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The overnight low here at my house was 66 the official low at the airport was a little cooler at 63. At this time it is cloudy and 69 here with a Dew point of 63. There was no rain here yesterday but in northeastern lower and to the east there was some storms yesterday with some high winds  and heavy rain

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36 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Only received .10 inches yesterday very disappointing. Some locations received over an inch.  Really hope the GFS is right in the extended. Today I am off to the hay field.

I would have thought you were going to get much more than that the way that line looked. I guess that is .10” more than I got. 😀

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A secondary area of heavier rain moved through MBY after the initial line moved through yesterday which gave me a total of 0.88". The next week looks pretty dry at the moment so I feel very fortunate.

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1: 4.5"), (Apr 20: 3.1"); Season total: 15.5" (87% of normal 17.8")
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I hope you don’t mind the music in the background, but this was a vid I took of what was the beginnings of the severe warned storm that eventually tracked S/SE towards ORD from where I was located.  I just had a feeling this storm cluster would deliver the goods.  The sounds of constant rumbles of thunder was a tell tale sign these storms were energized and exploding right overhead.  I wish I had a wider view but it’s all I could manage.

As the saying goes, “when it rains, it pours”….well, it sure as heck did!  ORD picked up a daily record breaking 1.50” of much needed rainfall yesterday.  Boy, it couldn’t have come in a better time.  We desperately needed a soaker.

At this time, the sun is about to rise and the DP is at a comfy 54F and temp in the mid 60’s.  Ahhh, feels great to have the window open!

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GFS for the win???  Both the Euro and GGEM are backing off the extreme Heat migrating farther east and north mid week for the MW/Lakes region.  Gotta say, the GFS/GEFS have been rock steady and doing a much better job predicting the forthcoming pattern.  I'm digging what the model is showing as the ACTIVE part of the LRC is showing up later next week after Father's Day weekend.  BTW, great wx is in the cards for fishing and boating next weekend for a lot of us.  It may actually be a bit to cool/cold for a few of you up in the Northwoods.

The EPS is playing catch up and starting to see the active and cooler pattern which the GEFS have been indicating.  Should be plentiful precip chances for the heartland with a NW Flow pattern aloft ushering in an unusually active jet stream during the middle/later part of June.  An interesting wx pattern is in the cards...the signal is there...

 

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The overnight low here 64 the official low at GRR was 65 no rain fell yesterday. After 12 days the mean for the month at Grand Rapids is now at 73.7 that is a departure of +7.3  if this was to carry to the end of the month it would place this June in 3rd place on the warmest all time list. So far this month the official high has been 90 and the low so far has been 46. Last year the mean for June was 69.6 the high for the month was 93 and the low was 42. At this time it is clear and 77 here at my house.

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Guess most models are suddenly pulling the heat out of the heartland late month. Thinking should see it try to roar back once, but really that should be it. Really thought a major stable ridge would be hard to get rid of, but it has no staying power.

Like Tom said, interesting stuff. 

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TS warnings up for east coast. Their hurricane season is getting started. I'm with Joe Bastardi on keeping the highest impact areas over the east coast this season with lesser amounts of tropical influence over the Gulf and possibly one coming straight on at western Florida late year. I had that pretty well nailed down from the start. Looking to see ridging stand back up over the west coast and drought risks to continue out there. That's a megadrought starting on that map and pending La Niña is no help. 

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Not winter weather related for this forum, but pretty interesting data on severe storms and how the season has worsened and shortened for the US from a chase forum I am on.

"In short, this suggests that between 2012-2020, the entire month of June underperformed 1950-2020 climo as a whole by a large margin WRT coverage of reasonably favorable Plains environments. For early-mid June, 2012-2020 mean coverage is frequently under the 5th percentile for what you'd expect of random 10-year draws from the full 60-year distribution. Also plainly evident is the mid-late May spike in favorable environments, corresponding to what many of us have called the "compressed seasons" of recent years. Basically, it's been a good period to chasecation within the traditional May 15-30 window, but middling to awful outside of that. In fairness, early-mid April have also offered favorable environments significantly more often than the 60-year climo as a whole, although the absolute payoff to chasers so early in the year is fairly limited.

Now consider that when I'm able to add 2021 in a few weeks, the 10-year running coverage for June will very likely -- astoundingly -- fall even further. For all the talk of the sky falling and climate change wiping out all convection that can at times have an irrational, knee-jerk component, June is the segment of the core Plains season I'm really worried about going forward. This run the past 10 years is appalling from just about any perspective. When you combine the empirical data on environments over the past decade with fairly uncontroversial impacts from AGW, including warming Gulf SSTs (e.g., the NHC talking about moving the official start of Atlantic hurricane season to mid-May), there's a lot to unpack."

env_timeseries.scplainsbox.2012-2020.png

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3 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Not winter weather related for this forum, but pretty interesting data on severe storms and how the season has worsened and shortened for the US from a chase forum I am on.

"In short, this suggests that between 2012-2020, the entire month of June underperformed 1950-2020 climo as a whole by a large margin WRT coverage of reasonably favorable Plains environments. For early-mid June, 2012-2020 mean coverage is frequently under the 5th percentile for what you'd expect of random 10-year draws from the full 60-year distribution. Also plainly evident is the mid-late May spike in favorable environments, corresponding to what many of us have called the "compressed seasons" of recent years. Basically, it's been a good period to chasecation within the traditional May 15-30 window, but middling to awful outside of that. In fairness, early-mid April have also offered favorable environments significantly more often than the 60-year climo as a whole, although the absolute payoff to chasers so early in the year is fairly limited.

Now consider that when I'm able to add 2021 in a few weeks, the 10-year running coverage for June will very likely -- astoundingly -- fall even further. For all the talk of the sky falling and climate change wiping out all convection that can at times have an irrational, knee-jerk component, June is the segment of the core Plains season I'm really worried about going forward. This run the past 10 years is appalling from just about any perspective. When you combine the empirical data on environments over the past decade with fairly uncontroversial impacts from AGW, including warming Gulf SSTs (e.g., the NHC talking about moving the official start of Atlantic hurricane season to mid-May), there's a lot to unpack."

env_timeseries.scplainsbox.2012-2020.png

I think they actually need to have solid science to go with this stuff instead of "ooh look! Be afraid!" We can all poke at the what and change the rules, but I think they need to wait before creating more confusion and chaos in things than they already are. Not all changes are good or justified. Some stuff was just right and needed left alone.

They could probably do part of the 1980s that way. Then we had the 1989-1995 years where convection roared.

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Hello from Houston! Currently 96/74/109.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 3 (Last: 7/26)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 (Last: 7/26)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Looking out into Father's Day weekend, there is a storm system that's brewing up for the tail end of the weekend that is likely to put a damper on outdoor activities for some of us on Father's Day.  Although, on the bright side, this is prob shaping up to become a widespread soaker for the corn belt region.  Last nights 00z Euro advertising a good soaking...

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Interestingly, I just realized we will welcome the Summer Solstice late Sunday evening....and tracking a summer time cutter???  A fascinating wx pattern along with an unusually strong piece of energy that looks to eject out of the Rockies later this weekend and develop in the Plains/MW and cut up into the GL's.  Things are going to get interesting next week.

 

Meantime, the models are all honing in on a powerhouse NE PAC ridge in the week 2 period...

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As expected the 10 day warm period is now over. As is the norm in our part of the world it generally dose not stay either very warm or very cold for real long periods of time. The upcoming week looks to have several days near and even below average. Now while generally the same can be said for rain fall in our area so far all major reporting locations are well below average rain fall. Not sure how long that will last but that too will come to a end at some point. The overnight low here at my house was 62 and at this time it is partly cloudy and 63. There was no rain fall here over the weekend. So it is back to watering the grass and garden. So far the tomato plants are doing well and I have "baby" tomatoes on several of my plants and others are flowering well. The grass is green yet in my yard but in places that are not watered there is now some brown showing up.

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Hot week ahead with humidity increasing.  Beautiful morning here, the low dropped to 64as we've had a little break in the humidity.  It is getting dry for the spots who missed the rain Friday night, hope we can get some more widespread rain soon.

Tab2FileL.png

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Looking out into Father's Day weekend, there is a storm system that's brewing up for the tail end of the weekend that is likely to put a damper on outdoor activities for some of us on Father's Day.  Although, on the bright side, this is prob shaping up to become a widespread soaker for the corn belt region.  Last nights 00z Euro advertising a good soaking...

1.png

 

Interestingly, I just realized we will welcome the Summer Solstice late Sunday evening....and tracking a summer time cutter???  A fascinating wx pattern along with an unusually strong piece of energy that looks to eject out of the Rockies later this weekend and develop in the Plains/MW and cut up into the GL's.  Things are going to get interesting next week.

 

Meantime, the models are all honing in on a powerhouse NE PAC ridge in the week 2 period...

2.png

 

 

 

That's the harbinger for future seasons I've been talking about. It's 2 weeks early (in my mind) which makes any lasting heat over the central conus impossible going forward. I had us at least getting summer thru the 4th but this is fast.

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Hot week ahead with humidity increasing.  Beautiful morning here, the low dropped to 64as we've had a little break in the humidity.  It is getting dry for the spots who missed the rain Friday night, hope we can get some more widespread rain soon.

Tab2FileL.png

I drove around town and the country yesterday. Starting to see a little stress. Most irrigation has started already or will this week. My son is laying out pipe this morning with relatives. People with sprinkler systems are running them now it appears. 

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20 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

That's the harbinger for future seasons I've been talking about. It's 2 weeks early (in my mind) which makes any lasting heat over the central conus impossible going forward. I had us at least getting summer thru the 4th but this is fast.

 

21 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

That's the harbinger for future seasons I've been talking about. It's 2 weeks early (in my mind) which makes any lasting heat over the central conus impossible going forward. I had us at least getting summer thru the 4th but this is fast.

I still think there is a window for a burst of heat around here right around the open of July.  After that, however, I’m seeing signals of a major trough developing across the central CONUS.

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14 minutes ago, Tom said:

 

I still think there is a window for a burst of heat around here right around the open of July.  After that, however, I’m seeing signals of a major trough developing across the central CONUS.

I'm still looking for it too, but all signs point to it being a transient heat blast at best now before re anchoring in the west.

It'll be hot but a non-event to the cool we'll see after it. That's the better way to say it. 

That ridge/pattern has had eyes on the SW since the first one in March warmed us back out of winter. With no Niño to knock it around, it's a semi-stable block.

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I sure hope the Euro has the right idea for Sunday.  That would be a welcome sight.  

The GFS has a decent MCS event for MN into WI Thursday night into Friday AM, and appears to have the classic look to it where it drops almost due south and then clips eastern Iowa and parts of northern IL as well.  It has shown this the past few runs now.

 

prateptype_cat.us_mw.png

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Have a high of 101 in the grids for Thursday. 100s are actually pretty rare here. Only hit 100+ 5x since 2013.

Crazy to think you all are going to have a hotter summer in actual temperatures than I will. Crazy stuff. This will be a very hot week for a lot of folks, as advertised right now.

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DVN saying we may get more active after this week.

 

.CLIMATE...
Week 2...June 22-28...the CPC outlook shows odds favoring near to above
normal precipitation in this time period. Model indications focus mainly
on the early part of the week in our area where northwest flow may set
up an active MCS pattern in the Upper and Middle Mississippi
River Valley. But it is too early to predict what sort of impact
this may have on developing drought conditions.
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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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Texas is bracing for yet another collapse of the grid.   
no one is talking about the gorilla in the room.   So many people moving here and building meanwhile power plants are not building and take a very long time to bring online.  
 

So, they have the gall to lay it all on us and our usage.  Elderly can’t do this. Heart patients, etc. Really?  Our fault??  
We’ll be hitting 100*. 
 

So, if you don’t hear from me again, it’s been swell.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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57 minutes ago, Andie said:

Texas is bracing for yet another collapse of the grid.   
no one is talking about the gorilla in the room.   So many people moving here and building meanwhile power plants are not building and take a very long time to bring online.  
 

So, they have the gall to lay it all on us and our usage.  Elderly can’t do this. Heart patients, etc. Really?  Our fault??  
We’ll be hitting 100*. 
 

So, if you don’t hear from me again, it’s been swell.  

Don’t blame Abbott and the rest of the GOP. They were busy trying to secretly pass voter restrictions, attacking women’s rights and their bodies, attacking COVID measures, and allowing permitless carry, instead of updating the power grid like they were told to a decade ago.

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1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Don’t blame Abbott and the rest of the GOP. They were busy trying to secretly pass voter restrictions, attacking women’s rights and their bodies, attacking COVID measures, and allowing permitless carry, instead of updating the power grid like they were told to a decade ago.

Has nothing to do with Austin.  The Grid Gods have been warned for years.  We needed another big plant.  ERCOT didn’t propose another power plant. The signs were there 20 yrs ago.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Rise 'N Shine...it's a very comfortable 62F this morning...the windows are open letting the cool air inside while the birds are chirping.  You can't ask for a better morning!  Heading up into the upper 70's today and I'm looking forward to some pleasant weather today and tomorrow.  Next chance of precip late has been showing up for late Thu/Fri.

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0z Euro for the frontal system on Thu/Fri...

1.png

 

Trends still holding onto the idea of a wide spread regional soaker for the Sun/Mon period...welcoming in the Summer Solstice...

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Boy, I'm diggin' what the models are sippin'...."cool aid" that is...some folks up north may get a taste of early Autumn wx as a powerful CF blasts through the region.  Both the GFS/EURO are both in agreement that a refreshing Canadian airmass will inundate the northern half of the Sub, primarily focusing the coldest air for those up north.  Nonetheless, the A/C's will be taking a break and the Northwoods folks may be burning an extra log or two in their fireplace to warm things up!  #bonfireseason

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The idea of a forthcoming active period next week is still on tap.  This is a solid signal for the Upper MW/GL's region to see relief from the drought.  The EPS also agrees in the general theme and is trending wetter for a lot of us around the eastern ag belt.

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_6.png

 

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I'm going to thoroughly go over the LR data later today and after briefly looking into the climate models the wx pattern may very well be getting exciting for tracking storms.  Severe Wx potential looks higher than normal.  Volatility will be the theme for the later parts of June into July.

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Boy, I'm diggin' what the models are sippin'...."cool aid" that is...some folks up north may get a taste of early Autumn wx as a powerful CF blasts through the region.  Both the GFS/EURO are both in agreement that a refreshing Canadian airmass will inundate the northern half of the Sub, primarily focusing the coldest air for those up north.  Nonetheless, the A/C's will be taking a break and the Northwoods folks may be burning an extra log or two in their fireplace to warm things up!  #bonfireseason

While lows in the 40's are not uncommon in both upper and northern lower Michigan in June and even the 30's for lows are not all that uncommon. I remember have frost in the AM while camping in the UP in July. 

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No rain here yesterday but there was rain not too far away and there was a nice rainbow late yesterday afternoon. There are now more areas that are showing more brown grass. The overnight low here at my house was 57 and it looks like it will be 59 at GRR. At this time it is clear and 61 here.

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The final half of may i had measurable  rain on 14 of 15 days.  In june  I have a gran total of 6/100.  A pop up.  Basically  no rain the first 15 days of June and barely a cloud.  6 days over 90f.  I love living in Iowa, but these wild swings  in weather here drive  me crazy.  I lived in 2 east coast states 39 years and these  harsh ups and downs almost never happened.  But is the norm in southeast Iowa.

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We are coming up to the half way mark for June and not far away for the half way mark for the year. Here are some rain fall totals from the major reporting locations here in west Michigan all are well below average as of this dated. Grand Rapids for June 0.63" a departure of -1.25" YTD 9.18" departure of -7.72 (there has been even less rain fall here at my house) Muskegon June 0.49" departure of -0.95" YTD 7.95" departure of -7.23" Holland June 0.51" departure of -1.22" YTD 6.97" departure of -7.73" to the east at Lansing June 0.30" a departure of -1.95" YTD 7.64" a departure of -6.93" as you can see all reporting locations are more than a half foot below average for the year so far. 

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11 hours ago, Andie said:

Has nothing to do with Austin.  The Grid Gods have been warned for years.  We needed another big plant.  ERCOT didn’t propose another power plant. The signs were there 20 yrs ago.  

Yeah if only the government of that state would have done something about it to help protect it's citizens.... I know, it's all about government staying out business, even if that's forcing a company to update it's infrastructure or going out and finding another company to come in and build a plant🙄

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