Hawkeye Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 I'm a bit concerned about the CR/IC area, but not because of the GFS. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: I'm a bit concerned about the CR/IC area, but not because of the GFS. Yeah, even the Euro has come further north with the warm air. Still just far enough south to be ok, but another 30 miles and it starts to be trouble. It's gonna be a close call i think. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 47 minutes ago, Stacsh said: GRR: Not one model I've seen has high snow impacts along I-96 in Michigan. Am I missing something? Is this going North and the models aren't showing it yet? - Trend toward higher potential for impacts Sat Night - Sun Models are coming into better agreement with the coverage and location of the snow with the next storm system for Sat Night into Sunday. Overall the latest guidance is favoring accumulating snow across much of the central and southern parts of the CWA. Highest amounts are shown to be along and south of I-96. Impacts are looking increasingly likely...with several inches of snow now possible. This system could continue to trend upward from an impact perspective with time as models are now starting to show better FGEN and some Gulf moisture getting drawn into it. Based on this we will increase POPs to likely or higher for these locations and add a few inches of snow to the forecast. My weather office explains a similar situation w a good chance of accumulating snowfall here in SEMI as well. Expect models to react much different tomorrow as that energy goes onshore. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 East Coast will get hit hard w hvy snowfall next week. Philly-Bos w over a foot. My residents in NYC are already preparing. Looks like a secondary will form over the Delmarva Peninsula and explode taking the classic track NE of the big cities. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 hour ago, whatitdo said: I just want a snowfall greater than 3 inches. Is that too much to ask? I haven't had a day with more than 2 inches of 24 hr snowfall yet Need a small bump north on models. Then another "Now cast" bump via WAA doing it's thing. Best shot at a 98-99 analog of one biggie in the sea of mild nothing-burgers 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 3km NAM also liking Southeast Neb for a good backend thumping. NAM can be funky at this range, but the GFS isn't any better. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Uncle Ukie coming over. Staying for awhile. (staying the same) 5 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said: Uncle Ukie coming over. Staying for awhile. (staying the same) Yeah I think that might be close to the actual solution. DSM gonna be pushing 50" for the season by this weekend lol. GFS<NAM<UK/EURO Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 ^ I highly doubt DSM records 6"+ from this. More like 3-5". 4" would make it very close to the 2nd All Time snowiest DEC/JAN. *** And that 17 day deal I stated awhile back for DSM--- Dec 12 - Dec 29th, Jan 15th and FEB 1st (accumulating Snows over 5" each time other that FEB 1st ) is only one day off. Something is brewing in the FEB 16th time frame. As the recent 1' showed, it doesn't matter inbewteen in an active pattern - but I would bet a significant amount of jing on accumulating snow in C.IA around Feb 16th. The cold air will be there. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said: ^ I highly doubt DSM records 6"+ from this. More like 3-5". 4" would make it very close to the 2nd All Time snowiest DEC/JAN. *** And that 17 day deal I stated awhile back for DSM--- Dec 12 - Dec 29th, Jan 15th and FEB 1st (accumulating Snows over 5" each time other that FEB 1st ) is only one day off. Something is brewing in the FEB 16th time frame. Why don't you think DSM gets 6"? Thermals? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, james1976 said: Why don't you think DSM gets 6"? Thermals? Yes. You wanna be close to the mix line to score big. But this is too close. Initial qpf will be wasted on mix/sleet/FZRA. (likely)- and the ratios at under 10:1 as DMX mentioned do make sense. Just see it that way. Maybe the I-80 snow gods will win out with 10-12" on the ground but it doesn't precipitate from the ground up. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 This is NE /E IA into N.IL storm for max. Ring it up. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFSv16 not much change from east-central IA eastward. It has been inconsistent with totals over central IA. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: This is NE /E IA into N.IL storm for max. Ring it up. how do you think kalamazoo area will do this go round? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 9 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: This is NE /E IA into N.IL storm for max. Ring it up. Yeah I'm feeling 20 corridor might be a good spot to be in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 GDPS is not updating properly. Hard to tell what it's showing for snow right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, bud2380 said: GDPS is not updating properly. Hard to tell what it's showing for snow right now. Not digging where that 540 is at Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, whatitdo said: how do you think kalamazoo area will do this go round? you guys/gals are at least 12 hours downstream from here in IA- so things can change from there on out. Advantages you have- should be no mixing issues= all snow. Disadvantage- blocking and suppresion . ALL in all - as of this posting - 3-5". Maybe 4-6" if you get higher ratios which you may WITH the same precip. Tough to do. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 The Euro has shifted the rain/snow line south when the moisture surges into Iowa. Or maybe it is just sped up a bit. The 00z run, at 00z Sunday, had that bright pink heavy snow band over Iowa City. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Euro pretty similar to last night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Looks like I'm going to ride the line here. I think you need to be Hwy 30 on north. Down here along 80, it will be tight. Should get several inches though, so even 4-5" would be fine with me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Is the snow already done by 6am Sunday on the Euro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, james1976 said: Is the snow already done by 6am Sunday on the Euro? Basically, yes. Just some very light remnants still. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Yes, it all looks about the same. The Euro continues to chip away at central Iowa's snowfall. I would be happy with 7". For this area, 6" is the line between moderate and big storm. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 22 hours ago, Madtown said: UP of Michigan in many spots is between 75" and 100+" off last years totals....Many places with 12" or less on the ground. Pretty awful when these low-ball seasons hit. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 So what are we looking at for a start time? Saturday afternoon / early evening time period? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 13 minutes ago, East Dubzz said: So what are we looking at for a start time? Saturday afternoon / early evening time period? Yep. Late afternoon here. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kristie Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Trying to get a fix on this potential storm for Toledo Ohio. Not seeing where I can get the info. Do you know what we can expect? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 12z Euro... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 12z EPS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Most of the local mets have written this one off for eastern Nebraska going with an inch or less. However the NAM's and the short term Canadian give us several inches. Saw Jim posted he thinks Omaha is in line for 3.5-4" late Saturday afternoon and evening. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 9 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z Euro... ever so slightly inching north into SMI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Chicago finally looks like it's going to get blasted. I know they've missed out on a lot of these storms or at least the bulk of them. This one looks to have them in the crosshairs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edhalen Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said: Uncle Ukie coming over. Staying for awhile. (staying the same) Lock it in!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 20 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z Euro... Man, that looks like one heck of a LES plume up through SE WI. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Most of the local mets have written this one off for eastern Nebraska going with an inch or less. However the NAM's and the short term Canadian give us several inches. Saw Jim posted he thinks Omaha is in line for 3.5-4" late Saturday afternoon and evening. NAM is great for support when GFS is lost, but I feel like this could go either way. Euro is a little more promising than GFS at least. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 I feel as good as one can at this point. Still plenty of time for massive changes, but at least I’m in a spot where there can be a decent shift and I’m still looking at a solid storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 East shift can stop nowwwwwwww Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 41 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z Euro... 2 more counties north and I am over a foot! 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bumblin Bman09 Posted January 28, 2021 Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 35 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Chicago finally looks like it's going to get blasted. I know they've missed out on a lot of these storms or at least the bulk of them. This one looks to have them in the crosshairs. Chicago has missed out a bit and the past few runs look great for them. Living near the WI border I wouldnt mind a little bit of a northward shift. It looks to me theres been a northward jog the past few runs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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