February 2014 in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Get those guesses in now on the contest!

[Snow]

I think mid morning Saturday and lasting til at least Midnight.

 

I think so also, even at hour 192, it still shows ESE winds at the surface coming out of the gorge and into PDX. What helps is that the Gorge and eastern basin will be snow covered. This system doesn't have very strong southerly winds as well. This could be January 2004 all over again where it took several days to scour out the cold air and shut off the gorge winds.

[GHweatherChris]

I think so also, even at hour 192, it still shows ESE winds at the surface coming out of the gorge and into PDX. What helps is that the Gorge and eastern basin will be snow covered. This system doesn't have very strong southerly winds as well. This could be January 2004 all over again where it took several days to scour out the cold air and shut off the gorge winds.

I don't live down there, so none of that helps me.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Going by the trends all winter a weaker and further south track is likely. Poo

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Going by the trends all winter a weaker and further south track is likely. Poo

delete that. Where the he'll did poo come from??

[TT-SEA]

Not a fan of the 00Z ECMWF.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a fan of the 00Z ECMWF.

 

To cold?

[stuffradio]

delete that. Where the he'll did poo come from??

Do we really need to get into the biology of the Human body?

[TT-SEA]

To cold?

 

 

Too fast with the transition.    

 

Also did a comparison of the 00Z last night, 12Z, and the new 00Z... the cold is not as far south on the latest run during the middle of the week.   

[Jesse]

Too fast with the transition.

 

Also did a comparison of the 00Z last night, 12Z, and the new 00Z... the cold is not as far south on the latest run during the middle of the week.

So much to worry about. So little time.

 

Do you ever see your family?

[Snow]

Too fast with the transition.    

 

Also did a comparison of the 00Z last night, 12Z, and the new 00Z... the cold is not as far south on the latest run during the middle of the week.   

 

The 0z ECMWF keeps the cold air longer than the 0z GFS if you look at the 0C 850 line at hour 192.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

San Fran also gets -10C 850 mb temps on the 00z EURO...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EURO is fine.... Relax good lord. Wednesday night 00z will iron out the finer moisture details. Well, I won't have any power probably 25,000+ outages with the east wind storm coming.

[TT-SEA]

It was just a casual observation on the 00Z ECMWF.   Obviously still cold.  

[Gradient Keeper]

You have an ensemble mean of -17c on models, and the likelihood that this event will be 3-5c colder than what we had in December, couple that with tremendous overrunning potential after Friday. Also, add in that we're finally seeing a significant Arctic blast in February. There is no reason to look for any negatives right now. I'm not that's for sure.

[Snow]

I will be the first one to say it but I do not believe PDX will make it above freezing on Saturday and Sunday. I see all snow or snow/ice. I don't think PDX will lose it's easterly winds.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You have an ensemble mean of -17c on models, and the likelihood that this event will be 3-5c colder than what we had in December, couple that with tremendous overrunning potential after Friday. Also, add in that we're finally seeing a significant Arctic blast in February. There is no reason to look for any negatives right now. I'm not that's for sure.

 

We can always be negative!

[brody]

We can always be negative!

I see what you did there

[snow_wizard]

Down to 32 here now. Looking forward to a solid week of cold weather.

[IbrChris]

You have an ensemble mean of -17c on models, and the likelihood that this event will be 3-5c colder than what we had in December, couple that with tremendous overrunning potential after Friday. Also, add in that we're finally seeing a significant Arctic blast in February. There is no reason to look for any negatives right now. I'm not that's for sure.

 

Strong possibility of highs 20-25 on the coldest day next week @ PDX with sub-freezing highs for up to 4 days (3 seems more likely). This is gonna be pretty phenomenal in historical terms even before the snow flies.

[Jesse]

San Fran also gets -10C 850 mb temps on the 00z EURO...

Sounds like the cold isn't making it far enough south...

[snow_wizard]

For some reason the ECMWF keeps insisting there will be some light snow for the Puget Sound region on Tuesday. Maybe an Arctic front or something? Going to be as dry as flour if it happens. That brings up the point the ECMWF maps presume the snowfall at a 10 to 1 ratio. This snow would be 20 or 30 to 1 in all likelihood. If so that would mean perhaps close to an inch for the area in question. I hope it's right, but I'm not going to hold my breath.

[IbrChris]

00z ECMWF really showed little change from the last two runs until the transition phase. Two days in the mid 20s at PDX with perhaps four days with highs 32 or below. Two nights near 15. Pretty amazing for Feb.

For Seattle the coldest high shown is 29 and low of 17.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm not sure how this was missed, but...

Hmmm, already down to 14 in Omak? Surface map clearly shows that a modified arctic boundary moved south into the Columbia Basin. Was this unexpected, or do I just need sleep.

 

PDT-OMK -5.5mb colder air filtering towards OR/WA border south of Pasco.

TTD-DLS -3.2mb may be increasing

 

I know Monday Night WRF shows arctic air moves into the area, but this seems colder much sooner to me...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/lrgnamsfcwbg.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm not sure how this was missed, but...

Hmmm, already down to 14 in Omak? Surface map clearly shows that a modified arctic boundary moved south into the Columbia Basin. Was this unexpected, or do I just need sleep.

 

PDT-OMK -5.5mb colder air filtering towards OR/WA border south of Pasco.

TTD-DLS -3.2mb may be increasing

 

I know Monday Night WRF shows arctic air moves into the area, but this seems colder much sooner to me...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/lrgnamsfcwbg.gif

WRF looks about right for 925mb temps -6c currently and TTD-DLS gradient... so it's initialized correctly.. but 14 in Omak seems pretty cold already.

[snow_wizard]

WRF looks about right for 925mb temps -6c currently and TTD-DLS gradient... so it's initialized correctly.. but 14 in Omak seems pretty cold already.

I noticed that also. They were 14 with A DP OF 8. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THEIR 850S ARE ONLY DOWN TO -8. Dare I say this cold snap might over perform? If so it will be epic.

[Gradient Keeper]

I noticed that also. They were 14 with A DP OF 8. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THEIR 850S ARE ONLY DOWN TO -8. Dare I say this cold snap might over perform? If so it will be epic.

Yeah, maybe so.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm, it's snowing at Hope, BC....http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=CYHE...

[brody]

Hmmm, it's snowing at Hope, BC....http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=CYHE...

That's interesting, not really seeing much on IR or WV that would show snow in that area

 

EDIT: the last 3 or 4 frames of IR show what appears to be a weak boundary moving S-SE 

[snow_wizard]

That's interesting, not really seeing much on IR or WV that would show snow in that area

 

EDIT: the last 3 or 4 frames of IR show what appears to be a weak boundary moving S-SE

I'm pretty hopeful for some snow sometime in the next 36 hours. A lot of cloud cover up north the WRF didn't show for tonight. It's obvious this event will be colder for northern areas than the December one. Temps are already colder in places like Prince George than they ever were around the time of our December cold wave. I'm feeling very good about it getting very cold this week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So I'm looking at the 06z NAM, and I know its the NAM and everything and that it has a cold bias, and that it usually shows to much precip, etc...

 

BUT, I notice it wants to break out light snow across NW Oregon with some kind of arctic frontal boundary on Wednesday morning.

 

The 510 thickness line is through SEA at this point as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This initial push of cold air seems to have definitely trended a bit cooler in the home stretch. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At hour 72 the 06z looks almost identical to the 00z.

 

Through hour 99 it is a bit slower with the cold air...

[Snow]

At hour 72 the 06z looks almost identical to the 00z.

 

Through hour 99 it is a bit slower with the cold air...

 

I notice that too. I would like the cold arctic air to be delayed if that means the overrunning system stays as scheduled.

[Snow]

Wow, where did this moisture come from!? Looks like Southern Valley will get nailed again.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_108_1000_500_thick.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z isn't quite as cold. The moisture on Thursday AM is a little bit further north, maybe some light snow up to EUG or Corvallis...

[Snow]

6z GFS is faster with the system for next weekend. Light snow starts Friday evening. This is good news.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_141_1000_500_thick.gif

[Snow]

6z GFS EXCELLENT! System just stalls out there in the Pacific rotating in moisture. Great snowstorm for Salem north. This is Saturday at 1pm.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_159_1000_500_thick.gif

[Snow]

18 Hours Later on Sunday 7am the system is still out there and has barely moved, WOW! Still all Snow.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_177_1000_500_thick.gif