February 2014 Observations and Discussion

[East Dubzz]

Euro also going with a "heat wave" of mid 30's around the 17th or so this month. Man that'll feel nice.

[tim the weatherman]

according to the weather centre that we are not getting this potential winter storm for next weekend that it is going to be a nor easter event for the northeast.

[The Snowman]

The models have been all over the place this year and have been WRONG with every prolonged warm spell and I do not see anything saying any different in the long range. I expect to especially see the GFS go cold and stormy in the long range though not as cold as we have seen.

Would expect a warm ending to February as we see strong ridging over Japan in the next handful of days.

[james1976]

Come on you weenies, we all talk about how much cold and snow we want, and now you all want it to warm up. lol! lets go! more cold and snow! I want a monster storm yet!

[Tom]

Your right James, rather than talk about a mild spell, we should be embracing the wintry weather we are experiencing.  If I had 6" of snow cover, I'd still want the cold so the snow won't melt away.  Some folks are sounding like grannies and can't handle this winter!  After the dreadful winter season of '11/'12, I'd think ppl would sound more encouraging to see such a winter we are having.  BTW, get ready for next winter bc this is just what we needed to get ready for another brutal winter ahead next year.  Late 70's back to back repeats???

 

Sometime this month there is going to be a big storm sooner or later.  February is the top month that produces the biggest storms out of any month during the winter season.  Still lots of time left this month to track the big one.

[Geos]

It's no longer a novelty to have these small snow systems or snow cover. Mother nature should either give the area one last large snowstorm (imo, at least 8"), or flip to spring weather. I like tracking rain snow lines and large systems, but they've been absent now for awhile in the region. Just kind of bored with the weather at this point and tired of freezing every time I go outside!

 

If another large system does come a long have it come by in early March and give the area its normal snowfall for the month.

 

Anyways, only 16° for a high today. Liking the lower 30s showing up in the 7 day now.

[Niko]

I have noticed that there are some people on here who have just had enough of this harch, long winter that we've been having and I dont get why they want this winter to end.. We have been having such a great winter with records broken all over. I.E my average snowfall per winter is 45.4" and so far im up to 68.9". Also, January for my area was an all time record snowiest ever. I can go on and on. So, why stop having this superb winter and not go for more records, I mean, we came this far, why not go to full stretch. I hope we get more arctic airmasses, if not more severe than early January and also get clobbered with a few more massive snowstorms I have huge piles here and I am not about ready to let warm air come here and melt that away, at least not until mid April. I definitely want 2 severe blizzards to hit my area and bury everything. I want my piles to reach 20 feet. All I am trying to say is that why give up this great winter that we have been having now in mid February??? Makes no sense. Might as well continue this beautiful stretch right into April, at least mid April. Lets go out with a bang this winter folks and stay strong. Come May, we will all be saying what a long, great winter this was...WINTER 2013-14 was one for the record books.  Peace!

 

Tom.....That system late next week I hear it might be a real juicy one, but too far south for our area and affecting the east coast?!! Hope that changes and tracks our way. Still plenty of time for changes.

[Tom]

I concur with the above statement Nikos.  Some of us will look back and remember this winter for years to come, others not so much.  I understand some folks in IA/WI haven't had as much snow as us here in IL/IN/MI but mother nature can't make everyone happy.  The worse feeling in the world is when you have such a deep snowpack and it all melts away like it did in early January after that huge rain storm we got hit by.  If it wasn't for that storm, we would be sitting at over 20" snow pack but you can't dwell on that.  I'd like to see this continue well into March like we did last year.  If that blocking over the top develops like they do in Low Geomagnetic cycles then we are in for something special to finish off this winter.  I must say, it will feel like Spring when these 30 degree temps roll on in next week.  Hopefully not to much snow will melt away this time around.  I'd like to break some records and go down in History.

[tim the weatherman]

the big storm you said is two different storms one is going to hit the northeast on friday and the storm that tom and the artist formerly known as rj snowlover pointed out is going to hit the lower greatlakes by next saturday.

[East Dubzz]

I have noticed that there are some people on here who have just had enough of this harch, long winter that we've been having and I dont get why they want this winter to end.. We have been having such a great winter with records broken all over. I.E my average snowfall per winter is 45.4" and so far im up to 68.9". Also, January for my area was an all time record snowiest ever. I can go on and on. So, why stop having this superb winter and not go for more records, I mean, we came this far, why not go to full stretch. I hope we get more arctic airmasses, if not more severe than early January and also get clobbered with a few more massive snowstorms I have huge piles here and I am not about ready to let warm air come here and melt that away, at least not until mid April. I definitely want 2 severe blizzards to hit my area and bury everything. I want my piles to reach 20 feet. All I am trying to say is that why give up this great winter that we have been having now in mid February??? Makes no sense. Might as well continue this beautiful stretch right into April, at least mid April. Lets go out with a bang this winter folks and stay strong. Come May, we will all be saying what a long, great winter this was...WINTER 2013-14 was one for the record books. Peace!

 

Tom.....That system late next week I hear it might be a real juicy one, but too far south for our area and affecting the east coast?!! Hope that changes and tracks our way. Still plenty of time for changes.

The snow is fine, but is there a need to want temps well below zero each night? That's the part that is getting to me.

[Geos]

The snow is fine, but is there a need to want temps well below zero each night? That's the part that is getting to me.

 

+100

 

We need to start melting some of this snow off to try to help curb the spring flooding potential. I pretty much figure the snow cover will be in place through the 20th.

 

I don't see anything to indicate any deep freezes beyond Tuesday. 

 

---

 

Edit: Just saw my gas bill, bring on warmer temps ASAP. haha

[BrianJK]

I have noticed that there are some people on here who have just had enough of this harch, long winter that we've been having and I dont get why they want this winter to end.. We have been having such a great winter with records broken all over. I.E my average snowfall per winter is 45.4" and so far im up to 68.9". Also, January for my area was an all time record snowiest ever. I can go on and on. So, why stop having this superb winter and not go for more records, I mean, we came this far, why not go to full stretch. I hope we get more arctic airmasses, if not more severe than early January and also get clobbered with a few more massive snowstorms I have huge piles here and I am not about ready to let warm air come here and melt that away, at least not until mid April. I definitely want 2 severe blizzards to hit my area and bury everything. I want my piles to reach 20 feet. All I am trying to say is that why give up this great winter that we have been having now in mid February??? Makes no sense. Might as well continue this beautiful stretch right into April, at least mid April. Lets go out with a bang this winter folks and stay strong. Come May, we will all be saying what a long, great winter this was...WINTER 2013-14 was one for the record books.  Peace!

 

Well said.  I agree 100%

[Tom]

I have noticed that the GFS had back to back runs of the western ridge coming back after around say Day 10-11 with cross polar flow.  I'm telling you guys, although this pattern will take a break from the frigid temps, it wont totally break down, it will continue if you like it or not.  You don't have to look to far back where we had a winter that was just "stuck" in a pattern that would never break as much as we prayed it would...winter of 2011-12.  Better hunker down and store up on that firewood, we still have a ways to go.

[Geos]

If the really cold air does come back it won't be as cold as it is now luckily. Probably highs in the lower 20s with lows in the lower teens.

Couple things to watch for is how much the snow pack area will decrease & how much the increased sun angle will play a role in modifying the cold air masses. A well placed warm up (Chinook event) aimed at the Dakotas into western Minnesota would effect the northwest flow.

The blocking could be offset by that trough in Alaska, so a big "watch out" there. That will have to be monitored along with the EPO.

 

GFS looks a bit cold between 360-384, but that's way down the road. From what I see, the pattern break up will be done by the second week of March as we see the new Pacific pattern take hold.

[Money]

The problem I have is that there's absolutely nothing to do in the winter time. I don't snowboard or ski, and I rarely go ice-fishing (too boring)

 

I just love the spring time where you can go fishing, while listening to some baseball on the radio, in shorts all the time, go for a bike ride or a run etc. During the winter, you're pretty much stuck inside all the time, and that sucks.

[james1976]

The problem I have is that there's absolutely nothing to do in the winter time. I don't snowboard or ski, and I rarely go ice-fishing (too boring)

 

I just love the spring time where you can go fishing, while listening to some baseball on the radio, in shorts all the time, go for a bike ride or a run etc. During the winter, you're pretty much stuck inside all the time, and that sucks.

better come up with some outdoor winter activities! lol

[East Dubzz]

The forecasted low last night in Dubuque was 4 last night. As of 7:53 this morning, the temperature was -8.

[MarcusBeier]

I have noticed that there are some people on here who have just had enough of this harch, long winter that we've been having and I dont get why they want this winter to end.. We have been having such a great winter with records broken all over. I.E my average snowfall per winter is 45.4" and so far im up to 68.9". Also, January for my area was an all time record snowiest ever. I can go on and on. So, why stop having this superb winter and not go for more records, I mean, we came this far, why not go to full stretch. I hope we get more arctic airmasses, if not more severe than early January and also get clobbered with a few more massive snowstorms I have huge piles here and I am not about ready to let warm air come here and melt that away, at least not until mid April. I definitely want 2 severe blizzards to hit my area and bury everything. I want my piles to reach 20 feet. All I am trying to say is that why give up this great winter that we have been having now in mid February??? Makes no sense. Might as well continue this beautiful stretch right into April, at least mid April. Lets go out with a bang this winter folks and stay strong. Come May, we will all be saying what a long, great winter this was...WINTER 2013-14 was one for the record books.  Peace!

 

Tom.....That system late next week I hear it might be a real juicy one, but too far south for our area and affecting the east coast?!! Hope that changes and tracks our way. Still plenty of time for changes.

 

HERE!HERE! Bravo.. your friend in Northville agrees =)

Now that they finally did a good plow in my area, piles high all around...im a happy camper..bring us more and then spring will feel even more special

[winterfreak]

Very unexpected heavy snow. Loojs like around two inches so far.

[Geos]

The forecasted low last night in Dubuque was 4 last night. As of 7:53 this morning, the temperature was -8.

 

Wow, when you get cold you get really cold out there! 

 

I consider myself lucky, as I only hit 5° this morning. Stayed mostly cloudy last night. Now it's 19° with full sun.

 

EURO is showing it's time to start tracking rain/snow lines again soon.

[Scott26]

I'm really getting sick of waiting for the bus in the mornings with this sub-zero cold. Looks like we only have to deal with Monday, Tuesday and maybe Wednesday morning. The warm-up will definitely be welcomed.

[Geos]

I'm really getting sick of waiting for the bus in the mornings with this sub-zero cold. Looks like we only have to deal with Monday, Tuesday and maybe Wednesday morning. The warm-up will definitely be welcomed.

 

I think Tuesday morning has a good shot at being the last sub zero morning. Wednesday morning maybe, but I think southerly winds will start to lock in over night.

 

Today the sun is going to work on the snow and ice on the pavement. Standing against a brick south facing wall feels pretty good right now.

 

Decided to take some pics today of the snow pack, since it will be compacting down soon.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[East Dubzz]

I think Tuesday morning has a good shot at being the last sub zero morning. Wednesday morning maybe, but I think southerly winds will start to lock in over night.

 

Today the sun is going to work on the snow and ice on the pavement. Standing against a brick south facing wall feels pretty good right now.

 

Decided to take some pics today of the snow pack, since it will be compacting down soon.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nice pictures. It's actually recovered decently here, temp is now 12 and forecast of 16, which is higher than what was forecasted yesterday. But they also lowered to low here for tonight to -14, so guess it really doesn't matter to much. Looks like another morning with wind chills at -30 or so. And tomorrow night is gonna be really interesting. We haven't really had true radiational cooling much this year. And when we have, it usually only lasted until about midnight or so and then the winds changed to SW and warmed it up or leveled it out. Other times there has been wind to help keep them from dropping too low. Forecast for tomorrow night is -18, I'm wondering if we can touch -20 or if this cold won't be strong enough.

[Geos]

Nice pictures. It's actually recovered decently here, temp is now 12 and forecast of 16, which is higher than what was forecasted yesterday. But they also lowered to low here for tonight to -14, so guess it really doesn't matter to much. Looks like another morning with wind chills at -30 or so. And tomorrow night is gonna be really interesting. We haven't really had true radiational cooling much this year. And when we have, it usually only lasted until about midnight or so and then the winds changed to SW and warmed it up or leveled it out. Other times there has been wind to help keep them from dropping too low. Forecast for tomorrow night is -18, I'm wondering if we can touch -20 or if this cold won't be strong enough.

 

Thanks!

Would be impressive to get to -20° there this week. -2° forecasted here tonight, and -8° tomorrow night. Nice thing is the coldest temperature will occur before I head out to work.

 

It'll get harder and hard to get below zero as we approach March 1st. March is only 20 days away now!

[Tom]

I've been paying attention to the SSW event that has been trying to develop during the month of January.  You can see that during the early/middle periods of the loop the warming was having trouble to poke upward.  However, the last 10 days or so drastic warming is evolving over east Asia and warming is having more ease poking northward.  This is something we have to pay attention to as it could mean the later half of February could turn frigid.  Depending on how intense this SSW event will become, it may last a while and create blocking over the  North Pole.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

[Tony]

Lots of folks model hugging the warmth the past few days which is quite amusing to say the least. The mid to long range models have been just terrible this winter and that is all that really needs to be said. I for one still see winter lasting into March so enjoy the "supposed" warmth as that will be very short lived.  

[East Dubzz]

Temps have been taking a hit the past couple hours. Got up to 12 degrees, but had dropped down to 2 in the last three hours. Dropped 3 degrees, then 4, then 3, and that's while the sun was still out. Now that the sun is going down for good, I'd expect it to drop at least a couple more degrees in the next hour, we could be in the negatives by 7.

[East Dubzz]

Lots of folks model hugging the warmth the past few days which is quite amusing to say the least. The mid to long range models have been just terrible this winter and that is all that really needs to be said. I for one still see winter lasting into March so enjoy the "supposed" warmth as that will be very short lived.

We're just trying to plead our case in hopes of a warm up. I don't really know if it's gonna warm up or not, but gosh I hope it does. I don't get what you guys think is wrong with temps in the mid 20s and 30s!? That's all I'm asking for here, and that easily still gives us a shot at some storms, but we don't have to deal with brutal and dangerous cold night after night! I mean I hit -8 last night and my forecasted lows are -14 and -18 the next two nights... I don't think asking for a consistent low in the teens is too much, this cold is taking a toll on everyone, from physical things to money from the heating bills!

[WBadgersW]

Local Tmj4 forecast has a high of 42 next Tuesday...

[gabel23]

I think Tuesday morning has a good shot at being the last sub zero morning. Wednesday morning maybe, but I think southerly winds will start to lock in over night.

 

Today the sun is going to work on the snow and ice on the pavement. Standing against a brick south facing wall feels pretty good right now.

 

Decided to take some pics today of the snow pack, since it will be compacting down soon.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-7389-0-21132200-1391971199.jpg

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-7389-0-47812600-1391971220.jpg

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-7389-0-32893400-1391971469.jpg

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-7389-0-93181500-1391971479.jpg

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-7389-0-37178400-1391971495.jpg

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-7389-0-01366500-1391971509.jpg

Those are some impressive pics geo, I hope I see a winter in which my snow pack is that deep this late in the season! You guys have been in the sweet spot all year for sure. I'm hoping we see one massive winter storm that we all can get in; February and March usually gives us at least one loaded storm so we shall see.

[Tony]

We're just trying to plead our case in hopes of a warm up. I don't really know if it's gonna warm up or not, but gosh I hope it does. I don't get what you guys think is wrong with temps in the mid 20s and 30s!? That's all I'm asking for here, and that easily still gives us a shot at some storms, but we don't have to deal with brutal and dangerous cold night after night! I mean I hit -8 last night and my forecasted lows are -14 and -18 the next two nights... I don't think asking for a consistent low in the teens is too much, this cold is taking a toll on everyone, from physical things to money from the heating bills!

I agree with you with lows in the teens and highs in 20's but some have been saying 50's which I fo not agtee with.

[East Dubzz]

I agree with you with lows in the teens and highs in 20's but some have been saying 50's which I fo not agtee with.

It was the DVN that said 50s, I don't think anyone was actually claiming that would happen, though. That said, I really wouldn't mind it all that much at this point. Already -2 here tonight.

[Geos]

Local Tmj4 forecast has a high of 42 next Tuesday...

 

I believe the EURO was showing those kinds of temps. 12z GFS had Chicago hitting 50° on the 20th. 18z run is more like mid 40s.

 

The EURO is incredible with the warmth at 850mb. Has temperatures at those levels up to +18° from normal next week in the mid section of the US.

 

Snow cover will be around at least till then and probably remnants left still during the last week of the month if it remains milder. The water logged bottom 3-4" will take awhile to melt off.

 

Cool down tonight has slowed up. Only 1° drop in the last hour.

[Tom]

Why stop now???  Let's keep the pattern going into March.  I want to see ORD break the all time snow record.  Wisco had their share back in the '07/'08 season when I believe Madison recorded 100" of snow that season.  That was epic to see, probably once in a lifetime winter for most in Wisconsin.  They had a deep snow pack well into March that year.  I remember Milwaukee and Madison getting creamed every week it seemed with 6-12"+ snow storms. 

 

I am very curious to see how warm it gets next week with such a deep snow pack in the region, given the pattern and the behavior of the models this year that overdo warmth, I could see the models trend cooler for the following week.

[BrianJK]

Nothing would make me happer than to see a storm dump 15"+ on top of this snow pack and these enoremous snow piles.  Hopefully whatever "warmth" we do encounter doesn't do too much damage.  Time will tell...

[East Dubzz]

@KWWLSchnack: Number of days with the low temp zero or colder:

#Waterloo 36

#Dubuque 34

#CedarRapids 31

#IowaCity 30

#iawx

[Geos]

WGN posted this graphic a little ago. Currently with 3 days above freezing in their 7 day.

 

 

Nice blog write up on the up coming pattern.

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/02/arctic-cold-to-abruptly-end-in-mid.html?m=1

 

Too far to put much stock in, but the 0z GFS is the warmest yet for the last half of next week. Has 60s pushing up to I-80 and mid 50s into far N IL and southern MI. Definitely would eat the snow pack alive.

[Money]

Why stop now???  Let's keep the pattern going into March.  I want to see ORD break the all time snow record.  Wisco had their share back in the '07/'08 season when I believe Madison recorded 100" of snow that season.  That was epic to see, probably once in a lifetime winter for most in Wisconsin.  They had a deep snow pack well into March that year.  I remember Milwaukee and Madison getting creamed every week it seemed with 6-12"+ snow storms. 

 

I am very curious to see how warm it gets next week with such a deep snow pack in the region, given the pattern and the behavior of the models this year that overdo warmth, I could see the models trend cooler for the following week.

 

Because outside of Chicago, posters here really havent seen the activity you guys have. Wisconsin snowfall is probably just around average while La Crosse is below average. Iowa has gotten missed most of the time as well. I understand why you guys want Winter to continue because of how great the snowfall has been in Chicago, but areas north and west haven't seen nearly the snow you guys have and we are sick of the cold. Cold and dry is the worst. 

[East Dubzz]

-17 this morning, with -30 wind chill. Forecast for tonight is now -21, and the record low for tomorrow is -18, so that's in jeopardy.

[NEJeremy]

I think we just cracked the 10" amount for the season at the airport with last weeks 3.5" storm, but what we have had is a ton of cold and below zero temps. I've never paid so much for my heating bills. What a joke of a winter. The extended offers little hope of any change around here in NE anyways with absolutely no snow for the next 16 days. It's funny how many times that crappy CFSv2 has had us buried in snow here but nothing all year. I know patterns are hard to break, but I am dying for an early spring here