOBAL ARE LIKELY BETTER...OOZING THE BAND SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHTAND MONDAY. AS ALWAYS THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOWWILL THERE BE. CURRENTLY AT THIS EARLY HOUR...THE BEST STAB IS NOTTO RULE OUT 2 TO 4 INCHES...AT LEAST ON THE GRASSY SURFACES. WITHTHE RELATIVELY WARM GROUND WE HAVE HAD DUE TO A VERY MILDOCTOBER...THE ACCUMULATIONS ON PAVEMENT COULD BE REAL HARD TOASCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY IF THE SNOW RATE IS NOT ALL THAT HEAVY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 6, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 I'd say the northern 1/3rd of IA/S WI/C WI/S MN are in the prime zone right now for accumulating snowfall. C IA/N/IL/S MI is questionable at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 6, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 12z Euro Ensemble and Control...I will say that the southern extent of the snowfall on the ensemble run has grown farther south from previous runs. Both have been honing in on Wisco/MI special. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted November 6, 2014 Report Share Posted November 6, 2014 Did anyone use/Does anyone still use the old cyclone track charts off the EMC? Been using these things for 5 or so years now- so simplistic (and pretty messy), but still great tools for tracking storms. Here's the CMC ENS from the 12z cycle, note the relatively large spread/high uncertainty. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.ceperts.2014110612.east_coast.single.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Based on Climatology and Euro/GGEM consensus a Minnesota/Wisconsin special is probably the way to go. The GFS tends to have a progressive bias and will likely continue to correct north. Unless the arctic front can come earlier and really push this storm south I don't see a southern solution happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Thats great stuff Snowman-- thanks for sharing!! Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 GFS is throwing 7-8" at me. Bring it on. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 GFS is throwing 7-8" at me. Bring it on.All of the models show a really good track for you. Hope for no drastic shifts in the coming days lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 I'd say the northern 1/3rd of IA/S WI/C WI/S MN are in the prime zone right now for accumulating snowfall. C IA/N/IL/S MI is questionable at the moment. I found it kind of funny that Jim Ramsey of WGN chose the latest GFS snowfall map to show on air! This high pressure that is coming down in abnormally strong for November, so I wouldn't be surprise if the snow gets pushed further south with respect to where climatology says it "should" go this time of season. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Local met is now talking accumulating snow. Earlier today he said it wouldnt accumulate. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Another 50 miles south and we are all smiling! I would be frowning, though 50 miles south on the Para GFS run would work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 ARX (La Crosse) is favoring areas south of I-94 for heaviest snows. Accumulating Snow Looking Likely - Monday - Monday NightA low pressure system will bring accumulating snow to the area for Monday and Monday night. At this time, the heaviest snow looks to be south of Interstate 94. While there is certainty that this snow will occur, the amounts and location of the heaviest snow is not. Those with travel plans during this time period should monitor the weather closely through the weekend. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Local met is now talking accumulating snow. Earlier today he said it wouldnt accumulate. Lol I wouldn't worry too much about ground temps, especially in the Great Lakes region (the mild air of October didn't make it quite to the Lakes, and locally, the next few days are going to be in the 40s). Nebraska and South Dakota may be a different story, as Omaha looks to be in the 50s and even 60s the next few days. The least of my worries here, though, more concerned about track and time of day (which also looks good, seems to peak in intensity Monday evening into the overnight). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Andrew with a new post on the stormhttp://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 I would be frowning, though 50 miles south on the Para GFS run would work.I would take a 50 mile shift South on both the Euro and Para GFS. Everything else can stay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 I would take a 50 mile shift South on both the Euro and Para GFS. Everything else can stay. Yep, the 18z GFS Ensembles all looked pretty good for the Milwaukee area, not any really NW solutions or crazy suppressed either, can only hope things stay pretty stable the next couple days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110618/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110618/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png These precip type maps scare me, they make it appear the only way to get a good snow to accumulate with this system is to be on a lucky 'snow island'. I really hope the soundings on the GFS are warm biased, because if not, I'm not seeing too many 8-10" amounts anywhere. The Euro soundings for La Crosse looked good, safely all snow, but not so on the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 These precip type maps scare me, they make it appear the only way to get a good snow to accumulate with this system is to be on a lucky 'snow island'. I really hope the soundings on the GFS are warm biased, because if not, I'm not seeing too many 8-10" amounts anywhere. The Euro soundings for La Crosse looked good, safely all snow, but not so on the GFS. I was noting those "snow islands" too. Looks odd given the snowfall maps. Could be a bug in the new model that needs to be worked out. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 I was noting those "snow islands" too. Looks odd given the snowfall maps. Could be a bug in the new model that needs to be worked out. True, the strangest part about it is a lot of times those islands are on the southern side of the deformation zone, closer to the low and the warm air. I would like to think if the heaviest precip comes through during the overnight hours, and the low passes at least 60 to 90 miles south of here, dynamic cooling along with the nocturnal hours would be enough to keep rain from seeping in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 True, the strangest part about it is a lot of times those islands are on the southern side of the deformation zone, closer to the low and the warm air. I would like to think if the heaviest precip comes through during the overnight hours, and the low passes at least 60 to 90 miles south of here, dynamic cooling along with the nocturnal hours would be enough to keep rain from seeping in.I truly wouldn't worry about it. Take a look at the 850 mb temps on the Euro and GFS if you didn't already. This storm will be pulling down arctic air and north of the low pressure should be all snow. These maps are wacky. Thermally there isn't going to be much of an issue at all. Ground temps are the only limiting factor, but will easily overcome by heavy snow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Unless models flip the script, I think we're pretty much out of the mix here on seeing totals over 3". I really really really hope we get some flakes flying as a bare minimum. If we get no snow, and a dang wind advisory with temps in the upper 20's, I'm going to be incredibly frustrated. Really hope models dig this sucker further south tonight. Also, my folks live near Rochester, MN. Man, talk about a bullseye on most of these models! They could easily be flirting with 12"+ up there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Unless models flip the script, I think we're pretty much out of the mix here on seeing totals over 3". I really really really hope we get some flakes flying as a bare minimum. If we get no snow, and a dang wind advisory with temps in the upper 20's, I'm going to be incredibly frustrated. Really hope models dig this sucker further south tonight. Also, my folks live near Rochester, MN. Man, talk about a bullseye on most of these models! They could easily be flirting with 12"+ up there. Oh you know Nebraska can't get the snow. It will either miss North or South. This time it will be North. I wouldn't be surprised if the next one hits Kansas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Dgex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Dgeximage.jpg I was hoping that model wouldn't make an appearance here, now we're doomed! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Fim model Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Dgeximage.jpgWhy isnt this showing 2 feet?? WTH! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Ok NAM.......time to do your 'NAM' thing.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Dgeximage.jpg That would be a snowstorm of biblical proportions! lol Why is that model still in existence - seriously?! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Ok NAM.......time to do your 'NAM' thing....If you want it to do the "NAM thing", that means you want the track will either be in Canada or Mississippi... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 That would be a snowstorm of biblical proportions! lol Why is that model still in existence - seriously?!Every model must be taken into account Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 Dgeximage.jpgI knew someone was going to post this eventually lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 7, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 It's awesome to see everyone from the Plains to the Lakes light up this board. Each person has their own opinion and of course would like to be in the accumulating snow band. I'd personally love to see this system get wide enough and strong enough to give everyone some snow. It would be a great start to this winter season. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 7, 2014 Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 If you want it to do the "NAM thing", that means you want the track will either be in Canada or Mississippi...LOL..or for it to show a few feet of snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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