Super Bowl Weekend Major Snowstorm

[james1976]

Bud, those GFS ensembles are nice!
Nice to see Euro back in the game.

[East Dubzz]

Yeah, the bickering is done now. I will delete any post that is an attack at another member and if you keep going, more actions will be taken. Don't want to test a man that is still bitter after the Blackhawks defeat last night

[BigDizBliz420]

Note the difference in northern stream strength, so this comes north

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_030_300_wnd_ht.gif

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/18/nam_namer_024_300_wnd_ht.gif

[Money]

Good majority of the euro ensemble members are north of the op and several are really juiced/north with significant hits. 

[BigDizBliz420]

Hearing the Euro ensembles are good hits

[Grizzcoat]

[Jaycee]

Rain/Snow line

 

day3_psnow_gt_04.gif

Well, that's cute lol... our area apparently has a 0% chance of 4". I've never been a fan of their maps though, they busted hard for us last year plenty of times.

 

Rain/Snow breaking out 39-42hr on NAM in Eastern Nebraska, looks pretty similar to the 12z so far.

[Snowlover76]

day3_psnow_gt_04.gif

Move that map a little more west and I'll be happy.

[Tom]

12z Euro Ens/Control....I took a look at the individual members and there are a few amped up solutions.  However, most of them have a corridor of heavy snow similar to the ensemble map below, give or take 50-100 miles north/south.

[Grizzcoat]

Rain/Snow line

 

Well, that's cute lol... our area apparently has a 0% chance of 4". I've never been a fan of their maps though, they busted hard for us last year plenty of times.

 

Rain/Snow breaking out 39-42hr on NAM in Eastern Nebraska, looks pretty similar to the 12z so far.

You gotta remember that is just from 00Z SUN to  00Z MOn-- doesn't take into account anything before that.

[BigDizBliz420]

NAM stronger with northern stream energy but is going to narrowly miss a phase but step in the right direction

[Tom]

18z NAM...

[Tony]

Still has that nasty northern cutoff.

[clintbeed1993]

Another miss for Nebraska.  Time to wave the white flag me thinks.

[dubuque473]

I like not being in the bullseye a few days out.

[Snowlover76]

This keeps looking worse for Lincoln. Ugh.

[Jaycee]

This keeps looking worse for Lincoln. Ugh.

Another one bites the dust. Literally. Because there could likely be blowing dust here soon enough. I hope the GGEM is onto something. I wish we could phase this puppy sooner. 

 

NAM actually gives us a hefty amount of precip but it starts as rain. Again, like last year, we should be willing to take anything, to prevent the drought from getting even worse here.

[winterfreak]

Raging rain storm it looks like ugh oh well.

[Seahawkfan]

Snow maps are close to being real good for me just need to do a little slight shifting. Go 12 repeat Superbowl titles.

[Snowlover76]

Another one bites the dust. Literally. Because there could likely be blowing dust here soon enough. I hope the GGEM is onto something. I wish we could phase this puppy sooner. 

 

NAM actually gives us a hefty amount of precip but it starts as rain. Again, like last year, we should be willing to take anything, to prevent the drought from getting even worse here.

Yup.  Not looking good water wise here in NE. 

[Jaycee]

Yup.  Not looking good water wise here in NE. 

 

Strangely enough, the EURO now gives us the most snow. I'm not sure why this can't phase sooner with a wide open GOM. This could really be a bowling ball if it just phased quicker. Haven't really looked at a SLP map so I guess I can't see the low position. Are there still 2 different lows that eject seperately?? 

 

EDIT: 18z GFS looks way more amped than the NAM at 36 hr. Precip is much more widespread.

[clintbeed1993]

Strangely enough, the EURO now gives us the most snow. I'm not sure why this can't phase sooner with a wide open GOM. This could really be a bowling ball if it just phased quicker. Haven't really looked at a SLP map so I guess I can't see the low position. Are there still 2 different lows that eject seperately?? 

 

EDIT: 18z GFS looks way more amped than the NAM at 36 hr. Precip is much more widespread.

 

Eh, pretty bad for Nebraska still.  All the moisture seems to stay down in Kansas.

[Jaycee]

Eh, pretty bad for Nebraska still.  All the moisture seems to stay down in Kansas.

Yup. It's a horrible run for us, actually. Doesn't even look like a dusting. Central Illinois will do very well with this storm. I'm a few runs away from writing this guy off. 

 

 

EDIT: Chicago does pretty well with this, although it's further east, the cutoff isn't nearly as strong. 3-5" is plausible with 6" down near Kankakee. Meh. Can't win around here man! 2 years in a row 

[Tom]

18z GFS a little farther north I'd say....

[Tom]

18z GFS full run...I'd like to see what the ensembles show this run...looks like 4-5" for ORD, maybe more if LES turns out better.

[Money]

Even brings an inch or two up here

[Trinomial]

Are these maps showing accurate totals with correct ratios? Thanks!

[Jaycee]

A whopping .2" of precipitation around here. 

 

[Tom]

Even brings an inch or two up here

The northern stream seems to be getting a bit better each run for you up there...

[Tom]

Are these maps showing accurate totals with correct ratios? Thanks!

They seem to be with the 18z GFS showing between 0.2 - 0.3qpf...temps are in the low 20's to fluff up those totals.

[winterfreak]

GFS is depressing. I get excited after the EURO and intrigued after the NAM and boom lol. Not our winter. Nice looking snow for central Illinois and central Indiana though.

[Tony]

Nice write-up by LOT:

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE INCREASING
POTENTIAL OF A DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EVENT ACROSS AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF MY AREA SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS DURING
THIS PERIOD. OVERALL...THE MAIN DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS NOW
EJECTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE MAIN COMPLEXITIES WITH THIS SYSTEM...IS IF AND
HOW MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY...EMANATING FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH...GETS TAPPED INTO BY THIS DIGGING SYSTEM.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS FLIPPED FLOPPED A BIT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL GET
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT APPEARS ONE OF THE MAIN KEYS THAT
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOWFALL ENDS UP GETTING
ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL BE THE TIMING OF COLDER AIRMASS/COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AHEAD OF A STOUT 1044
MB HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD SET UP A GOOD BAROCLINIC ZONE POTENTIALLY
RIGHT ACROSS THE HEART OF MY CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RAMP UP TO
OUR SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL DEVELOPMENT IN THE COLD AIR ACROSS
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS
THIS SNOWFALL WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTHWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS BY
SATURDAY EVENING...AND MAY END UP IMPACTING MOST OF MY AREA TO SOME
DEGREE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THAT A DECENT
BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS COULD SET UP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION AXIS TRIES TO DEVELOP WITH THE
925-850 MB LAYER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD AIRMASS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON WHERE
EXACTLY THIS ENHANCED MESOSCALE FORCING SETS UP IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...GIVEN THIS SYSTEM IS 60+ HOURS AWAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOST
AREAS MAY SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THE
POTENTIAL OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.

THE OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER WITH THIS EVENT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. AS THE COLDER AIRMASS BEGINS TO SPILL
SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE COLDER AIRMASS...FEATURING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE INVERSION HEIGHTS REACHING UP AROUND 5-6,000 FEET...WHICH
SHOULD EXTEND WELL INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THEREFORE...WE CANT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SNOW TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. AT THIS TIME...I HAVE REMAINED A BIT
CONSERVATIVE ON SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...MAINLY DUE
TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM.

 

[Snowlover76]

A whopping .2" of precipitation around here. 

 

Yup.  I am right there with ya.

 

If we didn't have all that rain in the late fall, we would be in a serious situation right now. 

[Tom]

Here is LOT's take on snowfall totals this far out...

[BigDizBliz420]

Good map! 

[Scott26]

I hope we can see some better phasing potential as this gets closer. With many ensembles still showing some amplified solutions, I don't think that can be ruled out yet.

[Tony]

Last couple nights the 0z runs looked pretty darn good so here's to tonight's runs...cheers!

[Grizzcoat]

NAM further N with precip in IA--- even further N then 12Z  --

[Money]

Gonna be a good run for Chicago

[Madtown]

Cheers 6 beers in waiting g for models and watching badgers east on the ice tonight