February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[snow_wizard]

This is a really fascinating scenario coming up.  When the NAO and PNA blocks merge with each other it allows energy to freely pass from one block to the other.  The challenge for the models will be to decipher how the transfer of energy will evolve.  I'm just pleased we have a realistic shot at a good outcome when all is said and and done.  I'm not getting as worked up about this as in the past, because I'm getting it shown to me in no uncertain terms over the past year there are things more important than cold weather.

For now I'm just enjoying seeing some great possibilities in the model world.

[Tyler Mode]

I keep seeing these maps from 10-14 days away...but looking at the ensembles, you'd be a fool to believe anything past day 5 at this point.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is now at 32% of the average rainfall for the entire month of February... and we just started the second day of the month.  

Just need another 2.47 over the next 27 days to get to normal.     

[snow_wizard]

Pretty significant cold snap on the 12z GFS.  Did anyone really think the 0z would be where the model roller coaster would stop?

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty significant cold snap on the 12z GFS.  Did anyone really think the 0z would be where the model roller coaster would stop?

Does anyone really think the 12Z run will verify either?  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Incredible TRENDZ

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Incredible TRENDZ

This is one time when there aren't really any trends.   Each run seems to be completely opposite of the last run. 

[jakerepp]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Incredible TRENDZ

I think you mean #TRENDZ

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SNOW

[MWG]

23 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Was anybody else below normal for rainfall in Jan? I ask because it seems weird that we were over an inch below normal here and I am looking through ACIS and can’t find any stations even close. Maybe the weather station at KEUG is busted.

Rainfall total for January in Medford was 1.98 of an inch. Normal is 2.43 so 0.45 of an inch below average. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

I keep seeing these maps from 10-14 days away...but looking at the ensembles, you'd be a fool to believe anything past day 5 at this point.

Ain't that the truth!  As long as things are extremely blocky we have an above average chance of scoring...especially given the base state and the MJO wave.  Last night I was thinking about why I'm so confident we will score before it's over...

1. cold ENSO

2. positive QBO

3. favorable MJO

4. second half of La Nina winter

5. first half of La Nina winter torched (very often leads to big second half or late winter)

6. extreme weather happening in the Eastern United States (usually precedes us getting hit in a Nina winter)

7. recent Siberian SSW event

8. recent major blocking and major blocking projected to continue

In short if we don't get hit it would really be defying the odds.  No question that has happened before, but this is about as good as it gets for number of aces in the deck so to speak.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEFS at day 10... 

[Omegaraptor]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Ain't that the truth!  As long as things are extremely blocky we have an above average chance of scoring...especially given the base state and the MJO wave.  Last night I was thinking about why I'm so confident we will score before it's over...

1. cold ENSO

2. positive QBO

3. favorable MJO

4. second half of La Nina winter

5. first half of La Nina winter torched (very often leads to big second half or late winter)

6. extreme weather happening in the Eastern United States (usually precedes us getting hit in a Nina winter)

7. recent Siberian SSW event

8. recent major blocking and major blocking projected to continue

In short if we don't get hit it would really be defying the odds.  No question that has happened before, but this is about as good as it gets for number of aces in the deck so to speak.

You do make a good point on 5. In late January of 2019 the Plains and Midwest got a massive Arctic blast. What happened afterwards?

Models have hinted for a long time now that this may be a multiple barreled event. The pattern is finally favorable to build cold in western Canada and that’s what we want to see.

[MossMan]

Son of a...

[SalemDuck]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEFS at day 10... 

Signal is all over the place after day 8. Here are temps at that time. Going to see a lot of volatility the rest of this week.

[MossMan]

Crazy to think we have been chasing this carrot since late December...

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

 

The scary part is that that's against the pathetic 1991-2020 norms.

Yes. I never even thought of that. Yikes. 

[Skagit Weather]

It is raining rather aggressively outside currently. Honestly might even be a little texture it in with temps around 40F. 0.18" on the day, 2.80" in the last three days. Looks like we could get another 1"+ in the next day.

[TT-SEA]

38 and raining now in Tahoe...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really good news today. Keep it coming!

[SalemDuck]

The models really are all over the place with the handling of the ridge as early as day 3

[Slushy Inch]

Woah now Euro, don't make us lose our minds. Euro vs GFS

[Phil]

Euro is gonna try something. 

[Slushy Inch]

Serious differences showing up in 12z Euro.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

A little better...

C'mon GOA ridge...pump it up, pump it up!!!!

[Slushy Inch]

If this trend continues the 18z gfs or the 00z runs could be really good. What big changes at just 120 hours.

[TT-SEA]

The issue is that the block is rapidly floating away on the ECMWF... and this has been a theme over the last couple runs.  

That block is making a beeline for the arctic circle on the 12Z ECMWF and that is a deal killer for us.

 

[snow drift]

Meanwhile, I start the month with two 50 burgers. I swear I live in a subtropical climate. Depending on the criteria used, Spokane Valley now qualifies as a Mediterranean climate. Otherwise, it is classified as a humid continental climate with dry summers.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The issue is that the block is rapidly floating away on the ECMWF... and this has been a theme over the last couple runs.  

That block is making a beeline for the arctic circle on the 12Z ECMWF and that is a deal killer for us.

 

I don't trust what happens after 120hrs much when there's such big changes. But yes that is a problem, that trough needs to go south not west.

[snow drift]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The issue is that the block is rapidly floating away on the ECMWF... and this has been a theme over the last couple runs.  

That block is making a beeline for the arctic circle on the 12Z ECMWF and that is a deal killer for us.

 

The block will float away, and we'll get lots of rain.

[AlTahoe]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

38 and raining now in Tahoe...

 

My snowpack went from 36" to 18" since last Friday. 2 straight days of 50F weather and a 20-40mph south wind will do that.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Snowdrift said:

The block will float away, and we'll get lots of rain.

Yeah... that is what this run shows.

12Z ECMWF has highs in the upper 40s on Sunday and mid 40s on Monday in the Seattle area with rain and those are the days with the coldest air mass before the block vanishes.

 

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The issue is that the block is rapidly floating away on the ECMWF... and this has been a theme over the last couple runs.  

That block is making a beeline for the arctic circle on the 12Z ECMWF and that is a deal killer for us.

 

You’re gonna have to wait awhile for spring, my friend.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

You’re gonna have to wait awhile for spring, my friend.

And this is related to the current discussion of the next 10 days how?

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The issue is that the block is rapidly floating away on the ECMWF... and this has been a theme over the last couple runs.  

That block is making a beeline for the arctic circle on the 12Z ECMWF and that is a deal killer for us.

 

Just one day later... the block is completely gone.   It starts the process of floating away on day 3 and by day 7 its off the map onto the side of the globe.  

 

[MossMan]

Tim is not onboard. 
Andrew is onboard. 

[GeorgeWx]

12 hours ago, Snowdrift said:

They've got another gnarly looking storm waiting in the wings.

12z Ecmwf not backing off with the big Nor’easter on Super Bowl Sunday. I can’t imagine anything that would suck more than this for New England. Getting slammed with snow and not being able to watch Tom Brady win his 7th Super Bowl

[ShawniganLake]

Nice vortex back up in Alaska there

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Tim is not onboard. 
Andrew is onboard. 

Its just that we have to perfectly thread the needle as the block shifts rapidly northward (shown on all models now)... that is what the GFS showed.   But the GEFS and the ECMWF disagree.   It seems like a tall order to me.     I would be more optimistic if the block was solid and stable... but that is not what is shown in the models.

[snow drift]

6 hours ago, smerfylicious said:

Well it's nice at least to see snowfall and cold records falling across the US. Maybe we'll get our turn next year

We say that every year.