Super Bowl Weekend Major Snowstorm

[winterfreak]

GFS is even worse this run lol.

[Grizzcoat]

It's basically comes down to the Canadian vs. the World-- and it's not hockey.

[winterfreak]

The 84hr NAM actually looks intriguing but it's the 84hr NAM.

[Madtown]

Maybe stop putting the word major on all the tread titles...I don't think a single one has been major...lol...anyways got some nice rain showers in the forecast tonight. The beat goes on.

[jaster220]

Maybe stop putting the word major on all the tread titles...I don't think a single one has been major...lol...anyways got some nice rain showers in the forecast tonight. The beat goes on.

 

Also, the common theme is the word "potential" in all those thread titles. Missed that with this one though. Ma Nature says "oops"

[FV-Mike]

For what it is worth, Skilling said at the noon broadcast that models have a real tough time with systems down in Mexico.

[East Dubzz]

It's basically comes down to the Canadian vs. the World-- and it's not hockey.

This comment actually made me laugh.

 

Oh, and for the rest, I know everyone is frustarted, but some just need to chill out. Some comments are getting a little out of hand.

[GDR]

The 84hr NAM actually looks intriguing but it's the 84hr NAM.

like we heard before you can't go off the NAM

[Niko]

I think we should take all models with a grain of salt right now. Its way too early to even think about what will happen. Lets wait for this clipper to pass on by first and see what the storm decides to do afterwards.

[Tom]

When comparing the AO during the previous 2 cycles of this storm in the LRC pattern (Nov 4th & Dec 15th), at both times it was in positive territory and the jet stream wasn't able to dig enough south to pick up this system out of the 4 corners region and phase.  I'm questioning the modeling today as all of them (except for the GGEM) are not digging the northern stream enough south to pick up the system.

 

GFS/EURO both have the AO around (-1) during this time frame which would suggest the northern jet stream  would dig farther south.  Hopefully we see a different solution amongst the models tonight.

[Geos]

For what it is worth, Skilling said at the noon broadcast that models have a real tough time with systems down in Mexico.

 

They lack the sampling network coverage down there, especially in the northern desert areas.

[Scott26]

The gulf low lagging behind the arctic front spells trouble for anything other then a suppressed and weak solution. With nothing sampled yet there is no reason to throw in the towel though. Models don't have a handle of the speed and timing of the northern and southern stream.

[Tom]

00z NAM looking different this run.,..

[Geos]

Pretty good slug of snow for southeastern NE and SW IA on the NAM at 69-72 hours.

[Tom]

Much different...GOM feeding into this system into the Plains...step in the right direction???  Looks like it ejects later and may allow more time to phase???

[Tom]

Look at that moisture supply....

 

Edit: It's even showing some minimal convection feeding into this system towards the end of the run.

[Tom]

00z NAM...full run...still snowing and just starting to take shape from what I can see using Instant Wx Maps.

[Snowlover76]

Maybe the 12z runs did have bad data. 

[Tony]

Oz runs beef up the qpf and the 12z runs take it away. See what the rest of modeling looks like.

[Tom]

Live by the models, die by the models...never give up hope knowing you have the LRC in your back pocket.

[Tony]

Not only does it have GOM moisture feed but Atlantic moisture as well. If all the players play nice together this could turn into something really big. Liking that northern stream coming back into play.

[winterfreak]

Still too north and warm. D**n still waiting on our first snow since mid December.

[Tom]

Not only does it have GOM moisture feed but Atlantic moisture as well. If all the players play nice together this could turn into something really big. Liking that northern stream coming back into play.

Yup, -AO coming into play.  Hoping GFS comes back to what is was showing last night.

[Tony]

How could it not. It wouldn't want to be shown up by the lonely NAM.

[Grizzcoat]

If the GFS flips again this close to the event--- I don't know what to think. If it does,, will be something i can't remember in 16 years of following this stuff.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Live by the models, die by the models...never give up hope knowing you have the LRC in your back pocket.

 

LRC only gives the general picture, though, that's the problem, and phasing is a tricky thing, so it's still quite likely there is very little or no phase at all.

[Scott26]

00Z NAM would have ended up looking pretty similar to the Euro and GFS from last night.

[Tom]

LRC only gives the general picture, though, that's the problem, and phasing is a tricky thing, so it's still quite likely there is very little or no phase at all.

Not really true, it does give you a storm track.  To say this would be a gulf low  wouldn't follow the LRC pattern.  Obviously phasing is an issue with every system but if you were to forecast this system and knowing what the AO is doing, my money would be on better phasing.

[Money]

0z GFS coming in much, much better through 69

[Grizzcoat]

Agree-- precip gets to about I-80 in IA and stops-- at least through hr 75

[Tom]

0z GFS coming in much, much better through 69

It's colder as well, gives snow to people in Omaha....

[Tom]

Seems like the arctic front keeps this storm from going farther north on the 00z GFS...

[Grizzcoat]

baby steps---

[Tom]

Still too north and warm. D**n still waiting on our first snow since mid December.

00z GFS gives KC snow this run...

[Scott26]

The 00Z GFS is a huge step back in the right direction.

[Tom]

Now we need to pay attention to model bias's and differentiate what each model is doing with this system.  Glad to see the 00z GFS back with a decent snow storm for the Plains/Midwest

[winterfreak]

So about three inches now being shown. Much better look with the GFS. Looking forward to the EURO suite.

[winterfreak]

Check that widespread five inches.

[Grizzcoat]

Any one wanna guess on the CAN and Euro???   Me thinks the CAN holds serve (JB was talking about how well the model has done recently in the longer range) and the Euro brings back the storm -- likely further to the N and NE compared to the GFS

[Tom]

Any one wanna guess on the CAN and Euro???   Me thinks the CAN holds serve (JB was talking about how well the model has done recently in the longer range) and the Euro brings back the storm -- likely further to the N and NE compared to the GFS

I agree, been talking about how the GGEM has done the best with the overall pattern.  I think the GGEM will be another "Gem".  I'm skeptical about the Euro as it has been acting up lately.  Until this storm comes onshore midday tomorrow, i think there will be adjustments.