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Potential Winterstorm 1/30-2/1

Niko

By Niko
in East of the Rockies

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Tom
Tom

This was a memorable winter storm in a number of different ways but mostly bc of the heavy snowfall rates during the 1st half of the systems life span and then the long lasting duration of the snowfal

Tom
Tom

I haven't read an AFD from LOT like this in years...looks like a "wall of snow" is heading our way accompanied by gusty winds...similar to what happened with the storm back in late Dec.  If it wasn't

Jaycee
Jaycee

There is SO much snow right now! I was supposedly bullseyed both storms. I’m pretty tall (5’9”) and the snow on the sidewalks is almost up to my hips, pics for reference! (Ignore my super awkward pose

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james1976 Grand Master

james1976

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

Don't worry James, it's just barely getting to the storm.  The model only goes out 84 hours. 

Wow I didn't know that.....awesome thanks

Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

The models have generally shown the heaviest totals where the WAA snow band initially blows up, with a drop off north of that.  The morning RDPS would suggest southern Iowa gets the best snow.

season snowfall: 31.0"

'24-25: 18.9"      '23-24: 35.1"      '22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"     

Average snowfall: ~30"

jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Tom said:

00z GEFS...

1.png

GEFS vs The World for SWMI. Let's see who wins. You mentioned classic CO Low. But looks like it's diving SE instead of due East. Btw what was your final total for the storm there?

Winter 2025-26 Snow Total = 68.1"   Largest Storm: 7.5" (11/29-30)    Snow/Ice Headlines: 20!!      Oct: 0.0 Nov:10.1 Dec: 17.1 Jan: 21.9  Feb: 7.1 Mar: 11.6 Apr: 0.3 (116% Normal Season)

Avg = 58.6"  (Harrison): 2024-25 = 55.3"   2023-24 = 53.1"             Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"          Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows) I have personally experienced: Jan 2014, Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1995, Nov 1989, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973

Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

The GDPS is gradually focusing the heavier snow eastward, with weakening west through Iowa and into Nebraska.

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_15.png

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 31.0"

'24-25: 18.9"      '23-24: 35.1"      '22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"     

Average snowfall: ~30"

bud2380 Grand Master

bud2380

Posted
Posted

Both the Canadian and GFS showing the heavier snow bands in Central IL to Central IN.  GFS still has no clue on thermals, but just looking at qpf output, you can see those are the areas it is showing the most precip.  

  • Like 1
Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

GEFS vs The World for SWMI. Let's see who wins. You mentioned classic CO Low. But looks like it's diving SE instead of due East. Btw what was your final total for the storm there?

Storm track is exactly due E out of CO but the snow shield is kinda off.  

I got about 6.5” from the last storm.  There was a lot of blowing/drifting and based on local reports that seems right.

  • Like 1
Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

UK is a bit back north with a big hit for the I-80 to HW20 corridor.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 2
  • Snow 1
  • scream 1

season snowfall: 31.0"

'24-25: 18.9"      '23-24: 35.1"      '22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"     

Average snowfall: ~30"

Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

UKIE with the bulk falling in eastern Iowa between 6pm and midnight. 

I hate to complain considering how fortunate we've been, but this would be more lousy timing.  I want to see the snow fall during daylight.  Daytime snow is much more enjoyable than overnight snow.

  • Like 2
  • Weenie 1

season snowfall: 31.0"

'24-25: 18.9"      '23-24: 35.1"      '22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"     

Average snowfall: ~30"

jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Tom said:

Storm track is exactly due E out of CO but the snow shield is kinda off.  

I got about 6.5” from the last storm.  There was a lot of blowing/drifting and based on local reports that seems right.

Nice score bud! Did ORD break the 6" storm drought then?

Winter 2025-26 Snow Total = 68.1"   Largest Storm: 7.5" (11/29-30)    Snow/Ice Headlines: 20!!      Oct: 0.0 Nov:10.1 Dec: 17.1 Jan: 21.9  Feb: 7.1 Mar: 11.6 Apr: 0.3 (116% Normal Season)

Avg = 58.6"  (Harrison): 2024-25 = 55.3"   2023-24 = 53.1"             Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"          Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows) I have personally experienced: Jan 2014, Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1995, Nov 1989, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973

jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

UK is a bit back north with a big hit for the I-80 to HW20 corridor.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Huge shift by the UK for those of us eastward. Trending??

  • Like 1

Winter 2025-26 Snow Total = 68.1"   Largest Storm: 7.5" (11/29-30)    Snow/Ice Headlines: 20!!      Oct: 0.0 Nov:10.1 Dec: 17.1 Jan: 21.9  Feb: 7.1 Mar: 11.6 Apr: 0.3 (116% Normal Season)

Avg = 58.6"  (Harrison): 2024-25 = 55.3"   2023-24 = 53.1"             Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"          Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows) I have personally experienced: Jan 2014, Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1995, Nov 1989, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973

Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Nice score bud! Did ORD break the 6" storm drought then?

Yup, just barely!  ORD recorded 6.0" exact 2-day total...with a 5.3" calendar day total on the 26th.

  • Like 2
Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

12z Euro is north, starts with mix almost up to Iowa City.  With such a great low track, it's a shame this system won't have heavier snow wrapping back around the nw side.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

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  • Thanks 1

season snowfall: 31.0"

'24-25: 18.9"      '23-24: 35.1"      '22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"     

Average snowfall: ~30"

Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted
Just now, Hawkeye said:

12z Euro is north, starts with mix almost up to Iowa City.  With such a great low track, it's a shame this system won't have heavier snow wrapping back around the nw side.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

That's going to be a whicked band of snow...1-2"/hr stuff right there...

  • Like 1
Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

Cedar Rapids is sitting pretty at the moment.  The first six hours of snow should be pretty heavy.

Those of you farther east aren't locked in, yet.  The UK goes into southern Michigan while the Euro drops south.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

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season snowfall: 31.0"

'24-25: 18.9"      '23-24: 35.1"      '22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"     

Average snowfall: ~30"

james1976 Grand Master

james1976

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

Cedar Rapids is sitting pretty at the moment.  The first six hours of snow should be pretty heavy.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

Nice! How does kuchera look?

Tony Collaborator

Tony

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z Euro coming in north which is coming in line with the rest of the 12z guidance...

Euro weakens it faster than any other model at the moment. Hoping its incorrect

  • Like 1
Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

That can't be quite correct because Des Moines is not smack dab in the middle of the heavy band.

  • lol 5

season snowfall: 31.0"

'24-25: 18.9"      '23-24: 35.1"      '22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"     

Average snowfall: ~30"

Bellona Rising Star

Bellona

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

That can't be quite correct because Des Moines is not smack dab in the middle of the heavy band.

I literally started laughing at work when I read that. 🤣

  • Like 1
Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

The Euro 10:1 and Kuchera maps aren't much different, so this would be a wetter snow.  My malfunctioning blower will love that. 

  • lol 1

season snowfall: 31.0"

'24-25: 18.9"      '23-24: 35.1"      '22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"     

Average snowfall: ~30"

Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Tony said:

Euro weakens it faster than any other model at the moment. Hoping its incorrect

Plenty of time to button that down.  I’m more interested in the fact that the models are showing some consensus on track.

  • Like 2
james1976 Grand Master

james1976

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro 10:1 and Kuchera maps aren't much different, so this would be a wetter snow.  My malfunctioning blower will love that. 

Bout 2" difference up here so maybe 12:1

Niko Grand Master

Niko

Posted
  • Author
Posted

I think sampling comes in late tomorrow or early Friday.........

<models should have a better handle on this by then>

Snowfall for Winter 2025 -26                  

October 2025: 0.0"

November 2025: 6.7"                         

December 2025: 10.9"                       Coldest Temp: -15F & -10F for Detroit 

January 2026: 17.1"                           

February 2026: 4.9"                             Detroit Snowfall: 40.0"

March 2026: 0.4"                                  New Haven: 42" , ~  42"

April 2026: Trace

May: Trace                                             BN Snowfall this winter!

                                                                 Average is 44.1"

Tony Collaborator

Tony

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Clinton said:

12z Euro Mean

1612267200-PMuMFVOaSpU.png

Man that is a beautiful sight to see. High numbers and fairly wide for this far out

  • Like 2
bud2380 Grand Master

bud2380

Posted
Posted

Slight shift north in eastern IA as well on the Euro mean.  Still pretty good here.  I like where CR is.  20 miles to the south, it's starting to get a little bit border line.  It would only take another 30 mile shift north on the Euro to be right on the edge.  Lots of time to work out those details though.  Let's see if DVN finally starts talking about this storm with a little more urgency.  

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Tony Collaborator

Tony

Posted
Posted

I believe this system will have even more moisture to work with then the prior storm. Moisture laden would be an understatement.

Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

There are not many north misses among the Euro ensemble members, so I'm feeling pretty good.  I don't want to see it any farther north, though.

season snowfall: 31.0"

'24-25: 18.9"      '23-24: 35.1"      '22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"     

Average snowfall: ~30"

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