Jump to content
The Weather Forums

Potential Winterstorm 1/30-2/1


Recommended Posts

Another "possible" Winterstorm is waiting in the wings to happen for some folks on here over this upcoming weekend and into early next week. Will this storm be the same w the previous 2waves? Will mix precipitation be mixing in and or rain? Could it be a miss for some and a huge hit for others? Lot of details to iron out here over the next couple of days. Models will definitely be busy. Good luck to all.

Lets discuss this as soon as we are done w the present storm that we are dealing with.............

  • Like 3

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 646
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

This was a memorable winter storm in a number of different ways but mostly bc of the heavy snowfall rates during the 1st half of the systems life span and then the long lasting duration of the snowfal

I haven't read an AFD from LOT like this in years...looks like a "wall of snow" is heading our way accompanied by gusty winds...similar to what happened with the storm back in late Dec.  If it wasn't

There is SO much snow right now! I was supposedly bullseyed both storms. I’m pretty tall (5’9”) and the snow on the sidewalks is almost up to my hips, pics for reference! (Ignore my super awkward pose

Posted Images

Canadian

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

  • lol 1

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

I was just coming in here to say that while track details and amounts are uncertain, it is going to be hard for this to rain on the majority of the sub. That massive block over Hudson Bay and some confluence in the flow over Quebec suggest odds are that this should be a mostly snow system except for maybe the far west and southwest portions of the sub. If it were to rain further east, it would be after some front end snow. 

  • Like 1

2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Snow Snow everywhere. And even here?

 

20210125 CPC hazards_d3_7_contours.png

  • Like 4

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

The Euro has the heavy snow blowing up over the area shown in this image, but then weakening as quickly as it blew up.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Tom pinned this topic
3 hours ago, hlcater said:

I was just coming in here to say that while track details and amounts are uncertain, it is going to be hard for this to rain on the majority of the sub. That massive block over Hudson Bay and some confluence in the flow over Quebec suggest odds are that this should be a mostly snow system except for maybe the far west and southwest portions of the sub. If it were to rain further east, it would be after some front end snow. 

Agree, that expansive Hudson Bay ridge/block is going to seed a lot of cold air into this system and cause/create another road block scenario leading towards a very slow moving system.  The 00z Euro has it snowing here for 30+ hours...loving this pattern that's unfolding.

1.gif

 

5.png

 

  • Like 2
  • Popcorn 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Another WWA event for here? Amazeballs!

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

00z GEFS animation below has that CO Low track we have not seen in a little while...another "share the wealth"???  This time, I'm encouraged to see that our MI peeps cash in as well.

1.gif

 

00z Euro showing quite a bit of snow region wide including today's snow...

5.png

 

 

 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro shows this map, but subtract 7.4" from Iowa City for the current storm and that gives 11.3". LOL.  Crazy.  Especially considering that just a day or two ago the NWS said it looked like a rain event. 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, bud2380 said:

Euro shows this map, but subtract 7.4" from Iowa City for the current storm and that gives 11.3". LOL.  Crazy.  Especially considering that just a day or two ago the NWS said it looked like a rain event. 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Maybe this time Illinois can cash in on the double digit figures.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

theres like an 8 inch difference between euro and canadian for SW michigan though. whats going on with that?

A lot of that on the Euro is from today's system.  There isn't a 24 hour snow map available on the Euro on Pivotal, so I can't post just the one storm like I can with the Canadian.  

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

A lot of that on the Euro is from today's system.  There isn't a 24 hour snow map available on the Euro on Pivotal, so I can't post just the one storm like I can with the Canadian.  

nah euro has us getting a good thumping around 6 inches for this thread's system currently. At most it predicted like 4 inches for SW michigan for todays system. So there's a discrepancy between canadian and euro for michigan unless the time valid on the canadian map is before the system is over for us 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

nah euro has us getting a good thumping around 6 inches for this thread's system currently. At most it predicted like 4 inches for SW michigan for todays system. So there's a discrepancy between canadian and euro for michigan unless the time valid on the canadian map is before the system is over for us 

Canadian is currently south of the other models.  And it weakens or transfers it's energy east much quicker.  GFS loading now.  A lot of Iowans in here and they focus on that quite a bit.  

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

A lot of that on the Euro is from today's system.  There isn't a 24 hour snow map available on the Euro on Pivotal, so I can't post just the one storm like I can with the Canadian.  

So is the Canadian showing from both?

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Canadian is currently south of the other models.  And it weakens or transfers it's energy east much quicker.  GFS loading now.  

praying this is the storm for us man; we been shafted way too many times this winter 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

The GFS models are still coming in much warmer (and consequently further north with snow) than others.  Here is the GFS v 16

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png

But we have the ICON on our side

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Tony said:

The GFS has been really bad lately and always late to the party it seems. Too bad as it used to be a pretty good model.

This type of storm is GFS kryptonite.  It cannot handle critical thermal systems.  With warm air advecting in, it will overdo the warm air and show rain or mix and be proven wrong again.  Like it has time and again already.  I trust the Euro here.  

  • Like 1

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, Tony said:

The GFS has been really bad lately and always late to the party it seems. Too bad as it used to be a pretty good model.

When you rush an "upgrade", that's what happens.

  • Like 2

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I've lost count of the number of times the GFS has shown rain here this winter and we ended up with snow.

Here is the UK.

sn10_024h.us_mw.png

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I've lost count of the number of times the GFS has shown rain here this winter and we ended up with snow.

Here is the UK.

sn10_024h.us_mw.png

It's true, you really can't even use the GFS with these types of storms. 

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFS will be too warm. The only way this rains on Iowa is if the low makes its way further north than modeled. The colder models have the best handle right now.

2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

It's comical how many times the GFS has done this.  And the NWS doesn't even seem to notice.  They'll still say in today's AFD that p-type is unknown based on the GFS.

  • Like 4

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro coming in further south and a little weaker.  It looks really strong until it hits the cold air and then hits a brick wall.  Some heavy amounts in southern Iowa and central Illinois though.  

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

Link to post
Share on other sites

The Euro is blowing up the weekend system earlier and farther south, then weakens the snow shield rapidly.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

  • lol 1

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Subtract about an inch in Iowa to account for today's leftover's and some light snow Wednesday.  Des Moines jackpot again.  Ha ha.  About 3-4" in my backyard.  Down from the 11" it showed on the 00z run.  

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

  • Sad 1

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro is blowing up the weekend system earlier and farther south, then weakens the snow shield rapidly.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

Not a good run at all. Hope to get better results as time goes on.

Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

Ofc it hits a brick wall on its way over here ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ i give up lol

The storm ongoing did also.  3 days ago there was no chance of snow in MId-Michigan and they got 3-8" so far.  Time will tell.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Subtract about an inch in Iowa to account for today's leftover's and some light snow Wednesday.  Des Moines jackpot again.  Ha ha.  About 3-4" in my backyard.  Down from the 11" it showed on the 00z run.  

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Nice looking band extending from Sioux City right down into my county! If we end up with another 6" of snow it will be tough finding places to put all the snow!!!!!

Link to post
Share on other sites

Just now kind of looking at this. If it ends up far enough SW that SE NE gets 5-8" like some models are showing, might as well just call the National Guard or else I'm not getting out of here until March 😆

  • lol 2

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

The storm ongoing did also.  3 days ago there was no chance of snow in MId-Michigan and they got 3-8" so far.  Time will tell.  

 

4 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Like this previous storm, it's overplaying the blocking this far out.  


I may be bitter and I hope im wrong but I honestly don’t think I will be. Using my jedi instincts on this and it just doesn’t feel like it will pan out despite what happened with todays system. Gotta be different variables at play. Ik @jaster220 feels me lol

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Like this previous storm, it's overplaying the blocking this far out.  

I agree....

 

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Tom unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...