New Year's Weekend Potential Major Winter Storm

[Tony]

^I like this graph...shows heavy snow in our area for 11 days

[tim the weatherman]

the snowman said on his blog that he is not hung up no the ggem model painting north illinois in ice storm.

[Tony]

18z GFS looks like its a go for warning type snows

[tim the weatherman]

.LONG TERM...

304 PM CST
 

WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
 

THE SEASONABLY COLD...BUT DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE

REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  THE COLDEST DAYS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND

THURSDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE UPPER TEENS.  THE

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL COME BY THE WEEKEND.  THE LONGER RANGE

GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON THE IDEA OF A STRONG PACIFIC

SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE

DESERT SOUTHWEST.  THE MODELS HAVE BEE CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING AND

STRENGTH OF THIS DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A

WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS AS TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE

SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE DEGREE OF PHASING OF

THIS SRN STREAM SYSTEM WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY AS IT REACHES THE

MIDWEST.  WHILE THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE COMING

TO A CONSENSUS...THERE IS AT LEAST SOME INTERNAL TEMPORAL AND

STRENGTH CONSISTENCY WITHIN MODELS...WHICH IS PLAYING TOWARD THEIR

MORE TYPICAL BIASES.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST SOLUTION

WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWER SOLUTION.  ALSO...THE GFS IS

TRENDING TOWARD LITTLE PHASING WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY UNTIL THE SRN

STREAM SHORTWAVE IS WELL TO THE EAST...WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION

SHOWS MORE PHASING OCCURRING OVER THE MIDWEST.  UNFORTUNATELY...IT

IS THESE DETAILS THAT KEEP RELATIVE FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW ON THE

EXACT TIMING OF PCPN ONSET AS WELL AS PCPN TYPE AND DURATION.  STILL

TEND TO FAVOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS SWRN CUTOFFS TEND TO LIFT

OUT MUCH SLOWER THAN THE MODELS WANT TO ADVERTISE...AND THIS TREND

CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED IS CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS.  THE LATEST

ECMWF...WHICH DOES EXHIBIT THE PHASING WOULD SUGGEST SFC LOW

DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE MISSOURI BOOT-HEAL BY MID-DAY SATURDAY AND THEN

TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TO WESTERN LAKE ERIE LATE

SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS TYPE PATTERN AND TRACK WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO

AT LEAST SOME SNOW FOR THE AREA...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING

UPWARD TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS RISE IN ADVANCE OF THE CUT-OFF

LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...THERE WILL BE CONCERNS

ABOUT THE LOCATION OF A RAIN-SNOW LINE.  WHILE CONFIDENCE IS STILL

RELATIVELY SLOW DUE TO THE SPREAD OF THE MODEL SOLUTION...A DECISION

NEEDS TO BE MAID...SO HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF

SOLUTION...WHICH WOULD IMPLY THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW

OVER THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF

I-55...WHILE LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SEE A PERIOD OF

ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING OVER TO A

RAIN-SNOW MIX OR RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE CHANGING

BACK OVER TO ALL SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...AND COMING TO AN END SUNDAY

MORNING.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TRACK...TIMING AND

DEGREE OF PHASING OF SRN AND NRN STREAM ENERGY...AM STILL HESITANT

TO TALK ABOUT AMOUNT OF ACCUMULATION...OTHER THAN TO SAY...SOME

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.
 

KREIN

 

[Scott26]

^I like this graph...shows heavy snow in our area for 11 days

It would nice, but that is definitely a typo lol

[Tom]

18z GFS...showing signs of an earlier phase as we can see the streak of snow developing farther SW into KS...

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014123018/gfs_asnow_ncus_33.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014123018/gfs_asnow_us_33.png

[gosaints]

Parallel gfs way left. Have about is much confidence in that model as I do in the ggem. Not much

[Sven]

How about everything shifts 200 miles west bada-bing, bada-boom, we are all happy.

[Money]

Gfs seems pretty snowy in the long range

[FV-Mike]

Caplan showed both the Euro and GFS maps at the 4:00pm newscast. General area of 3-5 across Chicagoland. Did say confidence is growing for first accumulating snowfall

[Tony]

Parallel gfs way left. Have about is much confidence in that model as I do in the ggem. Not much

Unfortunately I think this is the future for the gfs unless they continue to try and upgrade the para. Isn't this supposed to go live shortly?

[NEJeremy]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014123018/gfs_asnow_ncus_33.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014123018/gfs_asnow_us_33.png

 

Look at that nice FAT ZERO over Nebraska. What a joke!!

[tim the weatherman]

Look at that nice FAT ZERO over Nebraska. What a joke!!

it looks like you people in the central plains always get shut out on big snowstorms.

[Money]

That would be pretty funny to see the gfs verify with 0 in se NE lol

[Southeast Iowa]

If the GFS correct looking at a solid 2-6 here. We shall see it been he most constant modal tracking the Saturday storm.

[educatorjen]

That would be pretty funny to see the gfs verify with 0 in se NE lol

It seriously makes me want to cry.  

[tim the weatherman]

it looks like we might have a substantial amounts of snow by the gfs and pgfs.

[Madtown]

I doubt I have 16 inches on the ground by th 7th...just sayin.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014123018/gfsp_asnow_us_41.png

[Geos]

so suburbs are going to get ice? uh oh 

 

If temperatures are marginal for ice then I wouldn't expect much accumulation. If it's one of those rare freezing rain events in the upper 20s or something then there could be problems away from the lake. But that's only if something like the CMC were to come true.

[gosaints]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014123018/gfsp_asnow_us_41.png

Lol ya ok

[East Dubzz]

I believe it's time to lock that one in

[james1976]

Everything looks just to my east. I absolutely hate it. I hate nailbiter systems like this.

[tim the weatherman]

there is a difference between the newest model runs with this according to the gfs no il will have snow for the northren part while south of chicago towards central il will be in the mix while p-gfs has northren illinois goes from a mix to mainly rain.

[bud2380]

Gfs looks similar to 18z run. 3-5" for much of eastern Iowa into n Illinois and much of Wisconsin

[Tom]

00z GFS...N MN gets nailed with the northern stream...

[Geos]

Good to see some agreement in the models finally. I think the track will be zeroed in on a lot earlier than the last storm! haha

[Scott26]

00Z PGFS total snow zoomed in for my Chicago peeps with a wider view as well

[james1976]

Mannnnnnnnnnnnn.....GFS OP is consistently just to my east. Para is a bit more in my favor. NAILBITER!!! Luckily, its a few days away yet so plenty of time.

[Geos]

GGEM sneaking the snowfall a bit further south now.

 

[james1976]

Euro HAS to come north........right??!!!  LOL

[Tom]

GGEM sneaking the snowfall a bit further south now.

 

cmc_snow_acc_east_21.png

Now both the 00z GGEM/EURO showing much more snowfall in KS and seems to be phasing earlier...check out the jet structure @ 00z Jan 4th.  Starting to come together in the central CONUS.

 

Snowfall not that impressive this run....

[Scott26]

Now both the 00z GGEM/EURO showing much more snowfall in KS and seems to be phasing earlier...check out the jet structure @ 00z Jan 4th.  Starting to come together in the central CONUS.

 

Snowfall not that impressive this run....

A general 2-5 inches which is still pretty good. Lets see if this can get juicier as we grow closer, but I'm liking this track.

[Tom]

A general 2-5 inches which is still pretty good. Lets see if this can get juicier as we grow closer, but I'm liking this track.

Exactly, that would still make the scenery look nice.  I think the models are def starting to hone in on a track and the southern stream takes control with this system.

[Grizzcoat]

06Z GFS left and just a tad N--- even though it benefits my area- I don't trust it all based on no upper air soundings. watch the 12Z correct back E and S. but a person at least has some hope-

[Grizzcoat]

06Z PAR GFS through 114--

[james1976]

Interesting stuff with the GFS.......but idk. Yeah, 12z runs will be interesting.

[BigDizBliz420]

the GFS was really far off on the last snows

[GDR]

Chicago looks to be in a good spot