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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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15 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

Who? Did a member of the group pass away?

It’s my pet name for inversion season.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No idea who the **** that is. Was it COVID related? :(

Google it. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Google it. 

I don't care, but you seem sad. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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29 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

So, in a sense, those years are noise. January 1985 had a strong inversion. We were cold despite the ridging. Oh well.

 

Not necessarily. There are cases where anomalous patterns are indicative of something on the larger scale. But those patterns can indeed be “noise” as well. It’s never straightforward.

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19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't care, but you seem sad. 

I don't have any opinion on Dustin Diamond... but it actually is sad when someone in their 40s finds out they have cancer and then they are dead a couple weeks later.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't have any opinion on Dustin Diamond... but it actually is sad when someone in their 40s finds out they have cancer and then they are dead a couple weeks later.

That is terrible. Probably a surprise given my naturally optimistic nature, but I think about things like that all the time.  

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That is terrible. Probably a surprise given my naturally optimistic nature, but I think about things like that all the time.  

Yeah... sadly I do as well.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

It's gonna get cold somewhere.

gfs_T850_ncus_24.thumb.png.46733e3870c926aaa4c7e3f75ec80971.png

Buying plane tickets to the Twin Cities, as we speak. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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18z does not disappoint!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_44.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Modified arctic air, POURS into the region. ;)

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Outstanding run. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Nice to see the drunk uncle can still deliver the GOODS. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_55.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice to see the drunk uncle can still deliver the GOODS. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_55.png

He brings the fireworks regardless of the holiday. All the days ending in -y qualify as holidays. Of course he always has a bottle of Wild Turkey nearby-to just wet his whistle. He's reliably unreliable. He needs a haircut. He needs to attend AA. And he needs a decent job like his brother the 12z.

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Seems like the 18Z run did the same thing yesterday... maybe its on to something?  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Up over 1/2” of rain on the day. Wettest day since 1/12. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-5.26”

Cold season rainfall-32.08”

Snowfall-15.5”

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Pretty passable 18z run to say the least.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty passable 18z run to say the least.

Thought you might like it. ;)

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

My fear has been when the pattern finally gets good for us it will be the end of February. 

That's my fear too. 1955 got good in late February. 

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2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

My fear has been when the pattern finally gets good for us it will be the end of February. 

Or early march. We can get decent snow events in the first half of the month but it’d be pretty hard to get sub freezing highs by that point. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-5.26”

Cold season rainfall-32.08”

Snowfall-15.5”

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One thing that seems to be consistently showing up on the models today is a reset of the Kona low early in week two.  Good to see that.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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39 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That is terrible. Probably a surprise given my naturally optimistic nature, but I think about things like that all the time.  

I do too....very long time friend/co-worker of mine got laid off in April (very close to retirement), I saw him in late July and he was in great spirits, and said "I just need a job that has health insurance, I don't care if it pays minimum wage, I just gotta get out from under the Cobra payments"

A few weeks later he was diagnosed with stage 4 pancreatic cancer that had metastasized to his liver.  He did treatment to get a few months extra and currently on hospice, I'm surprised he made it through the weekend, will be surprised if he makes it to the end of the week...

Cancer sucks, but the super silent cancers like ovarian cancer and pancreatic cancer are the worst.....

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4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

My fear has been when the pattern finally gets good for us it will be the end of February. 

As long as it’s a top tier airmass like 2011 or 2018 late February would still be doable. Had several below freezing highs with deep snowcover with those events. 

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7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

My fear has been when the pattern finally gets good for us it will be the end of February. 

If you're talking about years like 1852, 1865, 1870, 1897, 1951, 1955, 1971, 2011, etc that can still work.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Well if we get anything it is going to be a bit late, but never late then never. Even what we got in late February 2018 coming 7-10 days earlier would be pretty solid. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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There are places in NJ that already have 2 feet of accumulation. Going to snow through tomorrow evening there. I think 40”+ is possible.

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34 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Cold cold mornings and many sub freezing highs in 2018! 
Was 18 degrees when I took that sunrise pic on 2/21/18. Had a high of 29. 

796AB00B-DB40-4F6A-B3C3-674CF01D0390.jpeg

224892AE-DA77-4433-9D78-6BC8A93F9AF0.jpeg

Coldest day Silver Falls recorded was 31/16 on the 23rd. It was a nice stretch. We had an 11 day stretch, which went into early March where the warmest max was 38. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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