Gradient Keeper Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 Focusing right now with the initial trough HR 54-72...as it's fairly close to dropping some goodies down over us... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 Focusing right now with the initial trough HR 54-72...as it's real close to dropping some goodies down over us... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 Kinda wish I was in Vegas today. 41 and cloudy right now. But there might be other reasons to want to be in Vegas on New Years Eve! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 So, if I said "I hope the models show blocking after HR 180 between 140-150 W, then maybe we'll get some goodies." That would bother you? DJ we have mostly had poop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 41 and cloudy right now. But there might be other reasons to want to be in Vegas on New Years Eve! Yeah, they get days like this in most winters. It's not as mild there as most people think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 Yeah, they get days like this in most winters. It's not as mild there as most people think. We were there in January 2013. People were absolutely debilitated by a breezy 40 degrees. Seriously. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 Nice....and not that surprising considering everything. The thing that's really impressive is how consistently good the analog composites have been. I like our chances, but I'm certainly not ready to make any kind of firm call for another cold wave just yet.Agreed and perfect approach to take on this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 How about 1948-49? 1949-50? 1955-56? 1971-72?All featured baroclinic PVs..no data on 1948-49, though Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 We were there in January 2013. People were absolutely debilitated by a breezy 40 degrees. Seriously. The 4 inches there in 2008 shut the city down. Lots of transplants and idiot tourists think that because it's the desert and there's palm trees, it can't get wintry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 We were there in January 2013. People were absolutely debilitated by a breezy 40 degrees. Seriously.We were in Palm Springs and the same thing happened. I think it's based on people's expectations because most people there are from some place cold. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 You need a break.I am totally fine and enjoying this beautiful weather. My favorite winter weather is sunny and chilly... even without snow. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 Back to Weather.... HR 384 on the Op sure looks weird! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014123118/gfs_z500a_namer_49.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 Back to Weather.... HR 384 on the Op sure looks weird! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014123118/gfs_z500a_namer_49.png The current pattern is also strange so it should be discounted. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 .. As goes the weather. Evidently. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 Here are the analogs for the upcoming pattern based on the 12Z GFS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs610.gif Seems like there are some good ones in there... just not seeing the models blink yet. I am actually more hopeful for snow and cold because Jim says something is coming... I don't know much about tropical forcings but it seems like our window might be open longer. I have no problem with his analysis. He might be right... and I hope he is. But of all people.. he should know why people would get down about the weather. Personally... I already love this winter. An incredible number of dry days and sunshine hours since November 1st. Much like last year... and the opposite of 2012-13. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 -AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICESEATTLE WA300 PM PST WED DEC 31 2014.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE DRY WEATHERTHROUGH THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A WEAK FRONT WILLREACH WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG WARMFRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR212 PM PST WED DEC 31 2014.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEWYEAR...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO SEASONABLELEVELS BY THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN THE LOWLEVEL FLOW SLOWLY ONSHORE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLYPRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN OUR FAR NORTHERN AND CASCADEDZONES LATER FRI INTO SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLELATER IN THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. ... Medford.http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day image/GOES-10-2100B.jpghttp://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=58897 (post no. 43).. What we're looking at more currently, per my view, is colder air's, more primary, having moved retrograde WSW, the result of a "blast" of more Arctic based cold having moved southward, more originally resting over Northern Central Asia. .And, with this cold's, if where having been more mainly focused and headed, having been limited where having been moving more directly south, to the only more northern mid-latitudes more to the East. This with the cold more over the greater West at this point, more residual, having been allowed to "drift" WSW, with over-all cold air's more through the mid-latitudes more at and to this point and over the past several days, having been slowing its main pace and progress more eastward. ... (.. cont., further ahead, post no. 7726. … With graphic animations.) Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 Here are the analogs for the upcoming pattern based on the 12Z GFS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs610.gif Seems like there are some good ones in there... just not seeing the models blink yet. I am actually more hopeful for snow and cold because Jim says something is coming... I don't know much about tropical forcings but it seems like our window might be open longer. I have no problem with his analysis. He might be right... and I hope he is.I should do my homework, but I only know the Dec 1998 event well out of all those analogs. I wouldn't mind a repeat of that one. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 ... Not yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 The 4 inches there in 2008 shut the city down. Lots of transplants and idiot tourists think that because it's the desert and there's palm trees, it can't get wintry.It felt very appropriate for the surroundings to us. Got down into the 20's a couple nights. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 ... Not yetThat Jim and Tim share a beer and a laugh? 35 currently at work, probably around 33 at my house I would imagine. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 Maybe we go the other route... crush the block and get to cold maritime influence. At least the mountains would be buried and maybe something else will evolve. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_192_500_vort_ht.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 Maybe we go the other route... crush the block and get to cold maritime influence. At least the mountains would be buried and maybe something else will evolve. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_192_500_vort_ht.gifThe return of halo boy! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 Sledding on Monday with some relatives from San Diego... highly suggest doing this to get a snow fix. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 The return of halo boy! BS. Absolutely stand by my comments. I am not saying anything is wrong with the analysis... I have no idea what will happen. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 So did the 18z improve at all over the 12z for this weekend? I want to keep seeing slight improvements! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 So did the 18z improve at all over the 12z for this weekend? I want to keep seeing slight improvements! Does not appear so... but I like you liking your own comment! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 Sounds a bit promising if I am reading this correctly. PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKSNWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD300 PM EST WED DECEMBER 31 20148-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 08 - 14 2015 TODAY'S MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS WITHIN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. A PREDICTED RIDGE OVER ALASKA FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CANADA, HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, KEEPING A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITHIN THE CONUS. THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR THE MODELS TO LOWER 500-HPA HEIGHTS IN THE WEST BETWEEN THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THE MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PREDICTED OVER THE PACIFIC AT MID-LATITUDES SHOULD REDUCE CHANCES OF THE COLD CANADIAN AIR FILTERING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, MUCH OF WESTERN CANADA IS PREDICTED TO BE UNDER NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, AND ANY INTENSIFICATION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH COULD BRING COLD AIR FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THUS, CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN MAY BE EXPECTED FROM THE RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION. FORECASTER: DAVE UNGER 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 The mildness (during the day) you're referring to is generally confined to the Western Basin. Last Saturday those areas in NW flow were rain-shadowed while the East Basin Rise saw 2-4" in snowfall. Much colder over here because of it. 7F currently. Def liking the 6z. Stays cold with snow chances throughout.Wenatchee stayed cold and our trip up to Winthrop stayed cold, temps in the low 20's up to Pateros. Once we headed up to the Methow Valley temps dropped all the way up. Winthrop was 14f when we pulled in at 1pm. About a foot of snow on the ground. Great powder. Almost two feet at 2,800ft at Sun Mountain Lodge. Temp down to 10f right now, headed to near zero. Got to love the low humidity. Absolutely the place to live if you like cold and snow. Magnificent place. Saw numerous bald eagles. Caught one with the camera feeding on a coyote kill of a mule deer. Wild turkeys roaming through peoples yards in town. I do a lot of bird photography and I'm in Heaven with all the raptors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 That Jim and Tim share a beer and a laugh? 35 currently at work, probably around 33 at my house I would imagine.Not a bad idea 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 Sounds a bit promising if I am reading this correctly. PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKSNWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD300 PM EST WED DECEMBER 31 20148-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 08 - 14 2015 TODAY'S MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS WITHIN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. A PREDICTED RIDGE OVER ALASKA FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CANADA, HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, KEEPING A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITHIN THE CONUS. THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR THE MODELS TO LOWER 500-HPA HEIGHTS IN THE WEST BETWEEN THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THE MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PREDICTED OVER THE PACIFIC AT MID-LATITUDES SHOULD REDUCE CHANCES OF THE COLD CANADIAN AIR FILTERING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, MUCH OF WESTERN CANADA IS PREDICTED TO BE UNDER NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, AND ANY INTENSIFICATION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH COULD BRING COLD AIR FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THUS, CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN MAY BE EXPECTED FROM THE RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION. FORECASTER: DAVE UNGER Sounds encouraging perhaps..... I see 18z GFS 6-10 and 8-14 day Analog Composite continues to look excellent for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Jesse Posted January 1, 2015 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 Decent cold event out this way the past few days. 39/29 on Monday, 29/23 yesterday and 30/21 today. No snow but it looks like the surrounding mountains received a lot above 2,500'. Heading into town tonight to celebrate. I am also planning to propose to my girlfriend when the clock strikes midnight! Hope everyone has a safe/happy New Year! 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 Sounds encouraging perhaps..... I see 18z GFS 6-10 and 8-14 day Analog Composite continues to look excellent for us. The consistently good analog composites have to mean something. In reality the 18z GFS comes close to getting good a couple of times. That one situation around day 9 is especially interesting. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 Decent cold event out this way the past few days. 39/29 on Monday, 29/23 yesterday and 30/21 today. No snow but it looks like the surrounding mountains received a lot above 2,500'. Heading into town tonight to celebrate. I am also planning to propose to my girlfriend when the clock strikes midnight! Hope everyone has a safe/happy New Year! Congrats! Also...nice little cold snap you have going out there. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 Decent cold event out this way the past few days. 39/29 on Monday, 29/23 yesterday and 30/21 today. No snow but it looks like the surrounding mountains received a lot above 2,500'. Heading into town tonight to celebrate. I am also planning to propose to my girlfriend when the clock strikes midnight! Hope everyone has a safe/happy New Year!That is awesome dude. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 One thing we know for sure....2015 will average below normal for at least some period of time during its existence! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 That is awesome dude. Thanks buddy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 Decent cold event out this way the past few days. 39/29 on Monday, 29/23 yesterday and 30/21 today. No snow but it looks like the surrounding mountains received a lot above 2,500'. Heading into town tonight to celebrate. I am also planning to propose to my girlfriend when the clock strikes midnight! Hope everyone has a safe/happy New Year! Congrats! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 snow_wizard, on 31 Dec 2014 - 4:54 PM, said:One thing we know for sure....2015 will average below normal for at least some period of time during its existence!Yeah, at least through most of the day tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 Interesting! This is purely computer generated, but it goes to show the stuff I've been talking about has some merit. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 1, 2015 Report Share Posted January 1, 2015 Decent cold event out this way the past few days. 39/29 on Monday, 29/23 yesterday and 30/21 today. No snow but it looks like the surrounding mountains received a lot above 2,500'. Heading into town tonight to celebrate. I am also planning to propose to my girlfriend when the clock strikes midnight! Hope everyone has a safe/happy New Year! Congratulations! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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