bud2380 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, james1976 said: Local met still has 4-8 for most of central-eastern iowa Which met? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, indianajohn said: Snow Blowers Gassed up check! Sleds taken down from the addict Check! Winter Ski gear layed out and ready for the kids check! I think I'm more exited then my kids LMAO Hahaha...Love it! 12z Ukie...juice baby! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 GRR map lowered amounts for Marshall by an inch to 3-ish. SR maps like NAM have bumped north but insist on a small shaft zone over 1 county across SMI. Can you guess whose? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 On 1/27/2021 at 11:00 PM, Hawkeye said: First, the GFSv16 does drop good snow here. Second, the GFS has had thermal issues all winter and no other model is showing anything like the GFS warm scenario. Even the v16 says the current v15 is garbage. Btw, if all other models had the snow missing Cedar Rapids, but the GFS dumped a foot on CR, I would have no problem calling the GFS scenario garbage. Still think the GFS is garbage? 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Money said: Still think the GFS is garbage? I would think so, yes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, bud2380 said: Which met? KWWL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, East Dubzz said: I would think so, yes. GFS has been one of the best models around this year. Some people didn’t like the outcome it showed but it’s not bad at all 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 This thing definitely seems slow. Wasn’t it the slower models with the colder solutions? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, Money said: GFS has been one of the best models around this year. Some people didn’t like the outcome it showed but it’s not bad at all The thermals for most of the big storms around here so far this year have been pretty terrible, at least. Hawkeye isn’t exactly one to try to wishcast or anything like that, so I believe his criticism is valid. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 I’ve been getting freezing drizzle for about an hour now. That means the warm air is not to far above my head. I think the NWS and GFS did a good job forecasting this rain and mix already early this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Deformation band is our wild card. The models that have it are the ones that are generally more robust in E IA. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Frz drizzle here! Temp is 28 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 The NWS is now saying only up to 1” total snow for my place. That’s kinda what I’ld say will likely happen here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 30 minutes ago, East Dubzz said: The thermals for most of the big storms around here so far this year have been pretty terrible, at least. Hawkeye isn’t exactly one to try to wishcast or anything like that, so I believe his criticism is valid. I tend to be a hopeful pessimist. I'm always concerned about what could go wrong. I'm always conservative about my snowfall prediction for Cedar Rapids. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 48 minutes ago, Money said: GFS has been one of the best models around this year. Some people didn’t like the outcome it showed but it’s not bad at all As I outlined above, the GFS is likely to be right for the wrong reasons. It can be a good model and but one thing it is consistently bad at is handing marginal temp scenarios. The way things are panning out make it look right when it isn’t necessarily. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 The last few HRRR runs have gotten a bit colder and moved up the switch to snow in Cedar Rapids by an hour. We'll finally know how it plays out soon. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Interesting turn from the HRRR for the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area. It not only switches us to snow a bit sooner, but it also parks the light, but solid deformation zone over us through tomorrow morning. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Interesting turn from the HRRR for the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area. It not only switches us to snow a bit sooner, but it also parks the light, but solid deformation zone over us through tomorrow morning. I’ll take it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 I assume that area of less snow right along the Mississippi has to do with mixing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Hilarious. Up to 7” now on the HRRR. I don’t recall the last time it was a few hours away from a storm starting and I still had no clue what to expect. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 That deformation zone is also higher ratio stuff. Profile should yield ratios of 10-12:1 for us on the back side. 7-8:1 this evening. Though not sure what'd we'd see in terms of flake size there. Not really a lot of lift and DGZ saturation starts to decouple about half way through. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 The HRRR is showing 1” per hour rates for Iowa city the first few hours after change over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Not sure if it’s related to anything outside but my lights are flickering Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 15 minutes ago, East Dubzz said: I assume that area of less snow right along the Mississippi has to do with mixing? I wouldn't pay much attention to a quirky, one-run, local dry pocket like that. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Everything outside is already wet because of the drizzle and low 30s temperature. The fluffy top few inches of snow is now wet, packable snow. Once we warm up a bit more and get into the heavier precip later it's really going to be a sloppy mess. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Radar scope showing the precip moving in by Ottumwa is changing to snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Radar scope showing the precip moving in by Ottumwa is changing to snow It's unlikely there is any snow there. Ottumwa, at 2pm, is at 33º with light rain. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Both NAMs are now up over 4" for Cedar Rapids and Iowa City. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Iowa city going to get hit good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMB443 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Milwaukee just bumped me up from 5-9 to 6-10 not a big jump, but always glad to see totals increasing this close to showtime rather than going the other way. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 latest RAP 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 With the early morning forecast DVN upped Cedar Rapids to 35º this afternoon. The hourly forecast graphic has CR at 34º at 2pm. The actual temp at 2pm is still only 30º at the airport and 30/31º here in the city. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Some solid drizzle outside for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Raining here now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 A little thin layer of ice building up on some surfaces here with this drizzle. Kind of gross out right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 1.65"rain in rain gauge at parents in mcpherson kansas 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, East Dubzz said: A little thin layer of ice building up on some surfaces here with this drizzle. Kind of gross out right now. Same here, just had to go out and move my truck and mirrors were iced over and you could hear some sleet hitting the truck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Precip currently is 99% rain, but I am hearing the occasional ping against the window. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Precip has begun as rain here. It may be mixing with some sleet. I hearing things bouncing outside but hard to tell if that is rain freezing on contact with the snow or not. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, bud2380 said: Precip has begun as rain here. It may be mixing with some sleet. I hearing things bouncing outside but hard to tell if that is rain freezing on contact with the snow or not. Well if you and I are hearing the same thing, we're probably not imagining it lol. My guess is there's some sleet mixed in. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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