MossMan Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: December isn’t all that far away if you really think about it... 2008 redux! 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, Deweydog said: December isn’t all that far away if you really think about it... So true... February seemed like an eternity away when the 1988-89 analogs were flying around last fall but here we are! 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Major dumpage again. Pretty soon I am going to be complaining about this nonstop rain like it was early February 2018 all over again. 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 For the most part, models still really suck beyond 5 days. 2 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 2, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, wxmet said: I suppose if it doesn't show a stalled out snow storm over the PNW with crashing 500mb heights then it's a dud run. If you want people to fire up the cheering section for a run that essentially showed climo at the tail end of a terrible winter, then have it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 00z ECMWF Day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 This could qualify as the highest model uncertainty of the past 10 years at least. With the 0z runs tonight there were significant changes even before day 5. The biggy is the low in the vicinity of Hawaii cuts off more fully which sets the stage for the possibility of a cold pattern emerging within a week. This is supported by a number of ensemble members. I for one cant wait to see how this all plays out! I wonder when the models the models will finally settle down an arrive at some kind of consensus. Right now the run to run consistency is amazingly poor. 5 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: So true... February seemed like an eternity away when the 1988-89 analogs were flying around last fall but here we are! We can put 1988-89 as an analog to rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z ECMWF Day 1 Not bad! Unfortunately it’s not 9-10 days out. 1 2 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: If you want people to fire up the cheering section for a run that essentially showed climo at the tail end of a terrible winter, then have it.... Climo is refreshing in a torch fest winter. Bread crumbs are a banquet to a starving man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, Snowdrift said: We can put 1988-89 as an analog to rest. It actually wasn’t/isn’t terrible if your reference is the large scale/NH picture. The details were very different, however. 1 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 19 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: There's always the possibility for a change in the models. Analyzing that run in a straightforward or objective context would reveal that it was largely mild and poor for snow chances in the region. A "dud run". It need not be controversial to point that out. And the CMC looks nothing like the GFS. 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Not bad! Unfortunately it’s not 9-10 days out. I agree... that pattern shown at day 1 looks like it has tons of potential. No chance it verifies though. 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 2, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Snowdrift said: Climo is refreshing in a torch fest winter. Bread crumbs are a banquet to a starving man. Winter 2020-21!! 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Holy crap! Talk about a bad hair day on the 0z ensemble! Those members are all over the place. A lot of cold ones for sure. Incredibly complicated pattern coming up. 1 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 IMO it would be ridiculous to throw in the towel at this point, but that's just me. 2 1 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 9 minutes ago, Phil said: It actually wasn’t/isn’t terrible if your reference is the large scale/NH picture. The details were very different, however. I remember it well. The details were far different at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Winter 2020-21!! I just recently figured out the primus does the theme song for South Park lol. 3 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Getting some heavy rain on and off. Up to 0.67” on the day. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Day 4 HUGE changes! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 The day 4 surface pressure configuration over the GOA on this run is worlds better than last night's day 5 on the ECMWF. Amazing to see that kind of change at such close range. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 00z EURO Day 4 last night, tonight 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 2, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: I just recently figured out the primus does the theme song for South Park lol. Primus sucks! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Looks a lot different. People in Minot will be staying in and watching Lawrence Welk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Day 5 But of course the base of the ridge isn't favorable.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 I suspect Day 5-6 the ridge weakens too much to give support for that shortwave over SE Alaska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Day 6 Yep. Just like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Baby steps! 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 6 Yep. Just like the GFS Such a strange pattern... and totally different than previous runs and yet the 00Z GFS and ECMWF runs actually agree almost perfectly at that time. 3 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 That Greenland block is really something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 2, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Primus sucks! I see some of you took offense to this. Newbs! https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/does-primus-really-suck-249254/ Les Claypool is bomb. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said: 0.56” of rain today, 47/43°F. I missed the rain, it has a sort of quiet dignity to it.. Wow... I totally was totally off. It looks like the watershed station has an issue with the rain gauge under-reporting now. I see now that there was .66 in North Bend. Today was definitely wetter than previous days but it seemed like it was very light rain during the day. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Yup it’s about to get chilly in a lot of places starting in 4-5 days. That’s an effective pattern for mobile polar high production. 2 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Day 7 .... and yeah. Make sure you have a new, clean barf bag nearby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 ICON will lead the way for the first time ever!! 2 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 7 .... and yeah. Make sure you have a new, clean barf bag nearby. How lovely! It looks a bit like projectile vomit. Alaska had too much vodka from Putin's liquor cabinet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 13 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 6 Yep. Just like the GFS Ecmwf still shows a big Nor’easter during the SuperBowl. New England might not be able to watch their favorite son try and win his 7th Super Bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 There’s like no precipitation anywhere by D7. Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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