December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

January 1943 was a pretty cold and snowy month, 4 feet is likely an exaggeration but 2 feet isn't.

it would be nice to know the facts. Could of been a kitsap hood canal big one. Like feb of 1995 I think. There was 3 feet plus near hood canal at sea level.

[Phil]

It the 12z Euro is correct w/ the wave train/NAO, the PV will be blown to bits, followed by resurgence of the -EPO under a favorable BDC/TF response. If the GFS is correct..well, let's hope it's not..

[luvssnow_spokane]

Off topic. Was 1943 a nasty winter around the northwest? A customer came in to my shop friday and he was around 90yrs old. He told me he has lived in port orchard since 1940 so of course I had weather question. I asked what was the deepest snow he had seen in town and without hesitation he said there was 4 ft in 1943!. Said power was out for 2 weeks. Wow imagine if that happened today.

Looks pretty cold and snowy...

 

"On January 15, 1943, snow and a cold snap hits Puget Sound and is the worst cold weather in more than 20 years. War production ceases, schools and stores close, and the U.S. Army temporarily lifts restrictions on weather reports. On Friday, January 15, 1943, snow began falling throughout Puget Sound, but what was obvious to residents could not be reported in the media. Wartime restrictions on information prohibited weather reports. The Seattle Post-Intelligencer had some fun with the regulations."

 

link to photos and details: http://www.historylink.org/index.cfm?DisplayPage=output.cfm&file_id=3623

[Gradient Keeper]

Jesus Christ on a Christmas cracker! is anyone else anxious for 00z runs tonight?

[Front Ranger]

Some official snowfall totals around the Puget Sound/Hood Canal area in Jan 1943.

 

Shelton: 28.4"

Wauna: 19"

Cushman Dam: 37.6"

Bremerton: 15.9"

Vashon Island: 18"

Keyport: 18"

Sequim: 16"

Olympia: 16"

[Bedonbye]

It the 12z Euro is correct w/ the wave train/NAO, the PV will be blown to bits, followed by resurgence of the -EPO under a favorable BDC/TF response. If the GFS is correct..well, let's hope it's not..

do you really think us small people know what the wave train/NAO THE PV , -EPO , BDC/TF IS. YOU THINK THAT YOU ARE SO SMART. lets dummy down a little so that I a common folk can understand your smartness.

[Bedonbye]

if know one understands what you post. why post

[Deweydog]

if know one understands what you post. why post

I don't understand this post.

[Bedonbye]

dog dew is correct we don't understand weather phil

[Gradient Keeper]

do you really think us small people know what the wave train/NAO THE PV , -EPO , BDC/TF IS. YOU THINK THAT YOU ARE SO SMART. lets dummy down a little so that I a common folk can understand your smartness.

 

 

if know one understands what you post. why post

 

 

I don't understand this post.

All of these posts make me more confused than a retarded virgin in a ** house....

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 35 minutes
00z GEM 1 hours 5 minutes
00z ECMWF 3 hours 3 minutes

[Bedonbye]

 sorry DEWEYDOG I AM lol. I love your since of humar

[Bedonbye]

anyone know what it well cost me to view the GFS after Jan. 15 2014

[jaya]

It the 12z Euro is correct w/ the wave train/NAO, the PV will be blown to bits, followed by resurgence of the -EPO under a favorable BDC/TF response. If the GFS is correct..well, let's hope it's not..

Please explain. I really don't know what is being said here. Thanks from a professional met!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Jesus Christ on a Christmas cracker! is anyone else anxious for 00z runs tonight?

Nah...*yawn*

[Gradient Keeper]

Please explain. I really don't know what is being said here. Thanks from a professional met!

I agree. Break things down a bit more, Phil.....

[The Swamp]

do you really think us small people know what the wave train/NAO THE PV , -EPO , BDC/TF IS. YOU THINK THAT YOU ARE SO SMART. lets dummy down a little so that I a common folk can understand your smartness.

How them wind charts look out to 364 hours?

[wx_statman]

Off topic. Was 1943 a nasty winter around the northwest? A customer came in to my shop friday and he was around 90yrs old. He told me he has lived in port orchard since 1940 so of course I had weather question. I asked what was the deepest snow he had seen in town and without hesitation he said there was 4 ft in 1943!. Said power was out for 2 weeks. Wow imagine if that happened today.

That was a great stretch for the PNW in January 1943. Single day snowfalls of 14.4" at PDX and 10.0" at Newport still stand as all time records.

[Gradient Keeper]

How them wind charts look out to 364 hours?

Briskerly and variable

[FroYoBro]

 sorry DEWEYDOG I AM lol. I love your since of humar

 I have nothing to say. Just wanted to quote this. 

[GHweatherChris]

If the 00Z goes arctic like the 12Z, then we have something to kinda get turned on by.

 

However, I would love to see something really good inside 192 hours as a start.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS has begun

We need a $ money run delivering the goods. Cautiously optimistic, but not confident based on little Ensemble support.

[Gradient Keeper]

If the 00Z goes arctic like the 12Z, then we have something to kinda get turned on by.

 

However, I would love to see something really good inside 192 hours.

Yeah, agreed.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 48 Op

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122100/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 60 and I'm only posting this frame to show the much stronger low west of Juneau undergoing strong cyclogenesis.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122100/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

[GHweatherChris]

HR 60 and I'm only posting this frame to show the much stronger low west of Juneau undergoing strong cyclogenesis.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122100/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

Still amazing that the 1002 low south of the Great Lakes may bomb out into the 960's.

[Bedonbye]

How them wind charts look out to 364 hours?

like your ugly face

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 60 Parallel, interestingly is not as deep with that low, nor the Kamchatka storm

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122100/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 84 Op

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122100/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_15.png

[Gradient Keeper]

At HR 90 Kamchatka low bombs towards 950mb, but holds back in the western Bering Sea.

[Gradient Keeper]

Stupid question time!

 

If 00z (Midnight "Zulu," or Greenwich Mean Time) is 4:00 p.m. PST, then why do the "00z" models come out at 7:35, 8:05, and 10:00 p.m. PST?  Does the term "00z" refer to when the data starts being processed as opposed to when the model runs are actually released?

 

Thanks

It's not a stupid question, but I wish I could better answer it. It makes sense what you're saying that model data initialization begins at 4 PM.

[TT-SEA]

Stupid question time!

 

If 00z (Midnight "Zulu," or Greenwich Mean Time) is 4:00 p.m. PST, then why do the "00z" models come out at 7:35, 8:05, and 10:00 p.m. PST?  Does the term "00z" refer to when the data starts being processed as opposed to when the model runs are actually released?

 

Thanks

 

 

It refers to the data initialization time.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 120

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122100/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_21.png

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I am guessing the data is created at 00Z.  The data has to be sent to other computers for the model runs--and that takes time.  That's my cut on it--but I'm not sure

[GHweatherChris]

Ah ha!  And then perhaps it takes the NWS several additional hours to analyze the model outputs, which is why the forecast which incorporates the 00z models doesn't come out until around 3 a.m. PST (only one hour before the next model run begins at 12z)?  I've always wondered why the times don't seem to match up better.

And Poulsbo Snowman has a good take on it as well, initialization is the start point of data, the outcome being  outputted takes time.

[Bedonbye]

I  went skiing today at white pass. lots of bumps do to lack of snow. I took my old skies and they took a beaten do too lack of snow

[GHweatherChris]

Kamchatka low is stronger at hr 138.

 

Edit: It is really starting to look like the Kamchatka low is the real driver on the upcoming pattern.  

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 150

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122100/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_26.png

[Phil]

do you really think us small people know what the wave train/NAO THE PV , -EPO , BDC/TF IS. YOU THINK THAT YOU ARE SO SMART. lets dummy down a little so that I a common folk can understand your smartness.

Cool it, seriously. This stuff is pretty basic.

[Gradient Keeper]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122100/gfs_z500a_namer_26.png