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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

No Super Bowl magic this year. ūüėě

Maybe Brady and Mahomes will provide the magic.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe Brady and Mahomes will provide the magic.

So proud of what Tom has been able to accomplish this year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Let's keep the momentum going with the EURO! 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So proud of what Tom has been able to accomplish this year. 

I have come around on him... he won me over. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I have come around on him... he won me over. 

The Tampa defense bailed him out during the NFC Championship game. He threw three interceptions in the 2nd half. Only one was turned into points. 

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37 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems as if Ninas favor the east, as do Ninos, and Neutral ENSO regimes. 

It’s been a warmer than average winter here with below average snowfall so I don’t know what ur talking about.

FWIW there’s not a substantial correlation between ENSO & DJF temps here. It’s mostly for snowfall/storm track.

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Finished January with 7.47", only 8 freezes which is probably a record low number for the 30 years I've been tracking.  Lowest temp was only 23, highest was 53 with two days being above 50.  Looking forward to a cold February.

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Man if the GFS is right with that ridge placement we are going to end the winter months with 1 single storm here in Cali. Our only other storm was in early Nov. Looks like this will be a repeat of 1975-1977 for us.

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35 minutes ago, MossMan said:

No Super Bowl magic this year. ūüėě

I'm sure there will be for Lord Brady.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36¬†(Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3¬†(Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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28 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

It looks like we start February with a 50 degree day. We had a 50 degree day in both January and December. It's been such a harsh winter.

Your comments sound so western Washington that I have to keep reminding myself that you are talking from the Spokane area.¬†ūüôĄ

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2 minutes ago, Acer said:

Finished January with 7.47", only 8 freezes which is probably a record low number for the 30 years I've been tracking.  Lowest temp was only 23, highest was 53 with two days being above 50.  Looking forward to a cold February.

I'd be surprised if there wasn't a worse one.  I think I remember a Jan with only 2 or something like that.  Amazingly there was a year in the 1930s where the city of Seattle only had one low of 32 or lower.  That was one messed up decade, with absolutely crazy extremes.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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22 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s been a warmer than average winter here with below average snowfall so I don’t know what ur talking about.

FWIW there’s not a substantial correlation between ENSO & DJF temps here. It’s mostly for snowfall/storm track.

One thing I've noticed is that Nina winters where the East gets hit hard (whether it's just a few short lived big events or an actual cold winter) usually deliver the goods here also.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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The GFS ensemble has one period where  a third of the members are -9 or lower on the 850s.  Pretty good.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing I've noticed is that Nina winters where the East gets hit hard (whether it's just a few short lived big events or an actual cold winter) usually deliver the goods here also.

Could be. Though there is 1999/00, which was a warm winter here (like this one) but had 2 weeks of craziness in the middle.

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The 12Z ECMWF shows its basically dry on Wednesday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.     Maybe a nice weekend as a reward for those who had rain all of this past weekend.     I am talking to you Randy!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The PV that's progged to drop into the upper Midwest and the NE looks really cold.  I hope our turn is next.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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ECMWF sure has changed over the last couple days.

Top image is from the 12Z run on Saturday morning... and the bottom image is the new 12Z run today for the same time. 

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10 (4).png

ecmwf_z500a_namer_8 (1).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Could be. Though there is 1999/00, which was a warm winter here (like this one) but had 2 weeks of craziness in the middle.

Yeah...that was a horrible flop here but there was a close call in January.  All in all the 1998 - 2001 La Nina was horrific for us.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z ECMWF shows its basically dry on Wednesday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.     Maybe a nice weekend as a reward for those who had rain all of this past weekend.     I am talking to you Randy!  

Add in next Monday as well.  

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ECMWF looks great at day 8.  Big GOA block and a Kona low.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The PV that's progged to drop into the upper Midwest and the NE looks really cold.  I hope our turn is next.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.pngBig Nor’easter on Super Bowl Sunday

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This whole thing may go down as a fumble on the 5 yard line followed by miraculous interception and touch down on the next play.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah...that was a horrible flop here but there was a close call in January.  All in all the 1998 - 2001 La Nina was horrific for us.

That was a weird one. Seems the excessively¬†strong multiyear ni√Īas like 1974-76 and 1998-2001 tend to be less impressive in the cold department out there.

I suppose 1949/50 was a strong ni√Īa but it didn‚Äôt span multiple years at that amplitude.

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High amp block in the sweet spot at day 9.  It's going to be interesting to see how the NAO block and PNA block end up interacting during week two.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

This whole thing may go down as a fumble on the 5 yard line followed by miraculous interception and touch down on the next play.

I like that analogy. I would like that result. 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

That was a weird one. Seems the excessively¬†strong multiyear ni√Īas like 1974-76 and 1998-2001 tend to be less impressive in the cold department out there.

I suppose 1949/50 was a strong ni√Īa but it didn‚Äôt span multiple years at that amplitude.

The one multi year Nina that really panned out for us 1954 - 1956.  The 1950s were ridiculous for us.  Cold, cold, and more cold.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

ECMWF looks great at day 8.  Big GOA block and a Kona low.

FWIW 12z is much warmer here vs 00z thanks to the nor’easter (latent heat + advection off Atlantic).

Haven‚Äôt experienced an ‚Äúall¬†snow‚ÄĚ event in two years..really¬†hoping for a powder bomb before swamp¬†season rears it‚Äôs ugly head.

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12Z ECMWF has a decent 500mb pattern... but the 850mb temps are pretty bland.    We have seen this many times recently.  

 

 

ecmwf_T850a_namer_11 (1).png

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ECMWF is really nice at day 10.  Now we just need to keep the positive trend going.  We're fortunate to have another realistic stab at this.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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In fact... the 12Z ECMWF at day 10 (above) looks very similar to day 2 on Wednesday.

 

ecmwf_T850a_namer_3.png

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The one multi year Nina that really panned out for us 1954 - 1956.  The 1950s were ridiculous for us.  Cold, cold, and more cold.

That wasn‚Äôt a multiyear strong ni√Īa, right?¬†IIRC¬†only 1955/56 was strong.

The 1974-76 and 1998-2001 cycles had multiple strong ni√Īa episodes.¬†

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF has a decent 500mb pattern... but the 850mb temps are pretty bland.    We have seen this many times recently.  

 

 

ecmwf_T850a_namer_11 (1).png

As I say getting another stab at the GOA block is a big deal.  Without that we have nothing. The details will sort themselves out.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

In fact... the 12Z ECMWF at day 10 (above) looks very similar to day 2 on Wednesday.

 

ecmwf_T850a_namer_3.png

Well it might snow here tomorrow night. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

As I say getting another stab at the GOA block is a big deal.  Without that we have nothing. The details will sort themselves out.

Yes... the pattern remains favorable for a chances.   We just have a long history of fumbling the ball on the 5-yard line.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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43 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'd be surprised if there wasn't a worse one.  I think I remember a Jan with only 2 or something like that.  Amazingly there was a year in the 1930s where the city of Seattle only had one low of 32 or lower.  That was one messed up decade, with absolutely crazy extremes.

You are probably correct.  I'll have to go check on the January freezes but I know it's gotta be in the bottom 2 or 3 over that span anyway.

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I have a feeling spring might be very chilly out there. Haven’t really dug into things yet, it’s more of a hunch. 

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Just now, Phil said:

I have a feeling spring might be very chilly out there. Haven’t really dug into things yet, it’s more of a hunch. 

Seems almost inevitable.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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If it doesn't hit 50 today that will make 17 days in a row without a high above 48 IMBY.  Could end up being quite a string if we get through today.  Small victory I know, but it's actually somewhat impressive by recent standards.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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In other news... the Nina is looking a weaker right now.   

 

2021.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

If it doesn't hit 50 today that will make 17 days in a row without a high above 48 IMBY.  Could end up being quite a string if we get through today.  Small victory I know, but it's actually somewhat impressive by recent standards.

North Bend broke their streak on Saturday with 51 and then it was 55 yesterday.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... the pattern remains favorable for a chances.   We just have a long history of fumbling the ball on the 5-yard line.  

No doubt about that.  The one thing that argues for some legit cold if the GOA block happens is the fact all of the other indices will be tanked as well.  Hard to not score some continental cold with that combo.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

North Bend broke their streak on Saturday with 51 and then it was 55 yesterday.

The winds stayed really light here and I think we had more wet bulb effect cooling yesterday.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I'd be surprised if there wasn't a worse one.  I think I remember a Jan with only 2 or something like that.  Amazingly there was a year in the 1930s where the city of Seattle only had one low of 32 or lower.  That was one messed up decade, with absolutely crazy extremes.

I just checked and 2006 had only one freeze here.  So 2021 is a pretty close 2nd for freezing futility.  

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