December 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121612/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121612/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121612/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.png

[Tom]

i am suspecting that the nao has something to do with it too.

Sure does, last year it was sky high all season long...

[gosaints]

Very wierd Parallel run as well.  A mess of energy until you get to hour 204

[winterfreak]

Not seeing much to get excited about. Just a discombobulated mess on the models. Nice clipper for the Canadian border areas. Lots of cold but that's useless without snow. NW flow returns and then it's the east coast's turn.

[NEJeremy]

12z Euro Ensembles/Control really hitting this system on Christmas Eve...the model is also consistently seeing that SE ridge build in during the middle/long range and that is a primo pattern to see cutters around these parts.

 

Enjoy the snow Great Lakes and points east of there. It seems like everything is going to really develop east of here. I was excited seeing all the new posts and then I saw the total qpf for the next 2 weeks for Nebraska is less than .5"

[Tom]

You couldn't have painted a much better SST map than this.  The waters near Alaska/NW NAMER continue to warm and grow raising the probability of sustained Arctic Blockign (-AO).  Meanwhile, the cold waters gather just north of Hawaii.  Classic tongue of colder waters off of Asia that allow the Pacific storm train to hit that body of warmer water causing the Split Flow pattern.  The big winter's of 1976-77 and 1977-78 were both weak El Nino's.  1977-78 was a weak Modiki EL Nino and this year will match up pretty well with that winter.  The Midwest/Lakes saw many large storm systems back then and a parade of systems swept through the region over and over again.  Interesting times ahead.

[Tom]

12z Euro still showing a decent wave of snow for KS/MO area on the 18th...

[Tom]

12z Euro spinning up a monster 990mb in western KY/S IN on Christmas Eve...will post maps when they fully load.

[Thundersnow12]

12z Euro Ensembles/Control really hitting this system on Christmas Eve...the model is also consistently seeing that SE ridge build in during the middle/long range and that is a primo pattern to see cutters around these parts.

 

Those are the 0z run images. 

 

This is what I like to see

 

[bud2380]

Euro shoves the Xmas eve storm down into Kentucky this run

[Tom]

Those are the 0z run images. 

 

This is what I like to see

 

198.png

Yup, the 12z Euro is going towards that this run...

[Tom]

Euro shoves the Xmas eve storm down into Kentucky this run

I'd rather have it showing up south now, rather than later.  This puppy digs so much and blows up into a monster.  NW trend will be the result with this storm down the road.  

[tim the weatherman]

You couldn't have painted a much better SST map than this.  The waters near Alaska/NW NAMER continue to warm and grow raising the probability of sustained Arctic Blockign (-AO).  Meanwhile, the cold waters gather just north of Hawaii.  Classic tongue of colder waters off of Asia that allow the Pacific storm train to hit that body of warmer water causing the Split Flow pattern.  The big winter's of 1976-77 and 1977-78 were both weak El Nino's.  1977-78 was a weak Modiki EL Nino and this year will match up pretty well with that winter.  The Midwest/Lakes saw many large storm systems back then and a parade of systems swept through the region over and over again.  Interesting times ahead.

one thing i have noticed on how ninos 1,2 and 3 have cooled signficantly so this is the sign that the weak el nino is not there.

[tim the weatherman]

I'd rather have it showing up south now, rather than later.  This puppy digs so much and blows up into a monster.  NW trend will be the result with this storm down the road.  

we're doomed (also this could be a negativly tilted trough).

[Thundersnow12]

Yup, the 12z Euro is going towards that this run...

 

But still ends up further SE of the 0z ensemble mean 

[Tom]

one thing i have noticed on how ninos1,2 and have cooled signicantly so this is the sign that the weak el nino is not there.

That is not true.  The cooling of the ENSO 1.2 region means the warmer waters are heading west into the central Pacific producing a "Modiki" type El Nino.  The ENSO region is +0.9C right now.  Just below moderate level.

[Money]

Look at the storms developing in the plains at 216. Looks like another potential monster

[Tom]

Look at the storms developing in the plains at 216. Looks like another potential monster

Freakin' crazy looking system in the InterMountain west region on Christmas Day!

[tim the weatherman]

christmas day travel might get crazy with these big storms showing up on the models.

[tim the weatherman]

That is not true.  The cooling of the ENSO 1.2 region means the warmer waters are heading west into the central Pacific producing a "Modiki" type El Nino.  The ENSO region is +0.9C right now.  Just below moderate level.

true tom i don't know what i am talking about.

[East Dubzz]

Wouldn't surprise me to see a storm around Christmas. Seems there is one almost every year.

[Tom]

Man, just look at that monster trough digging into the the SW region...crazy looking set up for sure.

[CentralNebWeather]

Tom, I am getting excited.  Though a long ways out, those are the potential monsters that we tell stories about the roll through the plains up through the Midwest and Great Lakes.  Been awhile since I have see a map like this.  Will be on Christmas vacation so hopefully I can take pictures of the kids on top of large snow piles.  Those are some of my most vivid memories as a kid.  My dad used to have snowmobiles and there was rarely a winter that we didn't get alot of riding in.  Those are maps that I would see on the local weather with a big L spinning.  When our local weather guy said watch out for a developing storm in the Great Basin I knew the potential was there for a big one.  Nostalgia.

[Snowshoe]

 My dad used to have snowmobiles and there was rarely a winter that we didn't get alot of riding in. 

 

Waiting somewhat patiently for enough snow to ride my new snowmobile as well.

[CentralNebWeather]

Still some of my best memories.  My father is now 74 and has had quadruple bypass so his riding days are over but he still loves snow even got out the snow blower yesterday.  These memories are why I love winter so much.  Riding all day then going home to a warm house with the smells of my mother's baking and hot chocolate to drink.  My mother died in 1999 but my wife has the same type of baking skills.

[tim the weatherman]

POTENTIAL FOR PANHANDLE HOOK SYSTEM THAT COULD
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW JUST OUTSIDE THE PERIOD.POPS WERE INCREASED
SOME BUT KEPT IN CHC FOR AT LEAST SOME CONSISTENCY IN PRECIP ON THE
FRONT ITSELF. TRAVEL INTERESTS OVER THE HOLIDAYS SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS. chc means chicago il.(from no ind nws)

[Thundersnow12]

The 12z Euro EPS control run has three cutters. SE ridge really flexing its muscles

[Yerf]

Wow. That storm for Christmas looks crazy. Definitely a change in the pattern boyos

[tim the weatherman]

http://i.imgur.com/YgmjEld.pngcheck this out boys and girls.

[tim the weatherman]

the way the newest euro runs has the low to go to the ohio valley.

[The Snowman]

POTENTIAL FOR PANHANDLE HOOK SYSTEM THAT COULD

BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW JUST OUTSIDE THE PERIOD.POPS WERE INCREASED

SOME BUT KEPT IN CHC FOR AT LEAST SOME CONSISTENCY IN PRECIP ON THE

FRONT ITSELF. TRAVEL INTERESTS OVER THE HOLIDAYS SHOULD MONITOR THE

LATEST FORECASTS. chc means chicago il.(from no ind nws)

Reading in context, 'chc' means 'chance'.

 

If it did mean Chicago (which has been abbreviated as CHC before), it would read:

 

"POPS were increased some but kept in Chicago for at least some consistency..."

What it really reads as is: "POPS were increased some but kept in chance (for precip) for at least some consistency..."

[Yerf]

Something is brewing.   It's nice to see relative model consistency

[Scott26]

Reading in context, 'chc' means 'chance'.

 

If it did mean Chicago (which has been abbreviated as CHC before), it would read:

 

"POPS were increased some but kept in Chicago for at least some consistency..."

What it really reads as is: "POPS were increased some but kept in chance (for precip) for at least some consistency..."

 Plus NWS Northern Indiana mentioning Chicago doesn't make much sense also lol

[tim the weatherman]

Reading in context, 'chc' means 'chance'.

 

If it did mean Chicago (which has been abbreviated as CHC before), it would read:

 

"POPS were increased some but kept in Chicago for at least some consistency..."

What it really reads as is: "POPS were increased some but kept in chance (for precip) for at least some consistency..."

it also stands for chicago too

[NEJeremy]

it also stands for chicago too

 

it means "chance" in that sentence

[The Snowman]

it also stands for chicago too

Yes, CHC is abbreviated for Chicago in some cases, usually outside of weather. I alluded to that in my response:

 

Reading in context, 'chc' means 'chance'.

 

If it did mean Chicago (which has been abbreviated as CHC before), it would read:

 

"POPS were increased some but kept in Chicago for at least some consistency..."

What it really reads as is: "POPS were increased some but kept in chance (for precip) for at least some consistency..."

If you're saying CHC stands for Chicago in the paragraph you posted, I can assure you that is not the case. The examples I posted above show that.

[GDR]

Yes, CHC is abbreviated for Chicago in some cases, usually outside of weather. I alluded to that in my response:

So you're saying there's a chance?

If you're saying CHC stands for Chicago in the paragraph you posted, I can assure you that is not the case. The examples I posted above show that.

[Tony]

http://i.imgur.com/YgmjEld.pngcheck this out boys and girls.

Oh good...we are only 210hrs out instead of 240hrs. And this should make us happy? I know you have to look at the complete picture and yes we are seeing a stormy pattern trying to setup but I have a feeling we are setting ourselves up for heartbreak. Just my gut feeling and the only proof I have is the past few weeks. Good luck to the east coast as I believe they will be the end winners. I hope to eat a lot of CROW if I am wrong!

[tim the weatherman]

Yes, CHC is abbreviated for Chicago in some cases, usually outside of weather. I alluded to that in my response:

 

If you're saying CHC stands for Chicago in the paragraph you posted, I can assure you that is not the case. The examples I posted above show that.

 but nws out of northren ind said chance not chicago in their forecast discussion this morning.

[tim the weatherman]

 

Panhandle Hook

 

Low pressure systems that originate in the panhandle region of Texas and Oklahoma which initially move east and then "hook" or recurve more northeast toward the upper Midwest or Great Lakes region. In winter, these systems usually deposit heavy snows north of their surface track. Thunderstorms may be found south of the track