Niko 7225 Posted January 25 Report Share Posted January 25 Another "possible" Winterstorm is waiting in the wings to happen for some folks on here over this upcoming weekend and into early next week. Will this storm be the same w the previous 2waves? Will mix precipitation be mixing in and or rain? Could it be a miss for some and a huge hit for others? Lot of details to iron out here over the next couple of days. Models will definitely be busy. Good luck to all. Lets discuss this as soon as we are done w the present storm that we are dealing with............. 3 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Canadian 1 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
hlcater 1325 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 I was just coming in here to say that while track details and amounts are uncertain, it is going to be hard for this to rain on the majority of the sub. That massive block over Hudson Bay and some confluence in the flow over Quebec suggest odds are that this should be a mostly snow system except for maybe the far west and southwest portions of the sub. If it were to rain further east, it would be after some front end snow. 1 Quote 2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 51.6" (Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”) (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7") Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8344 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Snow Snow everywhere. And even here? 4 Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 The Euro has the heavy snow blowing up over the area shown in this image, but then weakening as quickly as it blew up. Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 3 hours ago, hlcater said: I was just coming in here to say that while track details and amounts are uncertain, it is going to be hard for this to rain on the majority of the sub. That massive block over Hudson Bay and some confluence in the flow over Quebec suggest odds are that this should be a mostly snow system except for maybe the far west and southwest portions of the sub. If it were to rain further east, it would be after some front end snow. Agree, that expansive Hudson Bay ridge/block is going to seed a lot of cold air into this system and cause/create another road block scenario leading towards a very slow moving system. The 00z Euro has it snowing here for 30+ hours...loving this pattern that's unfolding. 2 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
FAR_Weather 5220 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Another WWA event for here? Amazeballs! Quote >1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4") Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6" Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15) First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 00z GEFS animation below has that CO Low track we have not seen in a little while...another "share the wealth"??? This time, I'm encouraged to see that our MI peeps cash in as well. 00z Euro showing quite a bit of snow region wide including today's snow... 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
westMJim 1863 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 At this time I think that this is a system that bears watching. Just have a feeling that this could be a big event. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Madtown 1092 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 this sucks 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Euro shows this map, but subtract 7.4" from Iowa City for the current storm and that gives 11.3". LOL. Crazy. Especially considering that just a day or two ago the NWS said it looked like a rain event. 1 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
Tony 893 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Just now, bud2380 said: Euro shows this map, but subtract 7.4" from Iowa City for the current storm and that gives 11.3". LOL. Crazy. Especially considering that just a day or two ago the NWS said it looked like a rain event. Maybe this time Illinois can cash in on the double digit figures. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Canadian very similar to the Euro. 2 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
whatitdo 131 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 30 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Canadian very similar to the Euro. theres like an 8 inch difference between euro and canadian for SW michigan though. whats going on with that? 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 3 minutes ago, whatitdo said: theres like an 8 inch difference between euro and canadian for SW michigan though. whats going on with that? A lot of that on the Euro is from today's system. There isn't a 24 hour snow map available on the Euro on Pivotal, so I can't post just the one storm like I can with the Canadian. Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
whatitdo 131 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, bud2380 said: A lot of that on the Euro is from today's system. There isn't a 24 hour snow map available on the Euro on Pivotal, so I can't post just the one storm like I can with the Canadian. nah euro has us getting a good thumping around 6 inches for this thread's system currently. At most it predicted like 4 inches for SW michigan for todays system. So there's a discrepancy between canadian and euro for michigan unless the time valid on the canadian map is before the system is over for us Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Stacsh 904 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 3 minutes ago, whatitdo said: nah euro has us getting a good thumping around 6 inches for this thread's system currently. At most it predicted like 4 inches for SW michigan for todays system. So there's a discrepancy between canadian and euro for michigan unless the time valid on the canadian map is before the system is over for us Canadian is currently south of the other models. And it weakens or transfers it's energy east much quicker. GFS loading now. A lot of Iowans in here and they focus on that quite a bit. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
GDR 665 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 10 minutes ago, bud2380 said: A lot of that on the Euro is from today's system. There isn't a 24 hour snow map available on the Euro on Pivotal, so I can't post just the one storm like I can with the Canadian. So is the Canadian showing from both? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
whatitdo 131 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, Stacsh said: Canadian is currently south of the other models. And it weakens or transfers it's energy east much quicker. GFS loading now. praying this is the storm for us man; we been shafted way too many times this winter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
whatitdo 131 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, GDR said: So is the Canadian showing from both? no he posted just this thread's system (for the canadian) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 The GFS models are still coming in much warmer (and consequently further north with snow) than others. Here is the GFS v 16 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
Tony 893 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, bud2380 said: The GFS models are still coming in much warmer (and consequently further north with snow) than others. Here is the GFS v 16 But we have the ICON on our side Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tony 893 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 The GFS has been really bad lately and always late to the party it seems. Too bad as it used to be a pretty good model. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 8 minutes ago, Tony said: The GFS has been really bad lately and always late to the party it seems. Too bad as it used to be a pretty good model. This type of storm is GFS kryptonite. It cannot handle critical thermal systems. With warm air advecting in, it will overdo the warm air and show rain or mix and be proven wrong again. Like it has time and again already. I trust the Euro here. 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
FAR_Weather 5220 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 31 minutes ago, Tony said: The GFS has been really bad lately and always late to the party it seems. Too bad as it used to be a pretty good model. When you rush an "upgrade", that's what happens. 2 Quote >1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4") Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6" Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15) First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT Link to post Share on other sites
Tony 893 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Nice look on the Gem. It does weaken it slightly as it heads east but not as badly as the current situation we were in. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Canadian 3 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 I've lost count of the number of times the GFS has shown rain here this winter and we ended up with snow. Here is the UK. 1 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: I've lost count of the number of times the GFS has shown rain here this winter and we ended up with snow. Here is the UK. It's true, you really can't even use the GFS with these types of storms. Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
hlcater 1325 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 The GFS will be too warm. The only way this rains on Iowa is if the low makes its way further north than modeled. The colder models have the best handle right now. Quote 2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 51.6" (Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”) (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7") Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 It's comical how many times the GFS has done this. And the NWS doesn't even seem to notice. They'll still say in today's AFD that p-type is unknown based on the GFS. 4 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
Money 1429 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Bunch of imby weenies in here lol 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Wednesday's system is trending further north and a little wetter. Euro gives 1-2" for the northeast KS, far SE NE and into MO. Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Euro coming in further south and a little weaker. It looks really strong until it hits the cold air and then hits a brick wall. Some heavy amounts in southern Iowa and central Illinois though. Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 12z Euro coming in South this run... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 The Euro is blowing up the weekend system earlier and farther south, then weakens the snow shield rapidly. 1 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Subtract about an inch in Iowa to account for today's leftover's and some light snow Wednesday. Des Moines jackpot again. Ha ha. About 3-4" in my backyard. Down from the 11" it showed on the 00z run. 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
Tony 893 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 8 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The Euro is blowing up the weekend system earlier and farther south, then weakens the snow shield rapidly. Not a good run at all. Hope to get better results as time goes on. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
westMJim 1863 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 I still feel this system is one to keep a eye on. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
whatitdo 131 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Ofc it hits a brick wall on its way over here ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ i give up lol 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Stacsh 904 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 30 minutes ago, whatitdo said: Ofc it hits a brick wall on its way over here ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ i give up lol The storm ongoing did also. 3 days ago there was no chance of snow in MId-Michigan and they got 3-8" so far. Time will tell. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
gabel23 1603 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 51 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Subtract about an inch in Iowa to account for today's leftover's and some light snow Wednesday. Des Moines jackpot again. Ha ha. About 3-4" in my backyard. Down from the 11" it showed on the 00z run. Nice looking band extending from Sioux City right down into my county! If we end up with another 6" of snow it will be tough finding places to put all the snow!!!!! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 I'd like to see the Euro ensembles on this one. Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
snowstorm83 2042 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Just now kind of looking at this. If it ends up far enough SW that SE NE gets 5-8" like some models are showing, might as well just call the National Guard or else I'm not getting out of here until March 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" (so far) Average: 25.9" Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4429 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 25 minutes ago, bud2380 said: I'd like to see the Euro ensembles on this one. Here is the 12z EPS. More impressive than I though it would be. 6 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Thanks Clinton. Those are really nice and in incredible agreement this far out. 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
Stacsh 904 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Like this previous storm, it's overplaying the blocking this far out. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
whatitdo 131 Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, Stacsh said: The storm ongoing did also. 3 days ago there was no chance of snow in MId-Michigan and they got 3-8" so far. Time will tell. 4 minutes ago, Stacsh said: Like this previous storm, it's overplaying the blocking this far out. I may be bitter and I hope im wrong but I honestly don’t think I will be. Using my jedi instincts on this and it just doesn’t feel like it will pan out despite what happened with todays system. Gotta be different variables at play. Ik @jaster220 feels me lol 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted January 26 Author Report Share Posted January 26 TWC early prediction... 1 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted January 26 Author Report Share Posted January 26 25 minutes ago, Stacsh said: Like this previous storm, it's overplaying the blocking this far out. I agree.... Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
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