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Potential Winterstorm 1/30-2/1

Niko

By Niko
in East of the Rockies

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Niko Grand Master

Niko

Posted
Posted

Another "possible" Winterstorm is waiting in the wings to happen for some folks on here over this upcoming weekend and into early next week. Will this storm be the same w the previous 2waves? Will mix precipitation be mixing in and or rain? Could it be a miss for some and a huge hit for others? Lot of details to iron out here over the next couple of days. Models will definitely be busy. Good luck to all.

Lets discuss this as soon as we are done w the present storm that we are dealing with.............

  • Like 3

Snowfall for Winter 2025 -26                  

October 2025: 0.0"

November 2025: 6.7"                         

December 2025: 10.9"                       Coldest Temp: -15F & -10F for Detroit 

January 2026: 17.1"                           

February 2026: 4.9"                             Detroit Snowfall: 40.0"

March 2026: 0.4"                                  New Haven: 42" , ~  42"

April 2026: Trace

May: Trace                                             BN Snowfall this winter!

                                                                 Average is 44.1"

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Tom
Tom

This was a memorable winter storm in a number of different ways but mostly bc of the heavy snowfall rates during the 1st half of the systems life span and then the long lasting duration of the snowfal

Tom
Tom

I haven't read an AFD from LOT like this in years...looks like a "wall of snow" is heading our way accompanied by gusty winds...similar to what happened with the storm back in late Dec.  If it wasn't

Jaycee
Jaycee

There is SO much snow right now! I was supposedly bullseyed both storms. I’m pretty tall (5’9”) and the snow on the sidewalks is almost up to my hips, pics for reference! (Ignore my super awkward pose

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

Canadian

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

  • lol 1

season snowfall: 31.0"

'24-25: 18.9"      '23-24: 35.1"      '22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"     

Average snowfall: ~30"

hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

Posted
Posted

I was just coming in here to say that while track details and amounts are uncertain, it is going to be hard for this to rain on the majority of the sub. That massive block over Hudson Bay and some confluence in the flow over Quebec suggest odds are that this should be a mostly snow system except for maybe the far west and southwest portions of the sub. If it were to rain further east, it would be after some front end snow. 

  • Like 1

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

Snow Snow everywhere. And even here?

 

20210125 CPC hazards_d3_7_contours.png

  • Like 4

Winter 2025-26 Snow Total = 68.1"   Largest Storm: 7.5" (11/29-30)    Snow/Ice Headlines: 20!!      Oct: 0.0 Nov:10.1 Dec: 17.1 Jan: 21.9  Feb: 7.1 Mar: 11.6 Apr: 0.3 (116% Normal Season)

Avg = 58.6"  (Harrison): 2024-25 = 55.3"   2023-24 = 53.1"             Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"          Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows) I have personally experienced: Jan 2014, Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1995, Nov 1989, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973

Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

The Euro has the heavy snow blowing up over the area shown in this image, but then weakening as quickly as it blew up.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

season snowfall: 31.0"

'24-25: 18.9"      '23-24: 35.1"      '22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"     

Average snowfall: ~30"

Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, hlcater said:

I was just coming in here to say that while track details and amounts are uncertain, it is going to be hard for this to rain on the majority of the sub. That massive block over Hudson Bay and some confluence in the flow over Quebec suggest odds are that this should be a mostly snow system except for maybe the far west and southwest portions of the sub. If it were to rain further east, it would be after some front end snow. 

Agree, that expansive Hudson Bay ridge/block is going to seed a lot of cold air into this system and cause/create another road block scenario leading towards a very slow moving system.  The 00z Euro has it snowing here for 30+ hours...loving this pattern that's unfolding.

1.gif

 

5.png

 

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

00z GEFS animation below has that CO Low track we have not seen in a little while...another "share the wealth"???  This time, I'm encouraged to see that our MI peeps cash in as well.

1.gif

 

00z Euro showing quite a bit of snow region wide including today's snow...

5.png

 

 

 

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bud2380 Grand Master

bud2380

Posted
Posted

Euro shows this map, but subtract 7.4" from Iowa City for the current storm and that gives 11.3". LOL.  Crazy.  Especially considering that just a day or two ago the NWS said it looked like a rain event. 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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Tony Collaborator

Tony

Posted
Posted
Just now, bud2380 said:

Euro shows this map, but subtract 7.4" from Iowa City for the current storm and that gives 11.3". LOL.  Crazy.  Especially considering that just a day or two ago the NWS said it looked like a rain event. 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Maybe this time Illinois can cash in on the double digit figures.

whatitdo Newbie

whatitdo

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Canadian very similar to the Euro.

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png

theres like an 8 inch difference between euro and canadian for SW michigan though. whats going on with that?

  • Confused 1
bud2380 Grand Master

bud2380

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

theres like an 8 inch difference between euro and canadian for SW michigan though. whats going on with that?

A lot of that on the Euro is from today's system.  There isn't a 24 hour snow map available on the Euro on Pivotal, so I can't post just the one storm like I can with the Canadian.  

whatitdo Newbie

whatitdo

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

A lot of that on the Euro is from today's system.  There isn't a 24 hour snow map available on the Euro on Pivotal, so I can't post just the one storm like I can with the Canadian.  

nah euro has us getting a good thumping around 6 inches for this thread's system currently. At most it predicted like 4 inches for SW michigan for todays system. So there's a discrepancy between canadian and euro for michigan unless the time valid on the canadian map is before the system is over for us 

Stacsh Proficient

Stacsh

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

nah euro has us getting a good thumping around 6 inches for this thread's system currently. At most it predicted like 4 inches for SW michigan for todays system. So there's a discrepancy between canadian and euro for michigan unless the time valid on the canadian map is before the system is over for us 

Canadian is currently south of the other models.  And it weakens or transfers it's energy east much quicker.  GFS loading now.  A lot of Iowans in here and they focus on that quite a bit.  

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GDR Rising Star

GDR

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

A lot of that on the Euro is from today's system.  There isn't a 24 hour snow map available on the Euro on Pivotal, so I can't post just the one storm like I can with the Canadian.  

So is the Canadian showing from both?

whatitdo Newbie

whatitdo

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Canadian is currently south of the other models.  And it weakens or transfers it's energy east much quicker.  GFS loading now.  

praying this is the storm for us man; we been shafted way too many times this winter 

Tony Collaborator

Tony

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

The GFS models are still coming in much warmer (and consequently further north with snow) than others.  Here is the GFS v 16

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png

But we have the ICON on our side

bud2380 Grand Master

bud2380

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Tony said:

The GFS has been really bad lately and always late to the party it seems. Too bad as it used to be a pretty good model.

This type of storm is GFS kryptonite.  It cannot handle critical thermal systems.  With warm air advecting in, it will overdo the warm air and show rain or mix and be proven wrong again.  Like it has time and again already.  I trust the Euro here.  

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Minny_Weather Grand Master

Minny_Weather

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Tony said:

The GFS has been really bad lately and always late to the party it seems. Too bad as it used to be a pretty good model.

When you rush an "upgrade", that's what happens.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

I've lost count of the number of times the GFS has shown rain here this winter and we ended up with snow.

Here is the UK.

sn10_024h.us_mw.png

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 31.0"

'24-25: 18.9"      '23-24: 35.1"      '22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"     

Average snowfall: ~30"

bud2380 Grand Master

bud2380

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I've lost count of the number of times the GFS has shown rain here this winter and we ended up with snow.

Here is the UK.

sn10_024h.us_mw.png

It's true, you really can't even use the GFS with these types of storms. 

hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

Posted
Posted

The GFS will be too warm. The only way this rains on Iowa is if the low makes its way further north than modeled. The colder models have the best handle right now.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

bud2380 Grand Master

bud2380

Posted
Posted

It's comical how many times the GFS has done this.  And the NWS doesn't even seem to notice.  They'll still say in today's AFD that p-type is unknown based on the GFS.

  • Like 4
bud2380 Grand Master

bud2380

Posted
Posted

Euro coming in further south and a little weaker.  It looks really strong until it hits the cold air and then hits a brick wall.  Some heavy amounts in southern Iowa and central Illinois though.  

Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

The Euro is blowing up the weekend system earlier and farther south, then weakens the snow shield rapidly.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

  • lol 1

season snowfall: 31.0"

'24-25: 18.9"      '23-24: 35.1"      '22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"     

Average snowfall: ~30"

bud2380 Grand Master

bud2380

Posted
Posted

Subtract about an inch in Iowa to account for today's leftover's and some light snow Wednesday.  Des Moines jackpot again.  Ha ha.  About 3-4" in my backyard.  Down from the 11" it showed on the 00z run.  

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

  • Sad 1
Tony Collaborator

Tony

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro is blowing up the weekend system earlier and farther south, then weakens the snow shield rapidly.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

Not a good run at all. Hope to get better results as time goes on.

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