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Potential Winterstorm 1/30-2/1


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25 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Nice score bud! Did ORD break the 6" storm drought then?

Yup, just barely!  ORD recorded 6.0" exact 2-day total...with a 5.3" calendar day total on the 26th.

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This was a memorable winter storm in a number of different ways but mostly bc of the heavy snowfall rates during the 1st half of the systems life span and then the long lasting duration of the snowfal

I haven't read an AFD from LOT like this in years...looks like a "wall of snow" is heading our way accompanied by gusty winds...similar to what happened with the storm back in late Dec.  If it wasn't

There is SO much snow right now! I was supposedly bullseyed both storms. I’m pretty tall (5’9”) and the snow on the sidewalks is almost up to my hips, pics for reference! (Ignore my super awkward pose

Posted Images

12z Euro is north, starts with mix almost up to Iowa City.  With such a great low track, it's a shame this system won't have heavier snow wrapping back around the nw side.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Just now, Hawkeye said:

12z Euro is north, starts with mix almost up to Iowa City.  With such a great low track, it's a shame this system won't have heavier snow wrapping back around the nw side.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

That's going to be a whicked band of snow...1-2"/hr stuff right there...

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Cedar Rapids is sitting pretty at the moment.  The first six hours of snow should be pretty heavy.

Those of you farther east aren't locked in, yet.  The UK goes into southern Michigan while the Euro drops south.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z Euro coming in north which is coming in line with the rest of the 12z guidance...

Euro weakens it faster than any other model at the moment. Hoping its incorrect

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That can't be quite correct because Des Moines is not smack dab in the middle of the heavy band.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Euro 10:1 and Kuchera maps aren't much different, so this would be a wetter snow.  My malfunctioning blower will love that. 

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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10 minutes ago, Tony said:

Euro weakens it faster than any other model at the moment. Hoping its incorrect

Plenty of time to button that down.  I’m more interested in the fact that the models are showing some consensus on track.

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13 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro 10:1 and Kuchera maps aren't much different, so this would be a wetter snow.  My malfunctioning blower will love that. 

Bout 2" difference up here so maybe 12:1

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I think sampling comes in late tomorrow or early Friday.........

<models should have a better handle on this by then>

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Slight shift north in eastern IA as well on the Euro mean.  Still pretty good here.  I like where CR is.  20 miles to the south, it's starting to get a little bit border line.  It would only take another 30 mile shift north on the Euro to be right on the edge.  Lots of time to work out those details though.  Let's see if DVN finally starts talking about this storm with a little more urgency.  

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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There are not many north misses among the Euro ensemble members, so I'm feeling pretty good.  I don't want to see it any farther north, though.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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As far as IC goes, thinking the best snow will be a bit to the northeast of me. I'd like where I was sitting if I were along hwy 20. 

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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I'd also like to say that you might want to pay particular attention to the NAM as it gets in range as it does well with these marginal temp/evap cooling dependent snow systems.

2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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NOAA says, there is a chance for "Heavy snow" for SEMI.....but not ironed out yet, which is totally acceptable at this range.

Quote: This system has the potential to bring snowfall to parts of the area
by late Saturday night into Sunday/Sunday night. However, the
northern extent of heavy snowfall that will be associated with this
system remains highly in question as the aforementioned high
pressure, centered over Quebec by late in the weekend, will act to
shunt the northeastward progress of this system as it encroaches on
the region. This will become the biggest challenge of the forecast
in the coming days. With the high pressure centered more to the east
by that time, temperatures will moderate to some degree with highs
closer to 30 from Sunday into early next week and lows in the teens
to around 20.

🤔

Btw:  I dont recall the previous storm having any hard time moving north, meanwhile it was forecasted to stay south........

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Long-range NAM is a bit north of most models.  After what happened with the last storm (and many others in the past) I don't want to be on the southern edge.

snku_024h.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Interesting to see NAM also picking up on the snow blip in E NE. I'd take 2-4" to mitigate the slow melting over the next week. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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FWIW, the ICON has the same good low track as other models, but has the mix all the way up to near the MN/IA border when the precip first breaks out.  The best snow falls over ne IA.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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DMX is basically saying its a toss between Euro and GFS. That would suck if the GFS won this battle lol.

Also mentioned the gulf will be wide open so if its snow it could be another biggie. 

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DVN doesn't really have too much to add to the discussion.  Heavy snow is likely in the area, but the exact details will depend on how far north the mid level warmth gets.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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18z RDPS.... obviously, more to go after these images.

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_79.png

snku_024h.us_mw.png

 

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Maybe the widespread snow cover will help keep this system a bit farther south?

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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19 minutes ago, Tony said:

Looks to be taking on a negative tilt if I am seeing this correctly

 

More of a neutral tilt closed low aloft. Starts negative in the 4 corners, then closes off.

500wh.conus.png

2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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5 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I hate to complain considering how fortunate we've been, but this would be more lousy timing.  I want to see the snow fall during daylight.  Daytime snow is much more enjoyable than overnight snow.

The last storm had quite a bit of daylight snow for me. But I realize the good snow started later in C.R.

‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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3 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Slight shift north in eastern IA as well on the Euro mean.  Still pretty good here.  I like where CR is.  20 miles to the south, it's starting to get a little bit border line.  It would only take another 30 mile shift north on the Euro to be right on the edge.  Lots of time to work out those details though.  Let's see if DVN finally starts talking about this storm with a little more urgency.  

I’ve been borderline with p/type issues all winter. 

‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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