Snow Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 I must be dumb or cant read but i though green meant 30 o 35? Your not dumb, nobody is. The speeds are in knots. So 30 to 35 knots equal approximately 34.6 mph to 40.3 mph. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 I must be dumb or cant read but i though green meant 30 o 35?Yeah it's kind of hard to read. That map shows general gusts to about 40-45 mph over Inland Seattle and 55-60 mph for the beaches. The map is in knots so the winds are a bit stronger than you'd think. It's really important to not take those wind maps at face value though. Much like the snowfall maps they usually seem to overestimate the difference in winds over small distances. I still think SEA will gust to around 50 mph with the more exposed spots (Alkai and the floating bridges) getting close to 60. That's a pretty good track: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/slp.31.0000.gif Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 00z Euro is about 5 mb stronger than the GFS. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121100/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_nwus_2.png Shows 50 knot wind gusts for PDX: 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 Cyclogenesis has begun. Cloud tops are getting a lot colder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 00z Euro is about 5 mb stronger than the GFS. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121100/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_nwus_2.png Shows 50 knot wind gusts for PDX: Looks nice! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 Finally there is Zonal flow on a Euro run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 Hasn't been posted but the Canadian has a near perfect track for maximum winds in Seattle. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121100/gem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_5.png Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 if that were to happen would it be 60 plus?Hasn't been posted but the Canadian has a near perfect track for maximum winds in Seattle. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121100/gem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_5.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 if that were to happen would it be 60 plus?The Canadian's track would probably bring gusts 55-60 for SEA. GFS and Euro bring the low to the NW tip of the Olympic Penninsula which would mean 45-50 mph or so. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 Its not the amount of rain... its the number of dry days. 2014-15 (measured from Nov-Mar) has already had 20 days without rain. There was 13 dry days here TOTAL from 10/31/58 - 4/8/59. Can't undo that lead. I will have doubled the dry days from that winter by next week possibly. And another 2-3 dry days coming up here. This winter is more blocky and splitty already. It just never stopped raining in 1958-59. I had a 13 consecutive day dry spell already since November 1st. No wonder Los Angeles received a whopping .06" of rain from October to December of 1958 and only 5.59" for the entire season! All the rain fell in the PNW. That turned out to be a very dry winter for L.A. with the wettest month being in February. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 Just noticed Boeing Field hit 69 today. Jesus.It was actually cooler today in parts of San Diego, where Lindbergh Field had a high of 67. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 I had an incredible 65-50 temp spread today. The warmest I have ever recorded in either Dec or Jan. Hard to imagine we won't see the flip side at some point. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 SEA actually hit 46 mph today. Today was one of those freak events that are almost impossible to predict. Probably some low level jet action. At this point the Thursday evening storm has huge bust potential. The GFS and ECMWF show the storm weakening dramatically between Astoria and Neah Bay. I noticed the Seattle NWS discussion tonight really toned it down. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 Today was one of those freak events that are almost impossible to predict. Probably some low level jet action. At this point the Thursday evening storm has huge bust potential. The GFS and ECMWF show the storm weakening dramatically between Astoria and Neah Bay. I noticed the Seattle NWS discussion tonight really toned it down. I think this is based more on the quality of the writer and not the NWS's thoughts on the storm. If you look at the last four or five 9pm discussions from the last couple of days it is like they challenge themselves to write the briefest, least interesting summary and they always use the long term from the previous discussion. I agree the models have trended less favorable and there is the chance for a bust, but I am not sure the poor quality of the discussion is related to it. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 Current satellite loop as of Thursday 3am. Our Sou'Wester has formed and is intensifying at the moment. This Sou'Wester is going to be one for the ages. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/images/ir4km_enhanced/201412111100.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 Have had mainly light NE winds until just a few minutes ago. Now wind gusting to 25 mph, pressure 29.17" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abbotsford_wx Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 Current satellite loop as of Thursday 3am. Our Sou'Wester has formed and is intensifying at the moment. This Sou'Wester is going to be one for the ages. Bold prediction... Doesn't look like much for up here at any rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 Looks pretty healthy. 4AM surface analysis has it at 976mb. MM5-NAM shows a good track. I still think SEA will gust to about 50. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/slp.17.0000.gif Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 Looks pretty healthy. 4AM surface analysis has it at 976mb. MM5-NAM shows a good track. I still think SEA will gust to about 50. Gusts to 50 in the most favorable spots is probably a good call. It's pretty hard to ignore how fast the models weaken the low once it reaches the latitude of Astoria, so I would be surprised if it's anything more. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex_Snakes Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 Looks pretty healthy. 4AM surface analysis has it at 976mb. MM5-NAM shows a good track. I still think SEA will gust to about 50. Watching the sat loop, it looks like it has already curved north. Wonder if it s going to stay off the coast farther than models show. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 I'm thinking pdx will get at least one gust between 55-60 mph. Would be an interesting afternoon if that came true. Or maybe I just like windstorms and am wishcasting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 It seems that in my lifetime at least the vast majority of potential wind events either fail or disappoint. 1995, 2002 in the south valley, and 2006 are notable exceptions.... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 It seems that in my lifetime at least the vast majority of potential wind events either fail or disappoint. 1995, 2002 in the south valley, and 2006 are notable exceptions.... Very often the worst ones come as a bit of a surprise. Most that are called two days ahead of time bust. Very much like snow in a lot of ways. A couple of real stand outs up here were Nov 1991 and Jan 1993. Both were quite well forecast. Pretty ironic considering how crude the models were back then compared to now. Dec 2006 was certainly good one also. As for this event...the NWS needs to back away from the widespread 60mph gusts in the Seattle area. The track is wrong and the low is weakening at 4mb every three hours as it moves up the coast. By the time it's to Neah Bay the gradients are quite pedestrian. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 Watching the sat loop, it looks like it has already curved north. Wonder if it s going to stay off the coast farther than models show.Most of the time this is the outcome. They curve north. A good windstorm is just as hard to pull off as snow around here lately. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 Most of the time this is the outcome. They curve north. A good windstorm is just as hard to pull off as snow around here lately. Sadly split flow, fake cold, and warm rain seem normal these days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 You know people's enthusiasm for an "event" is fading when all the people who were posting about it pretty much stop posting about it before it is even due to occur. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 The next two weeks look about as mild and dull as it gets around here. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 I love how Mark Nelsen has to be the father to everyone on the Fox 12 blog comments section.... "There is actually one more run of models tomorrow morning, so I’ll post once more around 10am. As of 11:30pm I’ve turned off comments for the night. I’ll turn them back on tomorrow morning after I post again. Good time to go to bed anyway!" Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 The next two weeks look about as mild and dull as it gets around here. At least the Euro shows a couple decent shots of snow for the mountains next week. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chinook Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 At least the Euro shows a couple decent shots of snow for the mountains next week. I took a little time yesterday to visit the Oregon ski resorts...viewing conditions and webcams. They would be on board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 AS THE LOW LIFTS NWD IT WILL IMPACT WRN OREGON WITH HIGH WINDS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE NWD JUST OFF THE S WA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WIND WILL BE TO THE S OF THE LOW SO THE EVENING TIMING FOR ONSET OF WINDS ACROSS SW WA LOOKS GOOD. HIGH WINDS ON THE COAST APPEAR TO BE A GIVEN WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH...POSSIBLY HIGHER. A WARNING WAS ALREADY ISSUED FOR THE COAST EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE WRF-GFS AND HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL NOW ONLY GRADUALLY FILL THE LOW TO AROUND 978-980 MB AS IT TRACKS TO NEAR TATOOSH BY 06Z TONIGHT (10PM). THE CENTRAL PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE DEEP ENOUGH AND ALSO COMBINED WITH A MESO LOW ON THE NE SIDE OF THE OLYMPICS TO GIVE A PERIOD OF BORDERLINE HIGH WINDS TO THE INTERIOR INCLUDING PUGET SOUND. MOST LIKELY THE HIGH WINDS WILL OCCUR AS GUSTS TO ABOUT 60 OR 65 MPH BASED ON THE 925 MB FLOW PEAKING AROUND 50-55 KT WHICH MAY SURFACE AT TIMES GIVEN THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE REGION...DOWNED TREES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH POWER OUTAGES. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 some how i do not buy that. the new updated warning states that we central sound will start gettings winds around 6pm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 The CFS-V2..might be just a tad overdone on January.. A Younger Dryas encore? Lol http://catchmypicture.com/f/3xaUMF/800.jpg Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 "MOST LIKELY THE HIGH WINDS WILL OCCUR AS GUSTS TO ABOUT 60 OR 65 MPH BASED ON THE 925 MB FLOW PEAKING AROUND 50-55 KT WHICH MAY SURFACE AT TIMES GIVEN THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE REGION...DOWNED TREES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH POWER OUTAGES." I personally see 40 to 45 gusts in Seattle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 The CFS-V2..might be just a tad overdone on January.. http://catchmypicture.com/f/3xaUMF/800.jpgGonna call bs Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 The CFS-V2..might be just a tad overdone on January.. http://catchmypicture.com/f/3xaUMF/800.jpgThat is impossible that virtually means the whole western hemisphere is colder than normal! where did el nino go? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 The next two weeks look about as mild and dull as it gets around here.Just as predicted... Bummer. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 Good morning everybody, I just woke up. I slept around 5am this morning. I just looked at the new 12z WRF-GFS 4km and it's still game on for a major windstorm in the Willamette Valley. Take a look at what the WRF shows at 2pm this afternoon. Very strong wind gust of up to 65 knots or 75 mph are going to occur in most of the Willamette Valley, this should spread later into the PDX metro area. Right now is the "calm before the storm", things should start picking up soon. http://oi62.tinypic.com/keur1x.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 Ummmm....What about this CFSv2? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20141211.201501.gif Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 11, 2014 Report Share Posted December 11, 2014 That is impossible that virtually means the whole western hemisphere is colder than normal! where did el nino go?Lol. It's called a feedback loop, and it's almost certainly an error. It has happened in the geologic past, though. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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